December 2022

[DoctorMu]

So this is going east of us now?

That's an Ensemble which parks the arctic high in CO - I was referring to the discrete model runs, particularly the GFS.

[Cpv17]

The EPS gives us a dry cold at the moment. The OP Euro gives us crazy cold with a shot of wintry weather. Not what you want to see but plenty of time to change.

[DoctorMu]

That Euro setup is something else - an 85°F gradient across the state. -40°F real temp in the Colorado

[Cpv17]

18z GFS has a 1073 MB high in SW Montana. Unreal.

The record is 1064 MB in the lower 48 in 1983.

[Stratton20]

Yep very cold run, though still dry, will be interesting to see what the ensembles show

[Cpv17]

Yep very cold run, though still dry, will be interesting to see what the ensembles show

As long as the cold stays in place for a few days maybe we can get a coastal low or something coming out of Mexico.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS is significantly colder wow

[Cpv17]

18z GFS is significantly colder wow

I mean 1073 MB high in SW Montana? You freaking kidding me. Look at how progressive it is with the storm tracks/troughs though. It’s completely ignoring the fact that there’s a -NAO. You can toss this garbage for precip but it seems to have a decent handle on the temps.

[Cpv17]

The GFS is so east coast biased due to how overly progressive it is. It’s had this problem for as long as I can remember. Don’t even worry about what it’s showing in regards to precip past 3 days.

[redneckweather]

Bitter cold and dry...hard pass.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yeah, its not handling precip well. It's also probably 10-15 degrees too warm with a high that large.

With that said, SETX gets very cold.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Bitter cold and dry...hard pass.

I don't understand that. I'll take it over this soup crap we are in now.

[Cpv17]

Yeah the GFS is having a better handle on the temps up north but not so much down here. It’s definitely too warm. Thought it would do better with the temps for us this time but nope.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yeah the GFS is having a better handle on the temps up north but not so much down here. It’s definitely too warm. Thought it would do better with the temps for us this time but nope.

Y’all really need to not swing with every model run until we get into hi-res.

Yeah, this far out, you’re going to get some wonky stuff in the models

[DoctorMu]

Bitter cold and dry...hard pass.

Active SJT, so count me skeptical...especially given this as a long event.

The front is moving through CLL. Adios 70s hopefully until March and 70°F dewpoint until May. We'll see.

[Cpv17]

Crappy runs this afternoon. Definitely pulling for the 12z Euro operational but it’s on its own. Hopefully this is just a case of the models being too progressive. We need a deeper trough and some energy coming out of the SW/Baja.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Crappy runs this afternoon. Definitely pulling for the 12z Euro operational but it’s on its own. Hopefully this is just a case of the models being too progressive. We need a deeper trough and some energy coming out of the SW/Baja.

Don’t care about precip right now. Focus on the cold, which we have.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Double post

[brazoriatx]

It's in the time frame of when they usually loose it or go off the wall..give it time..no need to freak out yet lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It's in the time frame of when they usually loose it or go off the wall..give it time..no need to freak out yet lol

It hasn’t lost anything. Well I guess if you put stock in precip maps over 5 days, it waffles back and forth.

I