December 2022

[txsnowmaker]

Channel 13 forecast has no 30’s in the forecast the next 10 days and has highs in the mid 50’s to low 60’s lol

They ALWAYS do this..they gotta be cautious at first

If that’s the worst case scenario I’d gladly take it after this misery!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We go through this every year. Local stations won’t change forecasts to the anomalous outcomes until a couple days out.

They will stick to climo

[Cpv17]

Channel 13 forecast has no 30’s in the forecast the next 10 days and has highs in the mid 50’s to low 60’s lol

They ALWAYS do this..they gotta be cautious at first

Yep. I’m just being impatient lol I’ve already told friends and my family about the potential because you won’t hear it from them for probably a few more days at least.

[txsnowmaker]

How reliable is the GEFS 7 days out? Shows snow depth in Houston from next Sunday through next Wednesday.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... 118&fh=168

[brazoriatx]

How reliable is the GEFS 7 days out? Shows snow depth in Houston from next Sunday through next Wednesday.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... 118&fh=168

Wouldn't trust it this far out

[Cpv17]

How reliable is the GEFS 7 days out? Shows snow depth in Houston from next Sunday through next Wednesday.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... 118&fh=168

Since it’s an ensemble mean and not the operational it has some merit to it. I wouldn’t completely discount it. Ensembles are the way to go once you get past 4-5 days.

[DoctorMu]

70's close to 80 for Christmas?

He’s trolling the board full on right now. I’m getting a laugh out of it because almost no one took the bait. One did.

The first few years I joined S2K, he really had me heated! Now I’m just like okay, whatever lol

57 is a Cajun? That explains a lot.

[DoctorMu]

I’m going to be taking some ITM BOIL options with a 12/16 expiration first thing tomorrow morning. I expect to make a quick buck on these.

Yeah, a good time to buy any NG futures.

[Cpv17]

The subtropical jet looks to be active over us with cold air locked in. This is what Don and Stratton were alluding to earlier:

[MontgomeryCoWx]

He’s trolling the board full on right now. I’m getting a laugh out of it because almost no one took the bait. One did.

The first few years I joined S2K, he really had me heated! Now I’m just like okay, whatever lol

57 is a Cajun? That explains a lot.

Yes, he’s originally from Lafayette.

[DoctorMu]

The just Updated Day 11+ Super Ensembles
and Analogs have many memories of cold and some that brought wintry mischief across Texas and beyond.

Alaska and Greenland block.

[DoctorMu]

I remember 3-4 days before the Feb 2021 outbreak, the Euro said it was going to be 50s and sunny, and the GFS foretold the epic winter storm. Is this setup the same, or are the parameters for this outbreak more certain to happen?

CMC had it nailed.

[DoctorMu]

I remember 3-4 days before the Feb 2021 outbreak, the Euro said it was going to be 50s and sunny, and the GFS foretold the epic winter storm. Is this setup the same, or are the parameters for this outbreak more certain to happen?

Looks like a more certain thing this time because there’s consensus among all the models that something is brewing but we just don’t know the severity of it yet. Might not be as bad as Feb 21 or it might be. Could even be like Dec 83 or 89. Don’t really know yet.

I'd suspect icy.

[txsnowmaker]

A replay of this sure would be fun. It was more of a snow event than ice as I recall.

Check out the 16:40 mark for Ch. 2’s Doug Johnson talking about -20 wind chill at Hobby!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3zHls2HP17o

[DoctorMu]

The first few years I joined S2K, he really had me heated! Now I’m just like okay, whatever lol

57 is a Cajun? That explains a lot.

Yes, he’s originally from Lafayette.

Just send him some Budweiser and etouffée - Budweiser uses rice in the brew for pale ale color. Coon asses are addicted to it. I used to live in Baton Rouge many years ago. They all cray-zee.

Sounds like 57's largely clowning around right now.

[DoctorMu]

A replay of this sure would be fun. It was more of a snow event than ice as I recall.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3zHls2HP17o

Haha The big hair era in America. Many would take 1989 or my avatar. Except I'd have to drive 50-60 miles to find the snow for a Christmas Even 2004 analog - the 2004 storm hopped over CLL from the Hill Country to the coast. 4-6 inches of snow that piled up in Galveston to Victoria and south.

[txsnowmaker]

A replay of this sure would be fun. It was more of a snow event than ice as I recall.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3zHls2HP17o

Haha The big hair era in America. Many would take 1989 or my avatar. Except I'd have to drive 50-60 miles to find the snow for a Christmas Even 2004 analog - the 2004 storm hopped over CLL from the Hill Country to the coast. 4-6 inches of snow that piled up in Galveston to Victoria and south.

Yes just goes to show how rare it is for everything to line up for snow around here.

[DoctorMu]

A replay of this sure would be fun. It was more of a snow event than ice as I recall.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3zHls2HP17o

Haha The big hair era in America. Many would take 1989 or my avatar. Except I'd have to drive 50-60 miles to find the snow for a Christmas Even 2004 analog - the 2004 storm hopped over CLL from the Hill Country to the coast. 4-6 inches of snow that piled up in Galveston to Victoria and south.

Yes just goes to show how rare it is for everything to line up for snow around here.

The December 8, 2017 snow event (4-5 inches in CLL) also produced snow in central Mexico!

[bdog38]

Something Brewing..........


Skidog51

[869MB]

I know all of the attention will be on the possibility of cold weather and frozen precipitation over the next few weeks over the state. But I just wanted to point out how we've had some close calls with severe weather/tornado potential here in SE Texas over the past several weeks. Tuesday appears yet another close call for the area, but it appears the forcing will be too far away from the region for this potential to manifest into reality. After Tuesday, all attention turns towards winter weather possibilities. However, at some point in late Winter or early Spring, depending on the overall weather pattern, we may have to revisit the possibility of severe weather in our region again. The below HRRR sounding is a good example of just how close we were to a more significant severe weather episode across the area.