December 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Climate Prediction Center Outlooks suggests cold air is coming for much of the United States.
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DoctorMu
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This just in: 57 still on the fence. ;)
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:06 pm This just in: 57 still on the fence. ;)
I highly doubt anyone is surprised by this
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I respect his criteria. He wants to see how cold it is in Canada before he jumps on
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Ptarmigan
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:10 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:04 pm I think next week we should have a somewhat better idea on the forecasts.
Agreed, I’ve told our O&G customers to wait until Wednesday.

So many trying to deploy fleets around the New Year.
I would start looking at the forecast as early as this Friday.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Ptarmigan wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:43 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:10 pm
Ptarmigan wrote: Thu Dec 08, 2022 10:04 pm I think next week we should have a somewhat better idea on the forecasts.
Agreed, I’ve told our O&G customers to wait until Wednesday.

So many trying to deploy fleets around the New Year.
I would start looking at the forecast as early as this Friday.
I was talking this Wednesday since we will start seeing the Arctic Air spill into NW Canada
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Channel 11 mentioned the artic air mass for Christmas week.
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That’s good to see the local stations starting to talk about it.
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tireman4
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:17 pm I respect his criteria. He wants to see how cold it is in Canada before he jumps on
I get it too. I am not on the fence, but I want to see more begore I go onboard.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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tireman4 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:33 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:17 pm I respect his criteria. He wants to see how cold it is in Canada before he jumps on
I get it too. I am not on the fence, but I want to see more begore I go onboard.
I’m on board with us being at least 15 below normal, and I’m getting damn close to being on board for 25 plus. Waiting for Wednesday to hit.
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Some Parts of Russia hit -82 below zero with wind chill near 107 below zero( posted by POW Ponder), and that kind of air ( though modifiying somewhat) will be crossing into canada and eventually the US late next week🥶🥶🥶 but that is beyond incredible
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:48 pm Some Parts of Russia hit -82 below zero with wind chill near 107 below zero( posted by POW Ponder), and that kind of air ( though modifiying somewhat) will be crossing into canada and eventually the US late next week🥶🥶🥶 but that is beyond incredible
If that is really true we could be in for a doozy.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:03 pm That’s good to see the local stations starting to talk about it.
They have to be relatively confident. I thought they'd wait until close to the weekend.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:48 pm Some Parts of Russia hit -82 below zero with wind chill near 107 below zero( posted by POW Ponder), and that kind of air ( though modifiying somewhat) will be crossing into canada and eventually the US late next week🥶🥶🥶 but that is beyond incredible
I was making this argument via a bit of Physics and analogs on our A&M discussion board.

If we truly see -60s and -70s in NW Canada with even a 1050 plus High trotting down the Rockies, and snowpack in the plains, I have a hard time seeing us getting north of 20F for a few days in this pattern.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:41 pm
tireman4 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:33 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 6:17 pm I respect his criteria. He wants to see how cold it is in Canada before he jumps on
I get it too. I am not on the fence, but I want to see more begore I go onboard.
I’m on board with us being at least 15 below normal, and I’m getting damn close to being on board for 25 plus. Waiting for Wednesday to hit.
I'm pretty confident in 20°F+ below normal. In a few days foot+ deep snow is going to be piled up down to the KS - OK border, and that storm is going to pull down frigid air on top of the snow pack, before the next blow...and then the next.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:03 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:48 pm Some Parts of Russia hit -82 below zero with wind chill near 107 below zero( posted by POW Ponder), and that kind of air ( though modifiying somewhat) will be crossing into canada and eventually the US late next week🥶🥶🥶 but that is beyond incredible
I was making this argument via a bit of Physics and analogs on our A&M discussion board.

If we truly see -60s and -70s in NW Canada with even a 1050 plus High trotting down the Rockies, and snowpack in the plains, I have a hard time seeing us getting north of 20F for a few days in this pattern.
I see -52°C real time = -62°F and it's the nearing noon in parts of Siberia. Damn cold however you slice it.
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:11 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 9:03 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:48 pm Some Parts of Russia hit -82 below zero with wind chill near 107 below zero( posted by POW Ponder), and that kind of air ( though modifiying somewhat) will be crossing into canada and eventually the US late next week🥶🥶🥶 but that is beyond incredible
I was making this argument via a bit of Physics and analogs on our A&M discussion board.

If we truly see -60s and -70s in NW Canada with even a 1050 plus High trotting down the Rockies, and snowpack in the plains, I have a hard time seeing us getting north of 20F for a few days in this pattern.
I see -52°C real time = -62°F and it's the nearing noon in parts of Siberia. Damn cold however you slice it.
Eric Berger of Space City Weather is mentioning this possible arctic blast and he displayed a 12Z GFS run of the high around 20 degrees and 1 1/2 inch of snow. He also mentioned it was 99.9 % unlikely but what these models are spitting out and now the pro met at least mentioning this cold blast raises an eyebrow.
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:01 pm Storms in West Texas have exploded:

https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1602503986099400704
This ULL is fierce
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tireman4
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Worst case scenario, Wxman 57 says, his private jet and pilot are ready for a trip to Sydney. Lol I am with you on your numbers.
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