Yeah.. but what is the temp as it blows through? It’s down to 58 here all of a sudden. That wind has a bite to it too!
Eta: rain picking up now. .10”.. probably get a 1/4” to possibly 1/2” if I’m lucky. I’ll take it!
Yeah.. but what is the temp as it blows through? It’s down to 58 here all of a sudden. That wind has a bite to it too!
A strong storm system will bring the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather to SE TX Friday.
Parameters appear to be coming together for a highly active Thursday night-Friday evening as the next storm system currently entering the NW US moves into the southern plains late this week. Area will be within the post frontal air mass today with cool and dry conditions in place, but surface high pressure will begin to move eastward tonight and this will allow winds to turn onshore on Thursday. Quick moisture return is expected on Thursday as a coastal trough develops along the lower TX coast and helps to quickly bring Gulf moisture northward over the mid and upper TX coast. Clouds will increase from south to north during the day, and lift will likely begin to develop a few showers and even a couple of thunderstorms by Thursday evening as the moisture profile increases.
Friday:
Strong storm system over the SW US Thursday night will slow and eject into TX Friday morning. Strong jet stream aloft coupled with large scale upper level divergence and a decent low level jet with tropical moisture transport all point to an active weather day. Moisture profiles by Friday morning are nearing the 95 percentile for this time of year with PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches over the area. Incoming large scale lift will overspread the area by Friday morning and expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop. Shear, instability, and moisture look favorable for some of the storms to become severe with all severe modes being possible.
Position of the upper level storm system on Friday over NW TX taking on an increasingly negative tilt supports training of SW to NE moving showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches appear likely with this system with isolated higher amounts. Given the high levels of moisture that will be in place on Friday, hourly rainfall rates of 1.5-2.5 inches will be possible. Grounds are very dry over the region, so rainfall is much needed with ongoing drought conditions, however street flooding will be possible where hourly rates exceed local capacity.
Weekend:
Upper level system slow over east TX, but much of the area should be on the western side of the upper low on Saturday allowing a cool and drier air mass to slide in from the NW. Wrap around clouds and even show light showers could impact areas north of I-10 on Saturday with temperatures in the 60’s and NW winds of 10-20mph. Clearing skies Saturday night into Sunday with lows in the 40’s and highs Sunday in the low 70’s.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1