January 2023

[Stratton20]

12z GFS is very cold….

[Cpv17]

12z GFS is very cold….

The density of the cold air should be able to overcome the SE ridge.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 GFS pretty much goes ka poof with the SE ridge, also has a major winter storm in our area

[brazoriatx]

Cpv17 GFS pretty much goes ka poof with the SE ridge, also has a major winter storm in our area

Next run it will be gone lol lala land

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 GFS pretty much goes ka poof with the SE ridge, also has a major winter storm in our area

Next run it will be gone lol lala land

That’s very well possible but the CFS has been hinting at this pretty strongly now for the past couple weeks about the cold and wintry wx chances towards late January/early February. Also, it’s pretty unanimous across all major models now that Artic air will be building in our source region of Canada over the next few days.

[Katdaddy]

.49” so far today with a 2 day total of .75”

[TexasBreeze]

It has always really been targeted for late Jan early Feb for the return to the freezer and it seems to still be on track for that. The system midweek is to be watched for storms and rainfall since today's system looks just a bit showery and no big deal.

[Stratton20]

That 12z GFS has some February 2021 vibes too it, very interesting week ahead, incredible run

[sambucol]

That 12z GFS has some February 2021 vibes too it, very interesting week ahead, incredible run

Like how?

[Stratton20]

sambucol i dont want to get folks excited because it could change, but its similar because it has back to back systems (winter storms) and we stay below freezing for multiple days , normally i would discount a run like this, but considering the CPC has already begun to buy in, definitely should be watched closely

[Cpv17]

sambucol i dont want to get folks excited because it could change, but its similar because it has back to back systems (winter storms) and we stay below freezing for multiple days , normally i would discount a run like this, but considering the CPC has already begun to buy in, definitely should be watched closely

Yeah, plus Cosgrove and POW Ponder have been hinting at this here and there as well. -EPO is key to big cold down here. It helps setup C-PF.

[sambucol]

Thanks, Cpv. Is this run bringing it down all the way to the upper Texas coastline?

[brazoriatx]

I'm sure it will be one of those..well we got the cold but whatever trough or low doesn't look like it will dig or eject or something lol. It's soooo damn hard to get everything to mix at the right time here.

[Stratton20]

brazoriatx remember though at this range, dont focus on the precip part yet, what matters is the penetration of the arcric air reaching our doorstep in about 8-9 days~ or so, ensembles are colder as well, the pieces of the puzzle are beginning to come together

[Cpv17]

Thanks, Cpv. Is this run bringing it down all the way to the upper Texas coastline?

The 12z GFS had snow and ice accumulations all the way down to deep south Texas.

[Cpv17]

brazoriatx remember though at this range, dont focus on the precip part yet, what matters is the penetration of the arcric air reaching our doorstep in about 8-9 days~ or so, ensembles are colder as well, the pieces of the puzzle are beginning to come together

Yep, bingo!

[sambucol]

Thanks, Cpv. Is this run bringing it down all the way to the upper Texas coastline?

The 12z GFS had snow and ice accumulations all the way down to deep south Texas.

Sounds like the entire state of Texas is under ice and or snow with this run. That would certainly affect the power grid.

[snowman65]

I wont start paying attention to it until Mattress Mack places his bet on it!!

[jasons2k]

Empire Live Oak?

Yes, sorry - that’s what I meant. It was a long week! They do great - I have one that’s going nuts.

Just an observation. Rain chances for Friday had been advertised as low - in fact weather app still had 0% for yesterday when I woke up. App and NWS had been showing 80% for today (Saturday) all week.

Result: I got 0.14” yesterday, most in the late morning-early afternoon. The weather app would suddenly show 100% in the next hour, but only 50% for the day. Made no sense. Anyway, a nice unexpected shower yesterday.

And FF to today, waiting for the supposed ‘big event’ and so far, nothing. A little mist - that’s all. Bust so far.

[jasons2k]

From the NWS AFD. A little comic relief, especially “read a movie” part hehe:

“Grab some soup or cocoa - grab a book, read a movie, binge that show you`ve been meaning to, or pull those old records off the shelf - today is the day for it.”