August 2023

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So glad I haven't been on city water for 14 years.

[Cpv17]

So glad I haven't been on city water for 14 years.

I’ve lived in the country my entire life. I wouldn’t know what it feels like to live inside city limits. And don’t care to find out either.

[captainbarbossa19]

It rained on me when I got to Starkville on Saturday afternoon. I was thinking to myself, "what is this stuff?" Haha! Today though, I seem to have brought the hot weather with me. It is currently about 100 outside. This drought is really sad for so many areas. It was rather brown most of my trip to Starkville from home until I got to Louisville, MS. A lot of Mississippi is now suffering too.

[Cpv17]

Hottest day of the year over here today. Topped out at 104°F with a heat index of 115°F. It’s hard to escape the heat these days. Not even the A/C can cool things down properly.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So glad I haven't been on city water for 14 years.

I’ve lived in the country my entire life. I wouldn’t know what it feels like to live inside city limits. And don’t care to find out either.

Agreed. Left Harris Co in 2009 and have never looked back. MoCo is now too big for me. Country Life >>>>>>>>>

[davidiowx]

Sugarland hit 105 according to the NWS observed weather page. My station topped out at 107.3. This is just brutal.

[djmike]

Im seeing an uptick on social media about a tropical wave possibly for Texas Monday-ish time frame??

[Ptarmigan]

Im seeing an uptick on social media about a tropical wave possibly for Texas Monday-ish time frame??

Next Monday could see higher rain chance. It does not say tropical wave.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 142320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

It`s been awhile...since I could talk about a FROPA. As we speak, a
weak surface cold front is making it`s way down I-45 from North
Texas and should at least be on approach to our far northeastern
counties by the evening hours. Depending on how close the front gets
during peak heating up there will determine if we could see see some
isolated convection in Houston County (not the city) this evening.
PW values may also be elevated enough for a rogue shower to develop
near Matagorda Bay later in the day as well. There are more notable
rain chances to talk about for Tuesday...skip to the next paragraph
if you want a headstart. Midlevel high remains overhead today
though, so our period of excessive heat continues for another day
with temperatures topping out in the 100-106°F range and heat index
values up to 110-115°F. As a result, the Excessive Heat Warning/Heat
Advisory combo remains in effect through this evening for all of
Southeast TX.

With the midlevel high retreating northwestward by tonight as an
upper level trough swings through the Upper Midwest, the cold front
will be able to push towards the coast by Tuesday afternoon. It`s
not expected to push offshore though and will stall somewhere along
the coast...this is important to note because PW values will surge
up to 1.9-2.2" along the boundary (90th percentile: ~2.19"). With
lift, moisture, and instability in place, some isolated to widely
scattered convection is expected to develop along the frontal
boundary Tuesday afternoon/evening. The best chances (~30%) will be
along and south of I-10. Northern locations won`t be left empty
handed from this front though as sufficiently drier dew points work
their way in throughout the day. Dew points are expected to make it
down into the LOW 50s by Tuesday afternoon, so it`ll feel absolutely
pleasant compared to the previous weeks. It`ll still be hot outside,
but a dry heat! Highs near 100 and heat index values around 100 as
well, so there will be no heat alerts in effect for the Brazos
Valley or the Piney Woods area for Tuesday. Along and south of I-10
is a different story...

With the front stalling out near the coast, moisture convergence and
compressional heating south of I-10 will lead to both even hotter
air temperatures and very elevated heat index values. Southwesterly
winds along the coast through the afternoon could lead to Galveston
challenging their daily record max temperature of 96°F. Temperatures
south of I-10 will range from 102-105°F with heat index values up to
113°F, so an Excessive Heat Warning will go into effect for these
areas tomorrow. A Heat Advisory will also be in effect for areas
just north of I-10 due to heat index values around 108-112°F.
Tuesday will make it day 17 in a row of heat alerts in effect for at
least some portion of Southeast Texas, so this stretch will become
our second longest streak of heat alerts this summer. I`ll end off
with some good news though...with drier air in place on Tuesday
night, we`ll see as much as a 10°F drop in overnight lows compared
to tonight for portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods areas.
We`ll go from widespread lows in the upper 70s/low 80s to lows in
the upper 60s/low 70s up north and mid to upper 70s along and south
of I-10.

With heat alerts remaining in effect through Tuesday, please
continue to keep heat safety at the top of your mind. Know the signs
of heat related illnesses, know the locations of the nearest cooling
centers, check on your family/friends/neighbors, drink plenty of
water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat, avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day,
wear light clothing/sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before
you lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws. Stay safe, stay cool, and stay hydrated.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Drier air will filter southward in the wake of the weak surface cold
front on Wednesday. The word `cold` is not the best descriptor of
this feature. However, most of the region will experience a drop in
humidity as dew points fall into the 50s and 60s. There is guidance
suggesting some areas could have dew points as low as the 40s
Wednesday afternoon. Near the coast, the forecast is a little
trickier due to uncertainties regarding the farthest south extent of
the front. It is expected to stall near the coast. If it manages to
push completely offshore, then the lower humidity could make it down
to the beaches. If it doesn`t, then expect coastal communities to
not only remain humid but also have a chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms. I`m sure one question on your mind is "will
temperatures cool off in the front`s wake?" Unfortunately, the
answer is no. Most inland areas are expected to reach the 98-103F
range. But at least it will be a drier heat. The drier air is
expected to allow most areas to drop below 80F on Wednesday night. A
few cooler spots in our northern counties could manage to drop into
the upper-60s. Brrr?

We return to the very hot and humid regime on Thursday and Friday
due to climbing dew points and peak afternoon inland temperatures in
the 100-105F range, possibly hotter in some areas. The coast will
remain in the 90s. Heat index values of ~110F are expected. Global
deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest a gradual change in the
pattern as we approach week`s end and into early next week. This
pattern entails a farther north orientation of the ridge, opening
the door to mid-level disturbances approaching southeast Texas from
the east. We start introducing 10-20 PoPs near the coast on Friday.
PoPs gradually increase through the weekend and reach near 30
percent over the southern half of the CWA on Sunday and 15-25
percent for the northern half. Temperatures are expected to remain
very hot through the weekend. However, there are some indications
that PoPs could increase further early next week along with less hot
temperatures. A little too early to be excited about heat relief
next week but we can always dream!

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

VFR this evening with any isolated SHRA/TSRA dissipating. Winds will
shift to the N overnight through tomorrow morning as the cold front
sags southward toward the coast. Looking for N winds inland and S winds
near/along the coast during the day tomorrow with possible isolated
SHRA/TSRA developing late in the afternoon near/across coastal counties.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Most of the week will feature light to moderate onshore winds and 2-
3 foot seas. An approaching weak frontal boundary could push far
enough to the south on Tuesday into Wednesday to either make winds
light and variable or result in a brief shift to the northwest. The
front will also bring a chance of isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity. The onshore flow regime returns by Thursday.
The risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
increases gradually by Friday into the weekend.

Self

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

With a weak frontal boundary approaching this afternoon/evening,
winds will remain below criteria for a Red Flag Warning. That being
said, conditions remain very dry with minimum RH values this
afternoon in the 20-30% range. Drier air moves in behind the front,
so Tuesday will feature even drier conditions as RH values around 20-
25% span across most areas north of I-10. As a result, extreme
caution should be taken if working outdoors with any flammable
materials. Wind directions will be fairly variable through Tuesday
morning as the front moves through.

Please keep in mind that all of the counties in Southeast Texas are
under a burn ban, so be sure to follow your local ordinances.
Forecast fire danger from the Texas A&M Forest Service remains at
high to very high for areas north of I-10 through midweek. Also
monitoring for increasing fuel dryness through midweek as levels
degrade from critically dry to extremely dry across most of the
region by Wednesday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  80 101  69 102 /  10  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  83 103  77 102 /  10  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  82  94  82  91 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
     164-176>179-195>200-210>213.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ200-210>213.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ214-227-237-
     238-300-313-338.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ226-235-236-
     335>337-436>439.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ226-235-236-
     335>337-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

[djmike]

Woo hoo. NWS LC put 50% chance of rain possibly Monday. Not saying that will happen as we know how this song and dance goes, but its been forever Ive seen more than 10% chance in almost two months on their site. Ill take it! Just don't taketh away.

[captainbarbossa19]

We're really getting to a point now where we are truly desperate for rain. Texas has declared a wildfire disaster declaration and Louisiana has declared a state of emergency due to the dry and hot weather conditions. People are being evacuated from homes in Sabine Parish, Louisiana due to a spreading wildfire. I also learned from my family that there was a field fire close to home that almost got out of control back in Jefferson County today. Multiple fire trucks had to be dispatched to stop the flames. I think that fire danger is probably at or near record levels currently in this area, especially with the surge of population in Texas. With more homes and more people, the risk of a large fire breaking out will only increase.

[Cromagnum]

Seen plenty of morons throwing lit cigarettes out of their cars down 288. Also seen aftermath of some grass fires on the edge of the highway too.

[jasons2k]

Front came through here at 7:30 just as I started my run. A tad less humidity with the wind shift. Unfortunately that means any rain today/tonight should be south of me.

[Cromagnum]

The discussion I just read had what little rain, if any at all, relegated to the coast.

[DoctorMu]

A dry FROPA from Brenham to Huntsville made it through CLL this morning. NE breeze, DP at 58°F and the heat index is finally lower than the temp.. It will be a few degrees cooler 101°F vs. yesterday's 107°F.

Aggies should "enjoy" 2 days of drier weather before more reality.

On Monday there's a whopping 20% chance of rain. But it's a start.

[DoctorMu]

Oh, and 75°F and 56°F DP up here in Minneapolis. Good times!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Oh, and 75°F and 56°F DP up here in Minneapolis. Good times!

I hate you right now!

[tireman4]

Oh, and 75°F and 56°F DP up here in Minneapolis. Good times!

I hate you right now!

Oh rub it in, why dontcha..lol

[Cromagnum]

Here cones the seabreeze

[jasons2k]

Here cones the seabreeze

Yep, it’s trying. Fighting that offshore flow. Maybe something will pop for someone.

[TexasBreeze]

That dryline front feels just the tiniest bit better. 30's% humidity.