February 2022

[DoctorMu]

UKMet:

[DoctorMu]

Post from Larry Cosgrove this morning

https://twitter.com/larrycosgrove/statu ... 97857?s=21

Please stop....The main Globals models (GFS,EURO) are not the only models that meteorologist and the NWS use. In fact more weight is typically put in the mesoscale models once you get within 48 hours or less.I'm not saying at all that we are going to have winter storm impacts here.I've only been saying to stay weather aware as things are not set in stone.Ive been saying the same thing for several days now, we need to watch the cutoff low sitting to our west later this week.As we will have cold air already established over the area.With the Subtropical jet overhead.

It's true, it won't be last year. We had 2 nights of record 5°F lows in a row!

[djmike]

And Beaumont stays high and dry…

[mcheer23]

12z CMC........

[Kingwood36]

12z CMC........

Only thing that is good fir is me not having to drive to work lol

[don]

Yep the 12Z Canadian now shows the disturbance also, looks like the ICON and RGEM now....

[jasons2k]

If it's below freezing, even freezing drizzle can cause a big mess. We used to see it almost every winter up in the DFW region...I-20 was the "Ice Belt"....now it's a novelty.

[don]

12Z UKMET also showing the system Thurday night/Friday morning.(Keep in mind what it shows as snow accumulation may actually be sleet/freezing rain.)

[Stratton20]

Its crazy how just a few days ago, models were saying nothing but cold rain here, amazing how fast that can change

[Kingwood36]

Its crazy how just a few days ago, models were saying nothing but cold rain here, amazing how fast that can change

That's what's so cool about weather..it's all an educated guess till u get within 3 days then it all starts to come in to picture

[Stormlover2020]

Still have plenty of time !!

[Cpv17]

Its crazy how just a few days ago, models were saying nothing but cold rain here, amazing how fast that can change

Actually if you go back to last week Don was posting maps of the Euro that looked a lot similar to what some of the models are showing now.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 true point, hopefully we soon get agreement on whats going to take place here thursday, maybe some winter weather advisories needed?

[sau27]

I still think Friday morning is our best shot at anything frozen. The GEFS has about half the members showing something now.

[don]

I still think Friday morning is our best shot at anything frozen. The GEFS has about half the members showing something now.

Yep that's the disturbance we're referring to.Some models have it coming in earlier or later than others though.The main window for us looks to be sometime Thursday night-Friday morning.

[mcheer23]

EURO nudged the Freezing Rain a little more into the area, and also has lingering moisture near the coast.

[don]

The NBM(important model blend that the NWS uses) is also starting to show ice along the coast.

[Stratton20]

Wow, hoping for more sleet than ice if it happens

[djmike]

Seems Jefferson county aint got time for that. Lol. Determined not to give me anything in Beaumont. Lol

[Stratton20]

djmike trust me you should be happy its not showing anything in your area, this would be a mostly ice event