February 2022

[Texashawk]

15z RAP

God, I can’t even imagine what 1.25+ Inches of ice would do to an urban area’s power grid and trees…

[Stratton20]

Jeez im on the edge of those heavy ice totals🥶 wouldnt be surprised if we get upgraded to a winter storm watch here

[don]

Taking a closer look at some of the 12Z models, it seems the reason why some are now getting more aggressive with the second disturbance. Is because the cut off low that the models have been showing is now ejecting earlier than they were showing before. Models had the cutoff low not ejecting till over the weekend or early next week. Now models show the cutoff low ejecting on Friday in tandem with a jet streak still over SE Texas causing a enhancement of lift Friday morning.Something to watch to see if the trends continue.

[jasons2k]

My Dad still lives up in Allen. Lots of friends still up there. I told them a few days ago to stock-up.

[tireman4]

This will be an everchanging situation. Even hour by hour, it is looking interesting. Stay tuned.

[DoctorMu]

Taking a closer look at some of the 12Z models, it seems the reason why some are now getting more aggressive with the second disturbance. Is because the cut off low that the models have been showing is now ejecting earlier than they were showing before. Models had the cutoff low not ejecting till over the weekend or early next week. Now models show the cutoff low ejecting on Friday in tandem with a jet streak still over SE Texas causing a enhancement of lift Friday morning.Something to watch to see if the trends continue.

TBF, very hard to predict...but yes, if the cut off low ejects while the cold air is in place...even more winter mix than predicted and deeper.

[tireman4]

If I am the HGX NWS, I am watching of course, but I am waiting. I think if this trend continues ( the trend is your friend), then you might see some serous conversation in this afternoon's AFD.

[Cpv17]

15z RAP

That looks bad for my location in central Wharton County.

[TexasBreeze]

DFW sure is in for it! Hate to see those half inch plus ice amounts plus sleet and snow over top that. Yeah the grid won't like any of this!

[Cromagnum]

So if we actually get freezing rain Friday morning, will it all be thawed by Friday afternoon / evening? Have friends driving in from Livingston that afternoon and we have plans in Downtown Houston Friday evening.

[sau27]

Email from Jeff - Metro area will be added to winter weather advisory.

[jasons2k]

So if we actually get freezing rain Friday morning, will it all be thawed by Friday afternoon / evening? Have friends driving in from Livingston that afternoon and we have plans in Downtown Houston Friday evening.

I would love to be going to that concert! hehe!

I have relatives who are supposed to drive down from Little Rock during the day on Friday. I don't know if that will happen.

We should get above freezing during the daytime Friday which will make the roads passable. Any leftover residual moisture may re-freeze overnight Friday into Saturday morning. I think you will be OK for the show but I would keep an eye on it for sure.

[jasons2k]

Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded southward to include all counties along and northwest of the US 59 corridor including the metro Houston area

High resolution models continue to trend slower with the ending of the precipitation across SE TX late Thursday night into Friday morning. At the same time the surface freezing line will progress southward on Thursday afternoon and evening toward the US 59 corridor and then toward the coast early Friday morning. There will likely be a period of a few hours on Thursday evening into Friday morning where light precipitation will be falling into a freezing/sub freezing air mass at the surface and some light ice accumulation on elevated surfaces will be possible (trees, power lines, bridges/overpasses, vehicles). Surface roadways and streets will remain too warm for any ice accumulation, but bridges/overpasses, connector ramps, flyovers, may develop some patchy ice.

Note: while freezing rain and ice will be possible during the day Thursday NW of metro Houston (Columbus, Brenham, Huntsville), the threat for freezing rain and any ice accumulation across Fort Bend, Harris, southern Waller, southern Montgomery Counties will be after 4-5pm on Thursday and most likely in the mid to late evening hours as the surface temperatures cool to and below freezing.

Temperatures will likely remain below freezing on Friday morning until 900-1000am for areas along and south of the US 59 corridor so any ice that does accumulate will be slow to melt until mid to late morning.

Preparations:
Use the remaining warm weather this afternoon to complete any needed preparation actions

This will not be a repeat of the February 2021 winter storm, but protective measures should be taken to help mitigate any potential freeze damage.

Plants: tropical and sensitive vegetation will need to be protected from the cold as temperatures will be at levels and for long enough durations to cause damage.

Pipes: Any exposed outside pipes need to be protected and sprinkler systems shut off and pipes drained. Pipes at water wells and livestock ponds need to be protected. Inside wall pipes on most houses will be fine with the current forecast

Pets: pets and livestock should be secured in proper shelter. Water supplies may freeze over.

People: make sure heaters are in proper working order. Do not use grills or stoves to heat houses and make sure space heaters have proper clearance.

Jeff Lindner

[don]

Here we go..wasn't expecting that this early since HGX tends to be more conservative than some of the surrounding WFO.

[Kingwood36]

Will it be extended to the coastal counties?

[TexasBreeze]

Will it be extended to the coastal counties?

I could see it going to the coastal counties later as the timing gets closer, especially if that secondary disturbance produces more!

[jasons2k]

Latest GFS has quite the temperature gradient on Saturday morning. 1F at DFW, 35F at Bush with most of Houston Metro staying above freezing.

[don]

From Wxman57

12Z GFS for IAH (Bush Airport in North Houston) indicates some precip in sub-freezing air here tomorrow night. Could be light freezing rain or sleet. Very warm aloft, so no snow.

[Kingwood36]

From Wxman57

12Z GFS for IAH (Bush Airport in North Houston) indicates some precip in sub-freezing air here tomorrow night. Could be light freezing rain or sleet. Very warm aloft, so no snow.

He's also said nothing here for the longest so I take what he says very optimistic lol

[DoctorMu]

Here we go..wasn't expecting that this early since HGX tends to be more conservative than some of the surrounding WFO.

Yep. Jeff is capitulating "early." Hope the road crews and power grid are ready.

It's 58°F here and NNE wind 7-10 mph. Front is past CLL and reinforcing advection is on its way.