June 2022

[djmike]

Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.

HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.

Can you post the HRRR for this afternoon/evening?

[Cpv17]

Rain chances down to 30% and not until late this afternoon. Based on the large plume of moisture digging southwest offshore, I'm betting we see nothing until Wednesday or Thursday.

HRRR has a nice scattering of showers south of 10 for later this afternoon.

Can you post the HRRR for this afternoon/evening?

[redneckweather]

So much for a wet week....isolated to scattered type showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Consider yourself lucky if you have one sit on top of you. At least the temps will be down a little.

[don]

So much for a wet week....isolated to scattered type showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Consider yourself lucky if you have one sit on top of you. At least the temps will be down a little.

It was always suppose to be scattered storms.If you want widespread rain you'll have to wait to see how the tropical feature evolves later this week...

[don]

12Z NAM with a Tropical Storm making landfall in Matagorda very similar to the 6Z EURO.Most of the mesoscale models I've seen so far this morning are coming in more aggressive with the storm.

[don]

The 12Z WRF models also came in more aggressive both show a moderate Tropical Storm now.

[DoctorMu]

So for days and days and days Monday (today) was supposed to be a big rain day. And now the latest forecast only has 30%??
That’s just not right. Lucy Lucy waves hello.

Total bust IMBY last night. The cells circumvented us.

[DoctorMu]

Most of the mesos have sparse rain over the next few days. This is about the most optimistic.

[don]

Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.

[Dls2010r]

I’m in Santa Fe. The cloud cover is amazing.

[mcheer23]

Not sure why chances are still at 10/20. I have them at 30/50 right now.

[Stratton20]

mcheer23 they are pretty conservative, i would be shocked if they dont up the development odds at the 2 pm outlook

[TexasBreeze]

Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.

Is that the area to watch? I noticed that a bit ago there

[don]

Makes since as the TC is absorbing all the moisture away.BTW there is a rapid increase in convection south of Louisiana this morning with a broad circulation forming.

Is that the area to watch? I noticed that a bit ago there

Yes that's the area that will slowly move west over the next couple of days.

[Stratton20]

It definitely appears a broad circulation is attempting to form like Don said, interesting days ahead

[captainbarbossa19]

Not sure why chances are still at 10/20. I have them at 30/50 right now.

They have the other wave east of 94L with identical chances over 5 days even though it has less model support. Real-time trends show increasing vorticity over the Gulf at 925 and 850mb. Imo, I agree the chances should be higher than 10/20 at this point.

[mcheer23]

New update...still 20 percent...

[Kingwood32]

New update...still 20 percent...

They must know something we don't lol...

[don]

12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.

[mcheer23]

12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.

Yup, nice rainfall totals though. Widespread 3-5 inches on the west side. Isolated 6+