Extratropical Storm Igor Near Greenland

[srainhoutx]

Yet another in a series of Cape Verde waves has been declared...formerly know as PGI41

Code: Select all

000
WHXX01 KWBC 071856
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1856 UTC TUE SEP 7 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100907 1800 100908 0600 100908 1800 100909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 20.5W 14.5N 22.7W 14.5N 25.4W 14.2N 28.5W
BAMD 14.1N 20.5W 14.7N 23.0W 15.4N 25.7W 15.9N 28.6W
BAMM 14.1N 20.5W 14.6N 22.5W 15.0N 25.1W 15.2N 28.0W
LBAR 14.1N 20.5W 14.8N 22.2W 15.7N 24.5W 16.6N 27.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100909 1800 100910 1800 100911 1800 100912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 31.9W 12.5N 38.6W 11.0N 42.1W 11.7N 41.2W
BAMD 16.4N 31.7W 17.1N 37.9W 16.5N 44.0W 15.0N 49.3W
BAMM 15.4N 31.2W 15.5N 37.8W 14.2N 43.7W 12.8N 46.9W
LBAR 17.9N 30.7W 20.2N 37.4W 21.0N 42.8W 16.0N 43.7W
SHIP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS
DSHP 40KTS 58KTS 70KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 19.5W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 17.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[kayci]

no.... no more please....

[Ptarmigan]

If 91L develops into Igor, it could be a very large storm.

[srainhoutx]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE NEAR A
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER
THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[wxman57]

Yep, this will be Igor in 3-4 days. Almost certainly not a Houston threat due to its quite far north location for so far east. Could be a large and powerful hurricane.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we have a TD...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912010_al112010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009081358
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 11, 2010, DB, O, 2010090718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL112010
AL, 11, 2010090700, , BEST, 0, 128N, 189W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2010090706, , BEST, 0, 132N, 195W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2010090712, , BEST, 0, 137N, 201W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2010090718, , BEST, 0, 140N, 211W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2010090800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 219W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2010090806, , BEST, 0, 140N, 227W, 30, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2010090812, , BEST, 0, 137N, 233W, 30, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[wxman57]

Make that Igor in 3-4 minutes... Wow! That's a big surprise. Can't imagine why the NHC is upgrading it so early with 2 competing centers and the degree of disorganization presently. Maybe they're bored with Hermine gone and Gaston dying? Back to hurricane shifts...

[srainhoutx]

I noticed the two vorts and figured the NHC would wait on some consolidation before upgrading. TS you say wxman57?

[wxman57]

I noticed the two vorts and figured the NHC would wait on some consolidation before upgrading. TS you say wxman57?

Model guidance had the header:

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100908 1200 UTC

Initialized at 35 kts. But best track has 30 kts. Guess we won't know for 15-20 min.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah, I see now. Interesting year with the various research projects. I wonder without those projects where we would be number wise so far.

[srainhoutx]

ASCAT did catch a spin...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... MBds32.png

[ticka1]

TS IGOR?

AL, 11, 2010090812, , BEST, 0, 137N, 233W, 35, 1005, TS

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081459
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 08 2010

...IGOR FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 23.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO
TIAGO...FOGO..AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.5 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW.

DATA FROM A MICROWAVE SATELLITE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

Interesting snip from the discussion regarding future track of Igor...



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD MOTION AT AN INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...FORCING THE STORM TO MOVE
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SHORT-TERM
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IGOR WILL INTERACT WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

[wxman57]

Some fascinating climo. I plotted all September storms passing within 65nm of Igor's point of formation from 1851-2009. There were 13 such storms. Here's the breakdown:

3 dissipated shortly after being designated
5 recurved well out to sea
5 struck the U.S.!! (2 of those hit the NE Caribbean)

Of the 5 that made landfall, there was:
1. The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane, which was also the only Cat 5 to hit PR
2. The Great 1938 New England Hurricane
3. The 1947 Hurricane that hit SE Florida as a major then New Orleans as a Cat 1
4. 1985's Gloria that struck the NE Caribbean then Long Island.
5. 1989's Hugo that devastated SC/NC

Those are some big names in the past. "I" storms often seem to be quite strong hurricanes that cause a lot of problems. Will this be Igor's first and only time the name is used? We'll see!

[Met Tech]

Some fascinating climo. I plotted all September storms passing within 65nm of Igor's point of formation from 1851-2009. There were 13 such storms. Here's the breakdown:

Very interesting...could be a suspenseful 10 days or so then. Thanks for posting that!

[cisa]

very interesting.

[Andrew]

[srainhoutx]

The double vort continues. I suspect this will take awhile to consolidate and may travel a bit more W than progged. We shall see. Looks like a large storm as well.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091430
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010

...IGOR NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 24.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 092038
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010

...IGOR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 26.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.