June 2022

[don]

The EURO shows some nice rainfall totals from the system.

[Kingwood32]

So they r going with the euro on this and holding off on Development?

[captainbarbossa19]

12Z Euro went back to showing a Tropical Low or Depression.

Yup, nice rainfall totals though. Widespread 3-5 inches on the west side. Isolated 6+

I need those totals to shift east a little more. Maybe it can do that and keep everyone else in it too. 1-2 inches is not going to help much. I would like 3-5 so my pond can get back to more normal levels.

[Stormlover2020]

Models will get more support with him trying to develop now, close home brew system

[Stratton20]

NHC is being way too conservative, I personally think this should be around a 40% chance to develop

[captainbarbossa19]

NHC is being way too conservative, I personally think this should be around a 40% chance to develop

I think they may wait till tomorrow morning to raise chances at this rate. Most models start tightening the circulation then. I am noticing steady eastward shifts with the Euro. I think the center will most likely come on shore between Palacios and Galveston.

[djmike]

Well that qpf gives everyone but Beaumont a good chance of rain. Itll be my luck…

[Cromagnum]

Well that qpf gives everyone but Beaumont a good chance of rain. Itll be my luck…

At least your area benefited from some of the popup storms that blew through the border over the last week. Most of us haven't seen a drop in weeks.

Hopefully this system can halt the desert feedback loop and open the door for a more "normal" rainfall pattern.

[captainbarbossa19]

Well that qpf gives everyone but Beaumont a good chance of rain. Itll be my luck…

At least your area benefited from some of the popup storms that blew through the border over the last week. Most of us haven't seen a drop in weeks.

Hopefully this system can halt the desert feedback loop and open the door for a more "normal" rainfall pattern.

Yeah that's what I'm really hoping for too. I live a few miles west of djmike and I haven't had nearly as much rain either. It's been rather isolated amounts of heavy rain in the Triangle overall.

[Stratton20]

I got shafted by a storm up here last night, all thunder/lightning but no rain, what a troll haha, I hope this low comes in around matagorda bay

[Rip76]

Storms starting to pop around the area now.

[don]

Yep the scattered storms the HRRR was showing are now popping up

[Rip76]

It must be a miracle. I’m hearing Thunder, and my A/C shut off on its own.

[Cpv17]

I got shafted by a storm up here last night, all thunder/lightning but no rain, what a troll haha, I hope this low comes in around matagorda bay

I hope it comes in around Port O’Connor.

[Stratton20]

12z EPS guidance

[captainbarbossa19]

12z EPS guidance

Interesting, almost all the ensemble members start the turn well before it reaches the south Texas coast.

[Cromagnum]

Storms starting to pop around the area now.

Hope more pop east of there they are now. Could see the downpour from the house but missed west. So freaking lame.

[don]

18Z HRRR turns the system into a Tropical Storm.

[don]

Big shift west on the 18Z ICON.Now has a landfall of a weak tropical storm around Matagorda. Looks more in line with the other models now.

[DoctorMu]

I got shafted by a storm up here last night, all thunder/lightning but no rain, what a troll haha, I hope this low comes in around matagorda bay

I hope it comes in around Port O’Connor.

It's a 100°F in CLL (so much for the cool-off)...and cells continue to lurk and drift west, just south of os. Congrats to those getting rain! There's a significant easterly breeze. Unfortunately it's not a cooling breeze.