January 2022

[Cromagnum]

Forecast was for it to be colder tonight. Not seeing it. It's still 41 here.

[djmike]

Dropping fast here in Beaumont. Already 35. Radiational cooling in full swing. Our low is supposed to be 27 tonight and 29 Saturday night.

[Iceresistance]

This is only 5-7 Days out on the 6z GEFS

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance Seems like most of the action this time will be confined to North Texas/ oklahoma, but still something interesting

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance Seems like most of the action this time will be confined to North Texas/ oklahoma, but still something interesting

15/20 (75%) of the Members has snow for Oklahoma &/or Texas in the same general timeframe.

EPS has it too, even though it's a little later & it's around 50% of it's members.

[Cpv17]

Texas needs a good snowpack to its north. Too much moderation going on with these fronts.

[Stratton20]

FWIW the 12z GFS does develop a strong coastal Low by next friday, though we would need the temps to trend much colder cor any sort of wintry mischief to occur

[don]

Next week sure looks active.We could potentially see 3 storm systems back to back.Whether any of them will be able to tap into any arctic air is another story though.We'll see...

[Kingwood36]

Any cold suppose to come down soon

[walsean1]

The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.

[Stratton20]

Don FWIW the 12z Euro shows some wintry mischief in central texas on day 5, all liquid precip in SE Texas though

[don]

The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.

Arctic air is going to be dry by nature.And the colder the air the drier it will be. To overcome that dryness you need a potent storm system to dig far enough south to tap into the moisture from the Pacific and or Gulf.The reason why we had a storm last year even with the dry arctic air in place is because the storm system dug south into Mexico. And then became negatively tilted over the area as it ejected across the state.Thus allowing it to tap into better moisture and also produce stronger lift over the state. If Thursdays system would have been stronger it would have been able to overcome the dry air better, and also would have been able to tap into colder arctic air from the north.A trough of low pressure or better yet a cut off low, that digs into north Mexico can be your best friend if you want a winter storm in Texas.

[DoctorMu]

There was a reason HGX didn't issue any watches or advisories. Nothing supported that and in places with wintery mix possible the chances were so low that it is a surprise nothing much happened except the small novelty in College Station.

It's not over 'til the Fat Lady melts.

[DoctorMu]

The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.

Arctic air is going to be dry by nature.And the colder the air the drier it will be. To overcome that dryness you need a potent storm system to dig far enough south to tap into the moisture from the Pacific and or Gulf.The reason why we had a storm last year even with the dry arctic air in place is because the storm system dug south into Mexico. And then became negatively tilted over the area as it ejected across the state.Thus allowing it to tap into better moisture and also produce stronger lift over the state. If Thursdays system would have been stronger it would have been able to overcome the dry air better, and also would have been able to tap into colder arctic air from the north.A trough of low pressure or better yet a cut off low, that digs into north Mexico can be your best friend if you want a winter storm in Texas.

Right. Something cold core out of the Rockies.

[jasons2k]

Had a forecast low of 28. Actual low was 30, which is fine with me. The wind is a tad chilly for me but it's not too bad. The dogs liked it on their walk. Hoping for a nice soaking on Monday since I got robbed the last two systems.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS still develops a coastal low next week/ weekend, alao has trended slightly colder, 12z run had rain around but temps in the upper 40’s to low 50’s, 18z run has rain now in the low to mid 40’s, something to watch as its 5-7 days out

[Iceresistance]

Snowfall signal on GEFS is gone.

[DoctorMu]

The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.

Arctic air is going to be dry by nature.And the colder the air the drier it will be. To overcome that dryness you need a potent storm system to dig far enough south to tap into the moisture from the Pacific and or Gulf.The reason why we had a storm last year even with the dry arctic air in place is because the storm system dug south into Mexico. And then became negatively tilted over the area as it ejected across the state.Thus allowing it to tap into better moisture and also produce stronger lift over the state. If Thursdays system would have been stronger it would have been able to overcome the dry air better, and also would have been able to tap into colder arctic air from the north.A trough of low pressure or better yet a cut off low, that digs into north Mexico can be your best friend if you want a winter storm in Texas.

Right. With enough energy, moisture, and cold air if Thursday's storm were stronger here we could have had a few inches of now and ice. If the precip is heavy it can cool the column and negate a warm nose. The precip. was just too light and most became verga, although we had some sleet, snow flurries, light rain.

[don]

HGX has an article up on the tornado outbreak earlier this month.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220108-to ... ng-houston

[Stratton20]

It appears the weather is about to get really boring after mondays storm system, I dont see anything of interest in the models in the near to long term, yawn, only thing I see is the dreaded SE Ridge showing up in the GFS