February 2022

[Ptarmigan]

Things could get interesting this week.

[Cpv17]

Things could get interesting this week.

This week may not be the only week that’s interesting in February.

[Stratton20]

18z EPS got really interesting, roughly 25-30 members of the 50 have snow in SE Texas this weekend, thats pretty significant support!

[DoctorMu]

These members keep heading south....

Yeah and there’s still plenty of time for it to trend even further south. Remember global models tend to underestimate the strength and speed of these Artic airmasses.

Yep. No surprise. It's all about timing whether it's cold enough when precip. starts. Don't forget column cooling to mitigate some warm nose. Expecting ice, sleet. freezing rain...hoping for snow.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, I really need to get a generator. Our ****** utility decided to surcharge me.

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/05 ... -gas-cold/

[DoctorMu]

3.4 inches of rain IMBY for the storm. More rain until about 10 pm.

[Ptarmigan]

These members keep heading south....

They need to stay north. I've got $300 worth of concert tickets for Friday night at the Toyota Center that I would like to attend.

Yes especially if it is freezing rain. I like having power on! Sleet is fine and snow too.

Freezing rain makes travel very treacherous. Snow can be nice, especially the powdery type.

[don]

0Z ICON still showing a disturbance moving in Thursday night.

[walsean1]

0Z ICON still showing a disturbance moving in Thursday night.

The question is how reliable is the 0z ICON compared to the other models when forecasting winter weather? This would be a major issue if this scenario played out.

[don]

The 0Z RGEM is also now showing the disturbance overnight Thursday/Friday morning.

[sau27]

I’ve been noticing the possibility of something Friday morning. On the gfs there is still available moisture and some energy passing by from the SW. the GFS is t producing precip right now but the ingredients are there.

[Stratton20]

00z CMC

[kyzsl51]

How accurate has the cmc been?

[Andrew]

How accurate has the cmc been?

Usually, it struggles especially with being too aggressive with temps/winter wx.

[walsean1]

Just being curious, I was looking at models on pivotal weather and nothing stands out for winter precipitation for at least Houston this week. They all keep it up north and northeast Texas. So I don’t know where people are getting these models that show ice or snow for Houston especially when the local nets have shut these possibilities down. Please don’t post false or made up maps if it is not legitimate forecast that are reliable. I come to this board for legitimate source if or weather information, not hype.

[TexasBreeze]

They are legit models not made up! Hasn't been any made up posts here. Rgem model still shows precip. Models are possibilities, not set in stone forecasts.

[walsean1]

This is a tweet from Jeff Linder this morning. Please don’t post hype, give reliable weather information.

https://twitter.com/jefflindner1/status ... 14145?s=21

[Kingwood36]

Lol..it's going to change..just because they say no ice NOW doesn't mean it won't change..that's why Jeff always says.."stay tuned for changes to the FORECAST"

[mcheer23]

Just being curious, I was looking at models on pivotal weather and nothing stands out for winter precipitation for at least Houston this week. They all keep it up north and northeast Texas. So I don’t know where people are getting these models that show ice or snow for Houston especially when the local nets have shut these possibilities down. Please don’t post false or made up maps if it is not legitimate forecast that are reliable. I come to this board for legitimate source if or weather information, not hype.

Not sure what you’re talking about……

[Stratton20]

walsean1 not hyping what is posted, their are several models that show wintry precip getting into or close to SE Texas, no ones hyping anything, plus the NWS is calling for a frozen mix. in my area so what those models are showing is not fake