June 2022

[suprdav2]

Ch 13 running behind on their info. They are still saying 10-20% development, and their raincast only showing most of Harris county getting under 1/4" of rain through Saturday.

[Cromagnum]

Is this mess still expected to turn northward at some point?

[Kingwood32]

Is this mess still expected to turn northward at some point?

Yes

[Kingwood32]

Hmmmm

[davidiowx]

^ This is probably why many of the local mets aren't going crazy with rain chances and etc.

[Cpv17]

Usually the TVCN is the model to go by.

[don]

Hmmmm

Its important to keep in mind we are looking at a lopsided system.As most of the heavy convection will be north and east of the center. You can see that in the models qpf maps and WPC map also.Models show the western half of the storm mostly dry. You don't want to see the center track directly over you as you may end up dry slotted in this setup.Notice the WPC map has barely any rain in South Texas.

[Cpv17]

^ This is probably why many of the local mets aren't going crazy with rain chances and etc.

Channel 13 had pretty high rain chances Thursday and Friday. Not sure about any others.

[don]

12Z HRRR with a Depression or weak Tropical Storm into Matagorda.

[Cromagnum]

The two modeled paths on the right (blue and green) have a lot of time over hot water.

[don]

Looks like a LLC is trying to form on 95L.

[djmike]

Have a gut feeling 95L might surprise us. Nothing strong but will be a minimal TS upon landfall wherever that may be. Still hoping for a tad shift east on rainfall coverage to cash in on the beneficial rain along with Houston. We shall see…

[mcheer23]

WRF has a Tropical Storm making landfall in Brazoria County...impressive rainfall totals...
ICON however, is not impressive.

[don]

Yeah the WRF looks great.

[mcheer23]

Yeah the WRF looks great.

WRF rainfall totals. Inland counties would likely finish up with 4-7 inches of rain 8+ isolated if the run went past 48 hours.

[Cpv17]

Yeah the WRF looks great.

WRF rainfall totals. Inland counties would likely finish up with 4-7 inches of rain 8+ isolated if the run went past 48 hours.

Yeah that would be a no bueno for me lol

[Stratton20]

Hoping this comes in a little further west , i would be on the North-North eastern side, wouldnt get much of anything

[Cpv17]

Hoping this comes in a little further west , i would be on the North-North eastern side, wouldnt get much of anything

Like I said, we need it to come in more towards Port O’Connor instead of Sargent or Freeport. Even the Seadrift area would be a good landfall for southeast TX.

[davidiowx]

Looks like it is really trying to get its act together on satellite. Will be an interesting afternoon and evening if this continues.

[Rip76]

Looks like it is really trying to get its act together on satellite. Will be an interesting afternoon and evening if this continues.

Agreed