October 2022

[Cpv17]

Latest CPC forecast is screaming -PNA.

[brazoriatx]

Plz tell me that's good for cold weather..

[Stratton20]

nope, for us we need the PNA to be neutral to get cold air down here, that CPC 6-10 and 8-14 outlook makes me want to vomit

[Cpv17]

nope, for us we need the PNA to be neutral to get cold air down here, that CPC 6-10 and 8-14 outlook makes me want to vomit

Rain chances look somewhat decent though.

[brazoriatx]

We didn't have a winter basically at all last year..hopefully it won't be a repeat this year

[Stratton20]

La Nina winters are full of surprises and 2021 was no exception when it came to that winter storm in January and in February, even last year it got cold at times with that Ice Storm last february , we will have times where it gets down right cold this winter, heck Im gonna go all out and say Texas sees at least 2-3 winter storm threats this winter! Just a wacky prediction though haha

[DoctorMu]

We didn't have a winter basically at all last year..hopefully it won't be a repeat this year

Up in NW quadrant we had a colder than normal February. The Fall was too warm, like the upcoming Wx after this brief cool down.

Enjoy it while it lasts through Wednesday!

[Stratton20]

Wish we could get a repeat of back in 2017 in december when we had that “ surprise” significant snow event, that would be amazing

[srainhoutx]

We didn't have a winter basically at all last year..hopefully it won't be a repeat this year

Up in NW quadrant we had a colder than normal February. The Fall was too warm, like the upcoming Wx after this brief cool down.

Enjoy it while it lasts through Wednesday!

We are expecting lows in the low 20’s the next few mornings. Gusty NW winds are stripping the trees of their leaves. May see some snow flurries overnight above 4500 ft.

[DoctorMu]

We didn't have a winter basically at all last year..hopefully it won't be a repeat this year

Up in NW quadrant we had a colder than normal February. The Fall was too warm, like the upcoming Wx after this brief cool down.

Enjoy it while it lasts through Wednesday!

We are expecting lows in the low 20’s the next few mornings. Gusty NW winds are stripping the trees of their leaves. May see some snow flurries overnight above 4500 ft.

Very, very jelly. Especially when it is 88°F again in SETX this weekend!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu well after what went through during the summer in CS, 88 doesnt sound so bad to me

[Stratton20]

The warm up this week will be short lived, models are beginning to come into an agreement on another front arriving around the 25th

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 181738
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1238 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022

Skies continue to clear out while cold, dry air is filtering in
behind the front. By sunrise, most temperatures will be hovering in
the low 50s south of Conroe, while areas to the north will dip into
the mid to upper 40s. Despite mostly sunny skies, daytime highs will
struggle to reach 70 today. However, winds today will still be N-NNE
around 10-15mph with gusts near 20mph. This combined with RH values
ranging from 15-25% means we have an elevated fire risk for today.
Although it doesn`t quite meet red flag warning criteria, there
still remains favorable conditions for fire starts and fire spread.
Therefore, extra precautions should be taken to prevent the spread
of fire such as avoiding all fire-related activities, not parking on
dry grass, obeying local burn bans, checking the chains on your
vehicle, etc.

Clear skies tonight combined with light wind will enhance
radiational cooling and temperatures will dip into the lowest values
we have seen so far this Autumn. South of Conroe, temps will dip
down into the low to mid 40s while areas north of Conroe could reach
the upper 30s. Our northernmost counties could even dip into the mid
30s and flirt near freezing at 34 degF. Frost is possible for these
northern counties, but we have held off on any freeze
watches/warnings since these cold spots will be isolated.

Wednesday will be fairly similar to today, but N-NNE winds won`t be
as gusty and our western counties will be a few degrees warmer while
overnight lows will a few degrees warmer as well.

Walts

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022

Expecting to enjoy our brief foray into more autumnal conditions?
Well, however you feel about it, its going to be short-lived. Look
for winds to become southwesterly on Thursday, complete with some
modest moisture advection, and at least some modest warm
advection. Given that setup and full sun during the day, and
the digits in our afternoon highs from Wednesday will come very
close to pulling a Willy Wonka - "Strike that, reverse it" - as we
go from highs in the upper 60s to highs in the lower 80s.

Because southwesterly flow isn`t going to have a real strong
onshore component, dewpoints may be a bit slow to rise, and so
Thursday night still looks fairly chilly, though still noticeably
warmer than the previous nights. Gone will be any potential of
lows below 40 degrees north of Houston, as the large majority of
the area will be up into the 50s.

The warming trend continues through the weekend, particularly in
the overnight hours as a more directly onshore flow of southerly
to south-southwesterly sets up with low level high pressure
becoming ascendant over the Southeast US. Meanwhile, the trough
pushing our most recent front through will have also moved off to
the east, with a brief stretch of shortwave ridging setting up.
Don`t get too attached, though, because it looks like a shortwave
trough will be dropping off the Rockies as early as Saturday, and
a more significant northern stream upper low following behind it
in the Pacific Northwest.

Not really anticipating a whole lot out of that shortwave trough,
other than to iron out the leading ridge some. So as we transition
from the weekend into early next week, I`d expect continued
temperature ranges of mornings in the 60s to lower 70s at the
coast increasing to the middle to upper 80s in the afternoon.

More substantial change can be expected more towards the middle
of next week as the beefier upper trough makes its way across the
western mountains and supports the development of a surface low
and an attendant cold front dropping down into Texas. How
significant a change? Well...that all depends on which
deterministic model you like most, I suppose. This looks like a
heckuva setup, with a deep upper low in the northern stream,
and depending on how the phasing works out, some boosts from a
southern stream shortwave and/or the remnants of a tropical
cyclone from the Eastern Pacific! Everything lines up one way, and
we`re looking at a pretty strong cold front driving through with
strong convection along the front. If the ingredients miss each
other in the timing...maybe the front doesn`t even reach our area.
Fortunately, this is largely beyond the scope of this particular
forecast, but it will be an important and challenging question in
the days to come.

Luchs

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. N winds at 08-15
KTS with gusts up to 25 KTS through this evening, decreasing to
3-8 KTS tonight.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2022

Gusty post-frontal winds continue tonight, and a small craft
advisory remains in effect for all waters. We`ve been seeing and
will continue to see northeasterly winds of around 15 to 25 knots
with occasional gusts to gale force through this morning. Though
winds and seas may diminish slightly, advisory-level conditions
are anticipated through the day today and into tonight as we only
gradually come down from the highest winds and seas. We can expect
winds and seas to further diminish Wednesday as surface high
pressure moves into the area. With the high passing eastward
through the region, expect southwesterly winds to begin later
this week, with more fully onshore flow anticipated by the
weekend. Caution flags may be back in the picture deeper into the
weekend as the next front approaches the region.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 40 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 43 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 54 67 58 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

The warm up this week will be short lived, models are beginning to come into an agreement on another front arriving around the 25th

The another warm-up in the 80s. My power bill needs a break.

Like today! DP of 23°F. Brilliant sunshine. 66°F

Our First Chamber of Commerce Day since April.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu couldnt agree me, it feels absolutely amazing outside, too bad its a short tease haha

[DoctorMu]

90°F Sunday with a low of 69°F progged. eeeeeccchhhh.

Next Monday and Tuesday is the next FROPA arrival. Not as strong, but possibly longer lasting with highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s.

[Cpv17]

90°F Sunday with a low of 69°F progged. eeeeeccchhhh.

Next Monday and Tuesday is the next FROPA arrival. Not as strong, but possibly longer lasting with highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s.

Ehhh, for me personally, that’s not that bad. To each their own lol. To me the perfect weather is lows in the 50’s and 60’s and highs in the 70’s or 80’s.

[Cpv17]

Looks like the WPC and the CPC are onboard for next weeks rain event and the SPC is hinting at a severe weather risk as well.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 looks like that tropical disturbance off the mexican coast will have its moisture pulled into texas,

[DoctorMu]

90°F Sunday with a low of 69°F progged. eeeeeccchhhh.

Next Monday and Tuesday is the next FROPA arrival. Not as strong, but possibly longer lasting with highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s.

Ehhh, for me personally, that’s not that bad. To each their own lol. To me the perfect weather is lows in the 50’s and 60’s and highs in the 70’s or 80’s.

Perfect weather is when the dang A/C doesn't turn on!