Holy ****
June 2023
Can we lock in the 6z GFS please?
Also, I got .60” last night!
Also, I got .60” last night!
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4547
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 221144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Though no excessive heat warnings are in effect today, an area-
wide heat advisory is in place through at least tomorrow. This
means that while the heat is not expected to reach quite as high
a level as in past days, it is still plenty hot enough to be a
danger to folks who do not take precautions against heat illness.
Please continue to take proactive steps to mitigate the heat to
wrap up the week, and especially into the weekend and next week as
extreme heat looks to return.
With the slight dip in the strength of the heat dome in place over
the region, we also open ourselves up to the potential for showers
and thunderstorms. The strongest thunderstorms will have plenty of
fuel to become strong to severe, with damaging straight-line winds
the primary threat. Though a secondary threat, hail is another
potential hazard with any storms as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
With tonight`s convection having dissipated, fairly large T/Td
spreads remain in the latest observations along with mostly clear
skies. Conditions should be mostly prohibitive to the development of
widespread fog this evening, though a few instances of localized
patchy fog cannot be ruled out before sunrise in typically prone
locations.
Heading into today, the recent westward shift of the prevailing
midlevel ridge dominating the synoptic pattern will provide yet
another day of thunderstorm chances to SE TX as a series of
embedded shortwaves continue to push through the area. The
forecast is complicated somewhat by the presence of a weak, near-
stationary boundary extending roughly northwestward from Galveston
Bay. HiRes models indicate the potential for convective
development throughout the afternoon today as this boundary slowly
lifts northward, and as a result have included roughly 30-40% PoP
values throughout the afternoon and early evening. Additional
thunderstorm chances arrive tonight as another midlevel shortwave
pushes southeastward around the ridge axis, resulting in the
potential for the approach of another MCS during the overnight
hours. While this potential line of storms may bring another round
of gusty winds (though likely not as intense as last night`s), it
may struggle to survive all the way to the coast given slightly
more limited SB instability in place along with fairly robust
capping aloft. Nonetheless, this will be another feature to watch
closely as we approach this evening.
A slight eastward shift in the prevailing ridge axis on Friday and
subsequent 500mb height rises will stifle precipitation chances as
the parade of approaching shortwaves concurrently shifts out of the
region. Nonetheless, a few showers/storms from Thursday`s activity
may linger into the morning hours.
Temperatures today, influenced by slightly lower 500mb heights/850mb
temperatures as well as the potential for more expansive cloud
cover, should diminish somewhat to the mid/upper 90s for locations
west of I-45 and the lower/mid 90s for locations to the east where
precipitation chances are higher. Values will increase somewhat on
Friday given the aforementioned shift of the 500mb ridge. With max
heat index values approaching 110 in many locations, a Heat Advisory
will remain in effect through at least Friday night. Look for
overnight lows to generally remain in the upper 70s/near 80.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Return of the ridge (once again)
Return of the ridge (pump up the temps)
Return of the ridge (heat will flow)
You know it will be back (here it goes)
That paraphrase of some sweet, sweet 90`s R&B could probably serve
as the whole long term discussion, but we will get into it a
little more. Although if you prefer some slightly older hip hop,
you really could argue to not call this ridge a comeback, it`s
been here. Preferred music genre aside, the takeaway message here
is pretty obvious - the excessive heat that`s been with us for
days, and is only backing off the slightest bit in the short term,
will be making its way back into place this weekend and deep into
next week.
Saturday looks to be the "coolest" of the days in the long term
period, in that it is more of the transition day, with widespread
highs in the upper 90s and isolated to scattered hot spots
reaching 100. More widespread highs around or just over 100 emerge
Sunday, and stick with us into at least the mid-week. My forecast
conservatively allows for afternoon mixing of lower dewpoints that
are more typical for what we see here, and even then continued
heat advisories are a slam dunk, and we may need to bring back
excessive heat warnings. The key problem here is that of late, we
have not been mixing out as successfully, and so these forecast
heat index values around and exceeding 110 degrees may be slightly
on the low side!
If you`ve been reading along the past few days, you are probably
very sick of me talking about ensemble 850 mb temps, but I got
some bad news: I`m gonna do it again tonight. NAEFS and EPS both
continue to run with mean 850 mb temps that begin this period in
90th to 99th+ percentile, and climb back to a range from 99th+
percentile to maxing out their climo by Sunday evening and staying
there deep into next week. If the means are up here, it really
speaks to the high confidence in the continuation of this heat.
Looking at the surface, albeit a little less reliable than the 850
level, support for this scenario only builds. The Extreme Forecast
Index for max temps on Saturday are already seeing the return of
values exceeding 0.5, indicating potential for extreme temps and
we start seeing values exceeding 0.7 and even 0.8 in spots early
next week, bolstering the confidence in the forecast.
Now despite all this talk, I`m still mostly running with the
deterministic NBM numbers for temperatures. Outside of some known
land-sea interface issues that I attempt to correct for, the
numbers coming out of the scheme appear pretty reasonable. I did
glance at the median and 75th percentile of the distribution just
to see what they`d give me. The median numbers were pretty
similar to the deterministic set, and if anything a bit cooler.
The 75th percentile came out unreasonably hot to me. The highs it
showed pushing and even exceeding 105 probably requires too much
dry air than we`re likely to see. Along with that, the shift of
tails in the EFI plots were not a real prominent feature, and our
multi-model ensemble cluster analysis tool doesn`t really show
much signal for a deviation from the mean. Without much
justification to budge from what the NBM gives me, I chose to
stick with the coastal fixes and otherwise let it ride.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Lingering clouds this morning are minimal compared to last night,
with VFR conditions currently prevailing throughout. This should
remain the case throughout the course of the day as light S/SE
winds develop by late morning. Some uncertainty remains regarding
the extent to which thunderstorms will again develop this
afternoon, but current model guidance points to the formation of
scattered storms between approximately 20-00Z and have included
VCTS wording to account for this. Furthermore, storm development
to our NW will need to be closely watched as the potential remains
for any development to push into SE TX as we saw yesterday. MVFR
cigs look to return overnight tomorrow night and some patchy fog
cannot fully be ruled out.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Gusty, erratic winds are occurring over the coastal waters in the
pre-dawn hours in the wake of thunderstorms overnight. These winds
will gradually diminish around dawn, and return to being
generally southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots accompanied by seas of
2 to 4 feet. These conditions are expected through the weekend,
and will likely continue into next week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast
through tonight before coming to an end around mid-day Friday.
Fair weather prevails by Friday night, and will reign into the new
week.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
In addition to Tropical Storm Bret approaching the Lesser
Antilles, the National Hurricane Center has also begun advisories
on Tropical Depression Four, located near 10N/40W, far to the east
of Bret. Neither storm currently poses any concern for Southeast
Texas. For more details on these storms, see the latest forecast
information from NHC.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms moved through the area
earlier, and ensured that no record high minimum temperatures
would be set yesterday after multiple days of new records on that
front. However, before the storms arrived, both Houston climate
sites were able to tie their record highs for June 21. The City of
Houston officially hit 100, matching a record seen several times,
but most recently in 1998. Down at Hobby, the high of 99 also tied
its daily record, also last seen in 1998.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 77 97 78 / 20 30 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 79 96 80 / 40 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 83 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 221144
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Though no excessive heat warnings are in effect today, an area-
wide heat advisory is in place through at least tomorrow. This
means that while the heat is not expected to reach quite as high
a level as in past days, it is still plenty hot enough to be a
danger to folks who do not take precautions against heat illness.
Please continue to take proactive steps to mitigate the heat to
wrap up the week, and especially into the weekend and next week as
extreme heat looks to return.
With the slight dip in the strength of the heat dome in place over
the region, we also open ourselves up to the potential for showers
and thunderstorms. The strongest thunderstorms will have plenty of
fuel to become strong to severe, with damaging straight-line winds
the primary threat. Though a secondary threat, hail is another
potential hazard with any storms as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
With tonight`s convection having dissipated, fairly large T/Td
spreads remain in the latest observations along with mostly clear
skies. Conditions should be mostly prohibitive to the development of
widespread fog this evening, though a few instances of localized
patchy fog cannot be ruled out before sunrise in typically prone
locations.
Heading into today, the recent westward shift of the prevailing
midlevel ridge dominating the synoptic pattern will provide yet
another day of thunderstorm chances to SE TX as a series of
embedded shortwaves continue to push through the area. The
forecast is complicated somewhat by the presence of a weak, near-
stationary boundary extending roughly northwestward from Galveston
Bay. HiRes models indicate the potential for convective
development throughout the afternoon today as this boundary slowly
lifts northward, and as a result have included roughly 30-40% PoP
values throughout the afternoon and early evening. Additional
thunderstorm chances arrive tonight as another midlevel shortwave
pushes southeastward around the ridge axis, resulting in the
potential for the approach of another MCS during the overnight
hours. While this potential line of storms may bring another round
of gusty winds (though likely not as intense as last night`s), it
may struggle to survive all the way to the coast given slightly
more limited SB instability in place along with fairly robust
capping aloft. Nonetheless, this will be another feature to watch
closely as we approach this evening.
A slight eastward shift in the prevailing ridge axis on Friday and
subsequent 500mb height rises will stifle precipitation chances as
the parade of approaching shortwaves concurrently shifts out of the
region. Nonetheless, a few showers/storms from Thursday`s activity
may linger into the morning hours.
Temperatures today, influenced by slightly lower 500mb heights/850mb
temperatures as well as the potential for more expansive cloud
cover, should diminish somewhat to the mid/upper 90s for locations
west of I-45 and the lower/mid 90s for locations to the east where
precipitation chances are higher. Values will increase somewhat on
Friday given the aforementioned shift of the 500mb ridge. With max
heat index values approaching 110 in many locations, a Heat Advisory
will remain in effect through at least Friday night. Look for
overnight lows to generally remain in the upper 70s/near 80.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Return of the ridge (once again)
Return of the ridge (pump up the temps)
Return of the ridge (heat will flow)
You know it will be back (here it goes)
That paraphrase of some sweet, sweet 90`s R&B could probably serve
as the whole long term discussion, but we will get into it a
little more. Although if you prefer some slightly older hip hop,
you really could argue to not call this ridge a comeback, it`s
been here. Preferred music genre aside, the takeaway message here
is pretty obvious - the excessive heat that`s been with us for
days, and is only backing off the slightest bit in the short term,
will be making its way back into place this weekend and deep into
next week.
Saturday looks to be the "coolest" of the days in the long term
period, in that it is more of the transition day, with widespread
highs in the upper 90s and isolated to scattered hot spots
reaching 100. More widespread highs around or just over 100 emerge
Sunday, and stick with us into at least the mid-week. My forecast
conservatively allows for afternoon mixing of lower dewpoints that
are more typical for what we see here, and even then continued
heat advisories are a slam dunk, and we may need to bring back
excessive heat warnings. The key problem here is that of late, we
have not been mixing out as successfully, and so these forecast
heat index values around and exceeding 110 degrees may be slightly
on the low side!
If you`ve been reading along the past few days, you are probably
very sick of me talking about ensemble 850 mb temps, but I got
some bad news: I`m gonna do it again tonight. NAEFS and EPS both
continue to run with mean 850 mb temps that begin this period in
90th to 99th+ percentile, and climb back to a range from 99th+
percentile to maxing out their climo by Sunday evening and staying
there deep into next week. If the means are up here, it really
speaks to the high confidence in the continuation of this heat.
Looking at the surface, albeit a little less reliable than the 850
level, support for this scenario only builds. The Extreme Forecast
Index for max temps on Saturday are already seeing the return of
values exceeding 0.5, indicating potential for extreme temps and
we start seeing values exceeding 0.7 and even 0.8 in spots early
next week, bolstering the confidence in the forecast.
Now despite all this talk, I`m still mostly running with the
deterministic NBM numbers for temperatures. Outside of some known
land-sea interface issues that I attempt to correct for, the
numbers coming out of the scheme appear pretty reasonable. I did
glance at the median and 75th percentile of the distribution just
to see what they`d give me. The median numbers were pretty
similar to the deterministic set, and if anything a bit cooler.
The 75th percentile came out unreasonably hot to me. The highs it
showed pushing and even exceeding 105 probably requires too much
dry air than we`re likely to see. Along with that, the shift of
tails in the EFI plots were not a real prominent feature, and our
multi-model ensemble cluster analysis tool doesn`t really show
much signal for a deviation from the mean. Without much
justification to budge from what the NBM gives me, I chose to
stick with the coastal fixes and otherwise let it ride.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Lingering clouds this morning are minimal compared to last night,
with VFR conditions currently prevailing throughout. This should
remain the case throughout the course of the day as light S/SE
winds develop by late morning. Some uncertainty remains regarding
the extent to which thunderstorms will again develop this
afternoon, but current model guidance points to the formation of
scattered storms between approximately 20-00Z and have included
VCTS wording to account for this. Furthermore, storm development
to our NW will need to be closely watched as the potential remains
for any development to push into SE TX as we saw yesterday. MVFR
cigs look to return overnight tomorrow night and some patchy fog
cannot fully be ruled out.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
Gusty, erratic winds are occurring over the coastal waters in the
pre-dawn hours in the wake of thunderstorms overnight. These winds
will gradually diminish around dawn, and return to being
generally southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots accompanied by seas of
2 to 4 feet. These conditions are expected through the weekend,
and will likely continue into next week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast
through tonight before coming to an end around mid-day Friday.
Fair weather prevails by Friday night, and will reign into the new
week.
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
In addition to Tropical Storm Bret approaching the Lesser
Antilles, the National Hurricane Center has also begun advisories
on Tropical Depression Four, located near 10N/40W, far to the east
of Bret. Neither storm currently poses any concern for Southeast
Texas. For more details on these storms, see the latest forecast
information from NHC.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms moved through the area
earlier, and ensured that no record high minimum temperatures
would be set yesterday after multiple days of new records on that
front. However, before the storms arrived, both Houston climate
sites were able to tie their record highs for June 21. The City of
Houston officially hit 100, matching a record seen several times,
but most recently in 1998. Down at Hobby, the high of 99 also tied
its daily record, also last seen in 1998.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 77 97 78 / 20 30 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 79 96 80 / 40 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 83 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Luchs
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2357
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Team #NeverSummer
Still no power. It’s crazy. Finally found breakfast after the 4th stop.
Meager, but not zero, 30% chance of thunderstorms today. We'll see if the atmosphere can rejuice.
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2357
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2357
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Our neighborhood is Magnolia is a mess. Ugh
Team #NeverSummer
After the bad windstorm we had in Cypress a couple of weeks ago and getting our new fence installed from that, my wife was sure it was going to blow down last night. Thankfully wasn't as bad as you guys had it in Conroe/Magnolia/Spring, etc. But yeah, haven't seen storms with these kinds of winds in forever.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4547
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
VFR conditions prevailing at all sites this afternoon. Watching a
line of showers and thunderstorms north of CLL/UTS. Have included
VCTS at both sites for this afternoon. Timing of storms later this
afternoon into tonight remains uncertain as models continue to
vary on coverage/timing. Have initiation set for around the
20Z-21Z timeframe with activity ending around sunrise Friday
morning. Confidence is low on end time. MVFR/IFR CIGs will return
tonight with some patchy fog possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023
VFR conditions prevailing at all sites this afternoon. Watching a
line of showers and thunderstorms north of CLL/UTS. Have included
VCTS at both sites for this afternoon. Timing of storms later this
afternoon into tonight remains uncertain as models continue to
vary on coverage/timing. Have initiation set for around the
20Z-21Z timeframe with activity ending around sunrise Friday
morning. Confidence is low on end time. MVFR/IFR CIGs will return
tonight with some patchy fog possible.
&&
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4305
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Ensembles across the board unanimously agree the death ridge pattern meets its demise by the 1st of 2nd of july, the GEFS even has GOM troughing moving up from the caribbean, interesting, just gotta make it through the next 10-11 days and i see a big change in the 500 mb height pattern coming
Flash Flood warning Beaumont/ Trying to get home. Ill take this any day than 100 weather.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
I know I know. Beaumont. Rain. Flooding. I get it. But I cant help mother nature. If Houston was flooding, posts would be made also. Actually getting tired of the flooding here at the same time its exciting. Hopefully y'all will get something tonight.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
I saw Gainesville, FL had a flood warning. 75°F. They have sandy loam that drains fast though.
We have about a 27 hr window to get rain before The Big Suck revisits.
But only until July 1. Models and ensembles either kill the DR, or move it to Arizona.
We have about a 27 hr window to get rain before The Big Suck revisits.
But only until July 1. Models and ensembles either kill the DR, or move it to Arizona.
No relief from the heat here today. Got to 98°F with a 112°F heat index.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4305
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I like that 18z GFS run, sets up a caribbean moisture pineapple express train and just funnels moisture into the texas coast, just a little longer folks, the end
of this miserable heatwave pattern is in sight!
of this miserable heatwave pattern is in sight!