July 2022

[Kingwood32]

I'll say this..if this record breaking summer leads us to a real winter this year...then I'll gladly take it and suffer through it

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS is showing a strong Bermuda ridge developing towards days 7-10. Definitely a more alarming pattern heading towards peak season.

[TexasBreeze]

Yeah 2011 had a very noticeable infared satellite view of that incredible high pressure. It showed a literal donut of nothingness right over Texas with a circle of clouds around the perimeter. Never moved for the longest time. Someone here had that image as their avatar, but can't remember who.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201704
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1204 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

South-southwesterly winds will gradually become southerly by the
afternoon hours with moderate sustained winds around 10-15 knots
and gusts around 20-25 knots with higher gusts for the coastal
sites (GLS and LBX). Winds become lighter overnight and become
south-southwesterly again around 5 knots. MVFR ceilings are
expected again across the northern sites (CXO and northward)
between 10Z-15Z. VFR conditions return for all sites by the mid
morning hours on Thursday as south-southwesterly winds pick up
again around 8-10 knots. Sea breeze in the afternoon will
transition the wind direction over to southerly. Wind speeds will
be a bit less for Thursday when compared to today.

Batiste

[don]

This is definitely NOT 2011...You can see the significant difference in the 2011 vs 2022 drought monitor. Maybe some hope for us locally of a pattern change.We'll see..

[captainbarbossa19]

This is definitely NOT 2011...You can see the significant difference in the 2011 vs 2022 drought monitor. Maybe some hope for us locally of a pattern change.We'll see..

I said this earlier, but this year is much closer to 2008. Check it out:

[jasons2k]

I’ll take “drought removal likely” for $500 Alex…

[jasons2k]

This is definitely NOT 2011...You can see the significant difference in the 2011 vs 2022 drought monitor. Maybe some hope for us locally of a pattern change.We'll see..

Thank you for posting that. There really is no debate on the severity of the drought. It’s not even close.

Those maps bring back a lot of memories. I remember the DFW area getting some relief when we still didn’t get a drop - I remember that like yesterday.

[Stratton20]

captainbarbossa19 a stronger bermuda ridge would tend to steer systems more towards the GOM right?

[DoctorMu]

Right. In 2011, much of SE Texas was in exceptional drought by April. Currently 21.32% of the state is in exceptional drought. On July 12, 2011, over 70% of the state was in exceptional drought. Definitely nowhere close to the intensity of 2011. Personally, I do believe August is going to feature some rain, but it may come at a price unfortunately from the tropics. I say a price because it may not just be a rain event.

TBF, it's worse in College Station this year vs. 2011 so far, but not most everywhere else in Texas.

Maybe things will flip in August for us...usually not but we'll see...

It’s much more isolated though and if you compared rainfall amounts going back into 2021 (remember the 2011 drought started in 2010) you would still find late 2010-2011 was worse up in B/CS too.

In summer of 2011, even the cedar trees were all brown amidst a massive die-off all over the hill country. The cedar!

Last weekend, Austin was green. Even the grass. The oak trees looked great. Nothing at all like 2011.

That is the point. Our drought is isolated in College Station, but we've had well below normal rainfall since Sept 1, 2021, although Fall 2010 was drier. Temperature have been well above average, except Feb 2022. Our June and July 2022 are hotter and drier (no rainfall) that 2011. Possibly hottest ever recorded. We had 2.7 in of rain in June 2011. Nada this year.

So my premise stands about CLL's summer of 2022 being hotter and drier than 2011.

Austin has had significant rain this year. Bastrop and their lost piney woods is probably not going to be ablaze like 2011 soon.

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS is showing a strong Bermuda ridge developing towards days 7-10. Definitely a more alarming pattern heading towards peak season.

Drought to Flood.

Welcome to Texas.

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS is showing a strong Bermuda ridge developing towards days 7-10. Definitely a more alarming pattern heading towards peak season.

Then ridging moves back over Texas.

But the Euro and Ensembles are leaning towards maintaining a Bermuda high up through a 500 mb anomaly into August.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu if that ensembles are right, what would that kind of setup with the Bermuda high mean for us?

[captainbarbossa19]

captainbarbossa19 a stronger bermuda ridge would tend to steer systems more towards the GOM right?

It depends more on where the storm is located. Let's just say a storm to its south will not be turning north, so it would likely head towards the GOM.

Edit: If it's too far south though, it could crash into CA.

[jasons2k]

DoctorMu if that ensembles are right, what would that kind of setup with the Bermuda high mean for us?

It exposes the NW/NC gulf to tropical systems. The tropical systems will find the weakness in the ridge or gap between the two ridges and gain latitude.

[jasons2k]

Thunderstorms popping-up NW of Denton.

[Stratton20]

And this is why I love being in this weather community on here, also learning new things! Cant believe Ive been on here for nearly 2 years now! I know i can be a bit dramatic sometimes but im glad to be apart of a fantastic weather community! All that aside, im encouraged by the noaa 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks, they slowly are trending towards above normal precip for texas

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 211146
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Generally VFR conditions are expected today. However, areas of
low clouds and even some patchy fog are occurring from the Brazos
Valley to areas just west and south of Houston. Generally MVFR
conditions are being observed in these areas. However, isolated
IFR conditions are being reported as well. Any low ceilings will
rise as the morning progresses. Any fog will be short-lived. Light
S to SSW winds this morning should increase and become S to SSE
this afternoon.

Self


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Mid/upper level ridging will dominate the weather once again for
your Thursday. The ridge is expected to nudge a little westward
today. In addition, there will be a better chance of a few more
clouds. Scattered high level clouds are already pushing into the
northern CWA as I write this discussion. There is even a remote
possibility of a diurnal/seabreeze induced shower or thunderstorm.
All of these evolutions in the atmosphere would suggest higher PoPs
and lower temps. But I wouldn`t count on today being that much
different than yesterday. Any developing shower or storm would have
to overcome a wealth of dry air along with continued subsidence
thanks to that pesky ridge that won`t go away. Therefore, PoPs
remain quite low (~10%). Now let`s talk about the heat.

There was initial optimism that we would not need to issue a heat
advisory for today. However, there has been a slight increase in the
expected dew points today. HI values in our grids are very close to
advisory criteria in the Houston metro and in our coastal counties.
In addition, ambient temps in the Brazos Valley and in our northern
counties are likely to be very near heat advisory criteria.
Therefore, we have opted to issue a heat advisory once again for the
entire CWA.

A slight decrease in mid/upper level geopotential heights is
expected on Friday. The lowered heights coupled with a weak inverted
trough pushing westward through the Gulf has resulted in continued
low PoPs for Friday. There is a better chance of diurnal / seabreeze
showers and tstorms on Friday than there is today. However, the
overall expected atmospheric profile will continue to support
predominately hot and dry conditions. Perhaps we will keep
temperatures in the 95-100 range as opposed to widespread 100+
readings. HI values are expected to remain below advisory criteria.
But the heat will still be bad enough to warrant heat safety
precautions.

Remember, water is your friend! Drink plenty of it! Doing outdoor
activities / work? Take breaks in the shade or inside
in the AC. Always LOOK before you LOCK! Don`t forget to keep your
pets safe from the heat. If the ground is too hot for the palm of
your hand, then it`s too hot for the paws. Self


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Hot & mostly dry conditions will prevail thru the period. Strong
western ridging will gradually flatten and expand/move eastward
across the Southern Plains this weekend and toward the southeast
states mid to late week. Isolated shra/tstms can`t totally be ruled
out across southern parts of the CWA complements of the seabreeze
and/or any disturbances tracking westward under the ridge. However,
am not quite as optimistic as I was this time yesterday as guidance
seems not only slower with the eastward progression of the center
of the ridge, but also its relative strength remaining intact
across the northern Gulf Coast and southeast TX even when it does
so. Looks like subsidence/capping will remain pretty tough to
overcome the further inland one goes. 47


.MARINE...
Typical summertime marine pattern should persist. Might need some
intermittent SCEC`s at night offshore with the nocturnal wind
speed increase. Otherwise, onshore flow 10-15kt and 2-4ft seas
look to be about the norm. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 102 79 102 78 102 / 0 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 101 79 99 78 98 / 10 10 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 95 84 93 84 93 / 10 10 20 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Austin...Bolivar
Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Houston...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...None.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

From Larry Cosgrove on his FB page...

Canada and the equatorial Pacific Ocean hold the key to the evolution of August weather.
As of now, the shortwaves in the polar jet stream are probably at their farthest north location, between the Arctic Circle and the Canadian border. All of the recent numerical model and ensemble runs show a gradual loss in latitude, to the point where the disturbances in the westerlies pass along an arc from British Columbia into Quebec. What evolves from this transition is a cool Canada vs. hot U.S. pattern that I suspect will hold through the first two or three weeks of August.
The "mega ridge" that I have been talking about since late June will remain in place. When a Sonoran heat ridge complex links with others further to the east (Bermudan, Azores, Saharan, and Persian; know your synoptic climatology!), you will see widespread hot and mostly dry weather. The exception will be when the Canadian disturbances drop far enough south to spark intense thunderstorms in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and (sometimes) the Northeast. But residents of the northern third of the Interstate 95 corridor will tend to have more hot than cool days in this set-up, as the surface cold fronts may get hung up in the Appalachian Mountains from West Virginia into New England.
In this configuration, the best potential for hurricanes is below Central America and Mexico. The Atlantic Basin remains quiet for the foreseeable future, due to constant injection of hot, dry, dusty cTw values from the Sahara Desert. There is a concern that one of the impulses ejecting out of the moisture axis in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could a) get close enough to the Mexican shoreline to create flooding problems or b) might interact with the monsoonal fetch to bring serious rainfall to the American Southwest.
While we may be seeing different trends in the final third of August, for now, the lower 48 states are stuck with the "same old, same old". That is, lots of heat and lack of rainfall. You hearing me, Dallas Texas?

[Stratton20]

The Latest GFS is trending wetter over the next 10-12 days, models are in agreement that the high will break up next week, leasing to daily rain chances, id say about 30-40% right now