May 2022
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captainbarbossa19
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If you enter a wetter pattern this time of year, it could not be at a better time. Last year the same thing happened and most of the summer featured average to above-average rainfall. Temperatures were about average to below-average too.
This Euro run coming up here is going to be interesting.
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20
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12z GFS showing some pretty big totals over the next 10 days
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Looking good!
The trend is your friend.
98°F here this afternoon, but at least the DP fell off some.
It looks like we'll be able to experience this weekend's FROPA and a few days in the 80s. Our son tested positive for COVID but he's had full vax + booster. No real symptoms and antigen test is negative...so, rescheduling for next week. The weather should be ideal in the 70s late next week in Minneapolis. They are are going to see a couple of cloudy 50°F weather after the FROPA...which I don't mind but would have made the heat feel worse upon return!
98°F here this afternoon, but at least the DP fell off some.
It looks like we'll be able to experience this weekend's FROPA and a few days in the 80s. Our son tested positive for COVID but he's had full vax + booster. No real symptoms and antigen test is negative...so, rescheduling for next week. The weather should be ideal in the 70s late next week in Minneapolis. They are are going to see a couple of cloudy 50°F weather after the FROPA...which I don't mind but would have made the heat feel worse upon return!
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Stratton20
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18z GFS has trended even wetter for SE Texas over the next 7-10 days, might have to watch the flooding potential next week despite dry grounds
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Looks like the warming in the Gulf has came to a stop for now.
If anything there’s been more cooling than warming in the past 7 days.
If anything there’s been more cooling than warming in the past 7 days.
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tireman4
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We have aways to the saturation point, but good point.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 6:47 pm 18z GFS has trended even wetter for SE Texas over the next 7-10 days, might have to watch the flooding potential next week despite dry grounds
The forecast of heavy rain is interesting. Anything can change. Heavy rain and flooding have occurred in May, like in 1907, 1929, 1981, 1989, 2015, and 2016.
We just might be able to turn the sprinklers off.
I’m still not completely sold on areas south of 10 getting much rain out of this.
Morning update from Jeff:
Much needed weather pattern change will unfold over the southern plains this weekend into next week.
High pressure that has been parked over Texas for much of the month of May will begin to flatten and break down over the next 48 hours as a trough of low pressure currently near the western coast of Mexico moves eastward and eventually across central Texas this weekend. Lowering mid level heights will finally weaken the strong capping inversion that has been in place over the region for weeks preventing much of any rainfall. At the surface a frontal boundary will move southward and then slow and eventually stall across SE TX late this weekend into much of next week. This combined of onshore flow of deep tropical moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico and a series of upper level disturbances moving across the region will produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms for several days.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches look likely with isolated amounts upwards of 5-6 inches possible. Heavy rainfall will be possible starting on Sunday over the region with the slow moving frontal boundary over the area and likely the development of slow moving or training storms. Grounds are very dry with much of the southern portions of the area in drought, but heavy rainfall potential in a short period of time and expected numerous rounds of storms over several days will eventually begin to saturate the soils. While flooding is not currently expected for the weekend, this is the type of weather pattern that needs to be watched closely.
Weak frontal boundary will waffle and linger over the region into the middle of next week along with a weakness in the ridge axis which will keep rain chances going. Again slow moving storms will be possible along with heavy rainfall. This period may begin to feature a higher flash flood threat as soils becoming increasingly saturated.
This weather pattern looks to bring significant drought and fire relief to much of the state.
Much needed weather pattern change will unfold over the southern plains this weekend into next week.
High pressure that has been parked over Texas for much of the month of May will begin to flatten and break down over the next 48 hours as a trough of low pressure currently near the western coast of Mexico moves eastward and eventually across central Texas this weekend. Lowering mid level heights will finally weaken the strong capping inversion that has been in place over the region for weeks preventing much of any rainfall. At the surface a frontal boundary will move southward and then slow and eventually stall across SE TX late this weekend into much of next week. This combined of onshore flow of deep tropical moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico and a series of upper level disturbances moving across the region will produce numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms for several days.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches look likely with isolated amounts upwards of 5-6 inches possible. Heavy rainfall will be possible starting on Sunday over the region with the slow moving frontal boundary over the area and likely the development of slow moving or training storms. Grounds are very dry with much of the southern portions of the area in drought, but heavy rainfall potential in a short period of time and expected numerous rounds of storms over several days will eventually begin to saturate the soils. While flooding is not currently expected for the weekend, this is the type of weather pattern that needs to be watched closely.
Weak frontal boundary will waffle and linger over the region into the middle of next week along with a weakness in the ridge axis which will keep rain chances going. Again slow moving storms will be possible along with heavy rainfall. This period may begin to feature a higher flash flood threat as soils becoming increasingly saturated.
This weather pattern looks to bring significant drought and fire relief to much of the state.
NWS has upped the local chance of rain from Sunday to Tuesday to 50-70%.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Some lingering MVFR ceilings north of IAH this morning, but should
lift and scatter out by 15-16Z this morning. Afterwards, VFR
conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening. Tonight, MVFR
ceilings will creep back in from the west and impact sites north
of IAH again. Winds should stay strong enough to keep fog away
during the overnight hours tonight.
Lenninger
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 504 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Today`s forecast Will be relatively similar to what we`ve seen over
the last several days, but don`t fret, change is on the way. Today`s
highs will reach the mid to upper 90s for inland areas, and upper
80s to low 90s near the coast. Overnight lows will only cool down
into the low to mid 70s for inland areas and mid to upper 70s near
the coast. As ridging overhead continues to weaken, the local
pressure gradient will increase today and therefore so will our
local winds. We can expect winds near 15 mph today with higher
gusts. Our southwestern counties could approach wind advisory
criteria for a few hours as well this afternoon with sustained winds
approaching the 25 mph threshold. Although a few passing mid level
shortwaves will be pushing through our area today, the stubborn
770mb cap will prevent any showers from forming.
During the day tomorrow, the forecast will once again be similar
with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s again for inland
areas and upper 80s to low 90s near the coast. However, a mid level
low currently centered over the Baja Peninsula will sweep through
Central Texas Friday night. Convection will initiate west of our CWA
on Friday and weaken as it approaches our area during the overnight
hours on Friday. Fortunately, hi-res models are not showing it
fizzling out before it reaches us and therefore, some isolated
showers are possible for our northernmost counties during the
overnight hours. Overnight lows will be noticeably warmer on Friday
night as increased cloud cover and onshore flow will only cool temps
down to the mid to upper 70s for most areas and near 80 along the
coast.
Lenninger
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
The frontal boundary to the northwest on Friday should eventually
push southward Saturday and with PW of 1.4-1.6" on moderate
southerly flow streaming northward across SETX should set the
stage for rainfall. As the frontal boundary sags down near our
northern areas from College Station to Crockett late afternoon or
more likely Saturday evening it should become active with slow
moving showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary continues
to sag southward overnight and probably stall somewhere between
the Highway 59 corridor and the coast. A noisy southwesterly flow
aloft should bring in a series of weak s/w to help further the
development of storms. The front may be hard to pick out Sunday
with the storms muddling the wind field over the area. Soundings
indicate a moist, weakly capped, low shear environment capable of
brief heavy downpours. The boundary waffles about near the coast
then should start to lift back north on Monday. The region should
get widespread rainfall out of this cold front-stalled stationary
front-warm front event Monday. Not expecting flooding just garden
variety storms with some heavy downpours if any clusters get more
organized. Monday afternoon much of the region should be back in
the warm sector as another and slightly stronger short wave
arrives late Monday afternoon and night. Tuesday through Thursday
should be a wet period with the front in close proximity or
sagging back down near the coast with a series of s/w passing
through. Will be keeping with the trend of chance to high end
chance POPs Tuesday-Thursday and temperatures closer to normal
with the abundant cloud cover.
45
.MARINE...
Winds over the western waters should be a little stronger today
and may get a creep up in seas as well. Will hoist an SCA for the
west and SCEC for the east. Strong rip currents should continue
through Friday night. Winds will be close to SCEC/SCA through
Saturday then with the front sagging southward winds relax a
little more but with a well developed fetch of swells arriving.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible as the front stalls
near the coast. The passage of s/w may cause some brief increases
in the east and southeasterly flow into early next week.
.CLIMATE...
All four of our primary climate sites either tied or broke the daily
high temperature record yesterday, May 18. Three of these records
were long stand records that were between 90 and over 100 years old.
Old Record (Year) New Record
City of College Station 96 (1925) 98
City of Houston 95 (1890) 95 (tied)
Houston-Hobby 93 (2003) 94
City of Galveston 89 (1929) 90
Galveston not only had a daily high max temperature, but also a
daily high min temperature of 81 degrees breaking the old record
of 80 set in 1995.
This has been one of the warmest Mays on record so far. Through
May 17, here are the average temperatures:
City of College Station: 81.6 - warmest on record, ahead of 2003 (75.9)
City of Houston: 81.0 - second warmest on record, behind 2003 (81.2)
Houston-Hobby: 81.4 - warmest on record, ahead of 2003 (81.1)
City of Galveston: 82.6 - warmest on record, ahead of 2009 (79.7)
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 73 97 76 96 / 0 0 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 93 75 93 78 93 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 88 81 87 / 0 0 0 0 20
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Some lingering MVFR ceilings north of IAH this morning, but should
lift and scatter out by 15-16Z this morning. Afterwards, VFR
conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening. Tonight, MVFR
ceilings will creep back in from the west and impact sites north
of IAH again. Winds should stay strong enough to keep fog away
during the overnight hours tonight.
Lenninger
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 504 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022/...
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Today`s forecast Will be relatively similar to what we`ve seen over
the last several days, but don`t fret, change is on the way. Today`s
highs will reach the mid to upper 90s for inland areas, and upper
80s to low 90s near the coast. Overnight lows will only cool down
into the low to mid 70s for inland areas and mid to upper 70s near
the coast. As ridging overhead continues to weaken, the local
pressure gradient will increase today and therefore so will our
local winds. We can expect winds near 15 mph today with higher
gusts. Our southwestern counties could approach wind advisory
criteria for a few hours as well this afternoon with sustained winds
approaching the 25 mph threshold. Although a few passing mid level
shortwaves will be pushing through our area today, the stubborn
770mb cap will prevent any showers from forming.
During the day tomorrow, the forecast will once again be similar
with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s again for inland
areas and upper 80s to low 90s near the coast. However, a mid level
low currently centered over the Baja Peninsula will sweep through
Central Texas Friday night. Convection will initiate west of our CWA
on Friday and weaken as it approaches our area during the overnight
hours on Friday. Fortunately, hi-res models are not showing it
fizzling out before it reaches us and therefore, some isolated
showers are possible for our northernmost counties during the
overnight hours. Overnight lows will be noticeably warmer on Friday
night as increased cloud cover and onshore flow will only cool temps
down to the mid to upper 70s for most areas and near 80 along the
coast.
Lenninger
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
The frontal boundary to the northwest on Friday should eventually
push southward Saturday and with PW of 1.4-1.6" on moderate
southerly flow streaming northward across SETX should set the
stage for rainfall. As the frontal boundary sags down near our
northern areas from College Station to Crockett late afternoon or
more likely Saturday evening it should become active with slow
moving showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary continues
to sag southward overnight and probably stall somewhere between
the Highway 59 corridor and the coast. A noisy southwesterly flow
aloft should bring in a series of weak s/w to help further the
development of storms. The front may be hard to pick out Sunday
with the storms muddling the wind field over the area. Soundings
indicate a moist, weakly capped, low shear environment capable of
brief heavy downpours. The boundary waffles about near the coast
then should start to lift back north on Monday. The region should
get widespread rainfall out of this cold front-stalled stationary
front-warm front event Monday. Not expecting flooding just garden
variety storms with some heavy downpours if any clusters get more
organized. Monday afternoon much of the region should be back in
the warm sector as another and slightly stronger short wave
arrives late Monday afternoon and night. Tuesday through Thursday
should be a wet period with the front in close proximity or
sagging back down near the coast with a series of s/w passing
through. Will be keeping with the trend of chance to high end
chance POPs Tuesday-Thursday and temperatures closer to normal
with the abundant cloud cover.
45
.MARINE...
Winds over the western waters should be a little stronger today
and may get a creep up in seas as well. Will hoist an SCA for the
west and SCEC for the east. Strong rip currents should continue
through Friday night. Winds will be close to SCEC/SCA through
Saturday then with the front sagging southward winds relax a
little more but with a well developed fetch of swells arriving.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible as the front stalls
near the coast. The passage of s/w may cause some brief increases
in the east and southeasterly flow into early next week.
.CLIMATE...
All four of our primary climate sites either tied or broke the daily
high temperature record yesterday, May 18. Three of these records
were long stand records that were between 90 and over 100 years old.
Old Record (Year) New Record
City of College Station 96 (1925) 98
City of Houston 95 (1890) 95 (tied)
Houston-Hobby 93 (2003) 94
City of Galveston 89 (1929) 90
Galveston not only had a daily high max temperature, but also a
daily high min temperature of 81 degrees breaking the old record
of 80 set in 1995.
This has been one of the warmest Mays on record so far. Through
May 17, here are the average temperatures:
City of College Station: 81.6 - warmest on record, ahead of 2003 (75.9)
City of Houston: 81.0 - second warmest on record, behind 2003 (81.2)
Houston-Hobby: 81.4 - warmest on record, ahead of 2003 (81.1)
City of Galveston: 82.6 - warmest on record, ahead of 2009 (79.7)
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 73 97 76 96 / 0 0 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 93 75 93 78 93 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 88 81 87 / 0 0 0 0 20
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captainbarbossa19
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It's hard to say past Sunday, but Sunday looks really good for rain chances. The line looks solid and moves through in the morning/early afternoon so we should see pretty heavy rainfall amounts. Moreover, both the Euro and GFS have most of the area receiving 2+ inches over the next 10 days and that is averaged. Anytime you see multiple chances of rain coming up, that is almost always a good sign for getting a good rain event.
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captainbarbossa19
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Just checked the latest Euro, and now it is showing 6+ inches over the next 10 days in our area! Wow!captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 2:24 pmIt's hard to say past Sunday, but Sunday looks really good for rain chances. The line looks solid and moves through in the morning/early afternoon so we should see pretty heavy rainfall amounts. Moreover, both the Euro and GFS have most of the area receiving 2+ inches over the next 10 days and that is averaged. Anytime you see multiple chances of rain coming up, that is almost always a good sign for getting a good rain event.
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Stratton20
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12z Euro puts a smile on my face! Widespread 3-5 inches across SE Texas with some isolated 8+ inch bullseyes , hope this verifies
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captainbarbossa19
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This setup is starting to really remind me of last May. Jack Brooks (SE Texas Regional) recorded about 1 inch April 2021 and it was very dry until about May 20th. May 2021 recorded almost 16 inches. This year, the airport recorded slightly less than one inch.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 2:32 pm 12z Euro puts a smile on my face! Widespread 3-5 inches across SE Texas with some isolated 8+ inch bullseyes , hope this verifies