🥵🥵July 2022
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4348
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Man wish that cell was over me, 103 here, brutal
🥵🥵
🥵🥵What app do you use? I use the weatherbug one. It never showed red on that one so I really don’t know how reliable it is.don wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:27 pmNo it was red, I was checking the radar also lol.rainfall rates were at least 2 inches an hour. The cell has died down though.
I usually use the COD website to acess the level 2 NWS radar. It's raining again yay! Lol I took a screenshot showing the red cell when it was over my neighborhood theres heavy ponding everywhere.
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 406
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Check out RadarScope. You can access different radar tilts and products. It also offers live lightning data.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:30 pmWhat app do you use? I use the weatherbug one. It never showed red on that one so I really don’t know how reliable it is.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4348
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
18z GFS backs way off on its crazy rain fall totals, still something to watch as its not uncommon for models to flip flop on a potential heavy rain event when we are 7/8 days out from the time frame the model was showing, heres to hoping we all get some beneficial rains next week!
Edit: GFS still has some 4-8+ inches near the coast next week
Edit: GFS still has some 4-8+ inches near the coast next week
Last edited by Stratton20 on Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 406
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
I think that based on current trends, July is going to end up being much wetter than June for most of the region. This would also fit with past records of one or the other month being wet.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:48 pm 18z GFS backs way off on its crazy rain fall totals, still something to watch as its not uncommon for models to flip flop on a potential heavy rain event when we are 7/8 days out from the time frame the model was showing, heres to hoping we all get some beneficial rains next week!
Ive used MY RADAR App for years. Its awesome and very accurate and shows whatever you want. Flashes whwre lightning is an also sends a notification if rain is about to pour at your location. Highly recommended. Just IMO.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
What I meant more also, but didn't articulate clearly, is that I believe the ridge to purely just be a downstream wave propagation effect — either Rossby or Kelvin interaction, combo of both, depending on whether midlatitudes or the ITCZ tropics play more a role in forcing it.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:14 pmExactly and ridges may sit in one area, but they usually are there for only 2-3 weeks at a time. The problem for us has been that when the ridge moves, it has not been getting far enough away. However, all it takes is for one storm to move towards us when the ridge is not overhead, and we will have big problems. The ridge will likely start to shift around more once we get into August and September. Ridging in September is not as strong normally too.
Yes, into August thru September, the ridge tends to elongate/stay in a position such as to allow better chances for easterly rains. I notice that the very dry Brownsville/RGV actually has a rainy peak in September.
I use My Radar and Radar Scope. Both are great. I use My Radar more when looking at just radar, lighting, etc. it’s very accurate. Radar Scope I use when looking at severe storms, rotation, etc.
I was at the Astros game and as we were leaving it was coming down! Had to have got an inch or so of rain over there. Roads were flooding (well I’d said major ponding is more accurate) over near Warehouse Live when I was driving through.
ETA- nothing at my house still.. it’s all around but just can’t make it here
I was at the Astros game and as we were leaving it was coming down! Had to have got an inch or so of rain over there. Roads were flooding (well I’d said major ponding is more accurate) over near Warehouse Live when I was driving through.
ETA- nothing at my house still.. it’s all around but just can’t make it here
Big time Lucy today!! Dark clouds over me for the longest time.
FWIW I use GRlevel2 Analyst on my iMac (with Parallels) and RadarScope on my other devices with an Allisonhouse data subscription. Seems to be reliable.
FWIW I use GRlevel2 Analyst on my iMac (with Parallels) and RadarScope on my other devices with an Allisonhouse data subscription. Seems to be reliable.
Wow MyRadar from the posts above looks good.
For desktop, I think Windy is nice as well.
For desktop, I think Windy is nice as well.
Picked up 1.20" today some areas near downtown got close to 3 inches in the popcorn storm this afternoon.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4348
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Latest 06z runs not looking too enthused about rain fall next week, typical
I didn't see this tweet yesterday, but there was some street flooding in downtown also.
https://twitter.com/PastorJaimeG/status ... 4556634113
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4618
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 081113
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Spotty MVFR CIGS may develop early this morning, though any CIGS
that do develop should scatter out by mid-morning. Light SW winds
this morning will become SE at roughly 10kts in the afternoon. Light
SW winds will develop overnight and persist into Saturday
morning.
03
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 347 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022/...
.DISCUSSION...
After advertising for some time an increase in heat to
potentially dangerous levels beyond even our typical summer
furnace, the hottest anticipated period is upon us. The hottest
area today looks to be mainly north and northwest of the Houston
metro where a heat advisory is in place, but also creeping into
the more rural areas west of Houston as well. For now...the bulk
of the metro should hold in the 104-107 level for heat index, but
it is a real close call today.
That likely changes for this weekend, as hotter conditions look to
spread across the entirety of the inland forecast area, and
perhaps the coast as well. The hottest locations (again likely to
be northwest of the Houston metro, closer to B/CS) may even flirt
with the threshold for an excessive heat warning. Heat is not a
very visibly dramatic threat like other weather hazards are, but
that insidiousness arguably is part of what makes it so deadly.
The most important thing in preventing heat illness is being
prepared and having a plan going in. If you`re consciously
building the heat into your plans for today and the weekend, that
will be critical in preventing a ruined, or even tragic, event.
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
A mid level high over the Four Corners region will strengthen
during the day, allowing for hot weather to continue across the
region. 500mb heights over SE Texas will rise to 595-596 dam with
850mb temperatures increasing to around 21-24C. This will bring
mostly clear skies with highs ranging from the mid 90s to lower
100s across the region. A heat advisory will be in effect for most
areas along and north of the US-59/I-69 corridor (excluding the
Houston Metro Area & Harris County) from 10 AM today until 10 PM
tonight. Since the last forecast cycle, this heat advisory has
been expanded to include inland Jackson, Wharton and Fort Bend
counties. These areas should see highs threatening to breaking
triple digits in the afternoon with heat indicies sitting around
106-109. If you plan to spend the day outdoor, be conscious of
these hot temperatures and remember to practice heat safety
wherever you are.
On Saturday, the aforementioned mid level high will strengthen to
600 dam, with 850mb temperatures rising to around 22-25C. Surface
temperatures will continue to creep up, bringing more widespread
triple digit highs across SE Texas along with heat indicies in the
107-112 range. With these hot conditions set to continue,
additional heat advisories will likely be needed this weekend. At
the very least, a weak surface boundary will enter the Brazos
Valley Saturday afternoon, potentially bringing a few showers and
thunderstorms to areas north of the I-10 corridor. These showers
could provide some relief from the heat as they taper off into the
evening, though it won`t be very substantial. With these hot
conditions expected to continue through the weekend, maintaining
good heat safety habits should be a priority.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Sunday looks to be very much like Saturday. Indeed, for the
coastward half of the forecast area, mixing may not be quite as
effective on Sunday as on Saturday, and slightly higher dewpoints
would also nudge peak heat index values slightly higher as well.
I`m not sure whether this is an actual expectation or an artifact
of the how the guidance available to us handles the boundary
layer...but considering Sunday at least pretty much a rerun of
Saturday seems reasonable. Expect high temps at or over 100 for
most all inland areas, with the coast hanging back in the 90s.
Heat index looks to peak in the 108-111 range inland, and 105-110
at the coast.
Will anyone get any rain on Sunday? Maybe near the seabreeze? I do
have some slight chances there. Precipitable water does still
look to be in the 1.75 to 2 inch range, and the hot temps will
surely give rising parcels a heckuva head start. But low levels
look hot all around, and we do have a pretty solid cap. Like the
past couple days, don`t be surprised if we squeeze a storm or two
out in the afternoon, but most should stay dry. It really will be
like getting a lottery ticket.
As the week carries on, we should see a (very slow and) gradual
drift back towards more seasonable temperatures while the western
US ridge begins to weaken a little. These all look to be very
modest changes, so heat advisories may be needed into Monday or
even Tuesday. As the upper ridge weakens, that should open us up a
bit more to afternoon shower and storm development later in the
week, so as I trend temperatures down slowly, I do also trend PoPs
up a little bit for the back half of the week as well. There isn`t
a real strong confidence in any specific focus from, say, an
inverted trough working along the underside of the ridge, so there
probably isn`t one day to focus on any more than the other.
Instead, I mostly broadbrush slight chance and chances of storms
each day from Tuesday on. That`s not to say it can`t happen - just
that there isn`t any signal that any particular day right now. The
idea for now is that the environment will just gradually become
more seasonable with each passing day.
.MARINE...
Strong high pressure overhead will dominate through at least the
weekend. This will keep rain chances on the waters to functionally
nil. Expect the winds to maintain a summertime pattern -
persistent onshore winds with diurnal variations from the
seabreeze circulation. Wind speeds will likely approach Caution
thresholds during the evening and overnight hours on the Gulf.
Wind speeds should then back down modestly during the day and
afternoon. Rain chances slowly return next week as the strong high
pressure weakens slightly.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 80 106 81 104 / 0 0 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 99 79 102 80 102 / 0 0 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 85 95 85 95 / 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland
Jackson...Madison...Montgomery...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Brokamp
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 081113
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Spotty MVFR CIGS may develop early this morning, though any CIGS
that do develop should scatter out by mid-morning. Light SW winds
this morning will become SE at roughly 10kts in the afternoon. Light
SW winds will develop overnight and persist into Saturday
morning.
03
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 347 AM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022/...
.DISCUSSION...
After advertising for some time an increase in heat to
potentially dangerous levels beyond even our typical summer
furnace, the hottest anticipated period is upon us. The hottest
area today looks to be mainly north and northwest of the Houston
metro where a heat advisory is in place, but also creeping into
the more rural areas west of Houston as well. For now...the bulk
of the metro should hold in the 104-107 level for heat index, but
it is a real close call today.
That likely changes for this weekend, as hotter conditions look to
spread across the entirety of the inland forecast area, and
perhaps the coast as well. The hottest locations (again likely to
be northwest of the Houston metro, closer to B/CS) may even flirt
with the threshold for an excessive heat warning. Heat is not a
very visibly dramatic threat like other weather hazards are, but
that insidiousness arguably is part of what makes it so deadly.
The most important thing in preventing heat illness is being
prepared and having a plan going in. If you`re consciously
building the heat into your plans for today and the weekend, that
will be critical in preventing a ruined, or even tragic, event.
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
A mid level high over the Four Corners region will strengthen
during the day, allowing for hot weather to continue across the
region. 500mb heights over SE Texas will rise to 595-596 dam with
850mb temperatures increasing to around 21-24C. This will bring
mostly clear skies with highs ranging from the mid 90s to lower
100s across the region. A heat advisory will be in effect for most
areas along and north of the US-59/I-69 corridor (excluding the
Houston Metro Area & Harris County) from 10 AM today until 10 PM
tonight. Since the last forecast cycle, this heat advisory has
been expanded to include inland Jackson, Wharton and Fort Bend
counties. These areas should see highs threatening to breaking
triple digits in the afternoon with heat indicies sitting around
106-109. If you plan to spend the day outdoor, be conscious of
these hot temperatures and remember to practice heat safety
wherever you are.
On Saturday, the aforementioned mid level high will strengthen to
600 dam, with 850mb temperatures rising to around 22-25C. Surface
temperatures will continue to creep up, bringing more widespread
triple digit highs across SE Texas along with heat indicies in the
107-112 range. With these hot conditions set to continue,
additional heat advisories will likely be needed this weekend. At
the very least, a weak surface boundary will enter the Brazos
Valley Saturday afternoon, potentially bringing a few showers and
thunderstorms to areas north of the I-10 corridor. These showers
could provide some relief from the heat as they taper off into the
evening, though it won`t be very substantial. With these hot
conditions expected to continue through the weekend, maintaining
good heat safety habits should be a priority.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Sunday looks to be very much like Saturday. Indeed, for the
coastward half of the forecast area, mixing may not be quite as
effective on Sunday as on Saturday, and slightly higher dewpoints
would also nudge peak heat index values slightly higher as well.
I`m not sure whether this is an actual expectation or an artifact
of the how the guidance available to us handles the boundary
layer...but considering Sunday at least pretty much a rerun of
Saturday seems reasonable. Expect high temps at or over 100 for
most all inland areas, with the coast hanging back in the 90s.
Heat index looks to peak in the 108-111 range inland, and 105-110
at the coast.
Will anyone get any rain on Sunday? Maybe near the seabreeze? I do
have some slight chances there. Precipitable water does still
look to be in the 1.75 to 2 inch range, and the hot temps will
surely give rising parcels a heckuva head start. But low levels
look hot all around, and we do have a pretty solid cap. Like the
past couple days, don`t be surprised if we squeeze a storm or two
out in the afternoon, but most should stay dry. It really will be
like getting a lottery ticket.
As the week carries on, we should see a (very slow and) gradual
drift back towards more seasonable temperatures while the western
US ridge begins to weaken a little. These all look to be very
modest changes, so heat advisories may be needed into Monday or
even Tuesday. As the upper ridge weakens, that should open us up a
bit more to afternoon shower and storm development later in the
week, so as I trend temperatures down slowly, I do also trend PoPs
up a little bit for the back half of the week as well. There isn`t
a real strong confidence in any specific focus from, say, an
inverted trough working along the underside of the ridge, so there
probably isn`t one day to focus on any more than the other.
Instead, I mostly broadbrush slight chance and chances of storms
each day from Tuesday on. That`s not to say it can`t happen - just
that there isn`t any signal that any particular day right now. The
idea for now is that the environment will just gradually become
more seasonable with each passing day.
.MARINE...
Strong high pressure overhead will dominate through at least the
weekend. This will keep rain chances on the waters to functionally
nil. Expect the winds to maintain a summertime pattern -
persistent onshore winds with diurnal variations from the
seabreeze circulation. Wind speeds will likely approach Caution
thresholds during the evening and overnight hours on the Gulf.
Wind speeds should then back down modestly during the day and
afternoon. Rain chances slowly return next week as the strong high
pressure weakens slightly.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 104 80 106 81 104 / 0 0 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 99 79 102 80 102 / 0 0 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 85 95 85 95 / 10 0 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland
Jackson...Madison...Montgomery...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Brokamp
MARINE...Luchs
I also use RadarScope and find it to be quite accurate. Here's a screenshot I still had from weeks ago.
Edit: Click on the image. It's not blurry.
Edit: Click on the image. It's not blurry.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4618
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 081722
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
.AVIATION [82Z TAF Issuance]...
Brief spotty MVFR CIGS this morning have mixed out we`re now seeing
SCT/FEW cu across the region. A few showers have tried to move into
the southeastern portions of the CWA this morning will little to no
success thus far. So, it does look like the ridging and the cap are
winning out. Light SW winds expected through the rest of the after-
noon...very light SE/variable this evening and overnight. Otherwise
no issues and VFR. 41
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 081722
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 8 2022
.AVIATION [82Z TAF Issuance]...
Brief spotty MVFR CIGS this morning have mixed out we`re now seeing
SCT/FEW cu across the region. A few showers have tried to move into
the southeastern portions of the CWA this morning will little to no
success thus far. So, it does look like the ridging and the cap are
winning out. Light SW winds expected through the rest of the after-
noon...very light SE/variable this evening and overnight. Otherwise
no issues and VFR. 41
&&
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4348
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Not looking great for widespread rain next week, models are backing off , most of the action stays in lousiana-florida
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 406
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
I wouldn't say they are backing off so much. QPF totals are rather consistent between the Euro and GFS each run. They are just showing more rain to the east. Sometimes July does not turn wetter for us until the second-half.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 2:26 pm Not looking great for widespread rain next week, models are backing off , most of the action stays in lousiana-florida