November 2023

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151156
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

A quiet period with near normal temperatures and patchy fog at
nights can be expected today and Thursday.

Areas of fog, generally patchy and locally dense will continue
through early/mid morning. Then, a dry and slightly warmer day is
expected as the upper level ridge and surface high pressure build
over TX. Light north to northeast winds and low humidity can be
expected with near normal temperatures. Afternoon temperatures
will run a few degrees warmer than previous days, with highs from
the low to mid 70s. Tonight is shaping up to be mild with another
round of patchy fog, some locally dense across most of SE TX. Low
clouds/stratus area also anticipated with cloudy skies mostly
along and east of I-45. Ridging aloft will continue to dominate
the weather pattern on Thursday. Decreasing cloud cover, daytime
heating and light winds will lead to widespread areas with highs
mainly in the mid 70s. Overnight lows generally in the mid 50s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

Benign weather conditions to be expected through the end of the
week as mid level ridging continues to dominate the local weather
pattern. Although a weak cold front is to pass through Southeast
Texas sometime on Friday, rain development is not expected at this
time. Temperatures on Friday will warm up a little more with
highs forecasted to be in the upper 70s for much of the region.
Cooler drier air moving in behind the front could decrease the
highs a few degrees on Saturday, in particular for the northern
counties. Currently, highs in the low to mid 70s are possible over
the areas north of I-10 while the areas near and south of I-10
could remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Rain chances could return as early as Sunday. The ridge weakens
in response to an upper level trough moving across the Four
Corners region on Sunday. Southerly wind flow is to return that
day as well and will be transporting low level moisture from the
Gulf, increasing our PWs to around 1.2-1.5 inches by Sunday
evening and may be enough to result in isolated to scattered
showers over portions of Southeast Texas. In addition, weaknesses
ahead of the trough could move overhead and may be able to aid in
the development of showers. An increase in showers and isolated
thunderstorms can be expected Monday as the upper level trough
moves across the Southern Plains and a cold front approaches
Southeast Texas. There are inconsistencies between the models on
the timing of the front, thus, went with a blended solution
instead. This forecast package has the frontal boundary pushing
through the region sometime Monday afternoon, but this timing
could change a little during the next few days. For now, expect
the stronger activity to take place ahead of the front on Monday
morning and early afternoon more or less along the front. Rain
chances will be decreasing shortly after its passage. Cooler drier
air will filter in Monday night into Tuesday and bring back some
of that "chilly" weather. Temperatures just before sunrise on
Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 40s to low 50s and by the
mid afternoon hours, temperatures are expected to peak in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Cotto (24)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

The main aviation concern early this morning is reduced
visibility due to patchy fog. Conditions should improve to VFR in
the next couple of hours. North to northeast winds up to around
10 knots will prevail today, becoming light and variable after
sunset. A mix of MVFR to LIFR conditions due to low clouds and fog
will be possible tonight, especially towards the end of this TAF
cycle. Highest probabilities of IFR to LIFR conditions are progged
to be for terminals north of IAH, including CLL. Have only
included MVFR ceilings and 6SM BR for this set of TAFs, but will
continue to monitor trends and amend accordingly throughout the
day.


JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

Light to occasionally moderate northeast winds and seas
of 2 to 4 feet will prevail through Thursday evening. A weak dry
cold front will push through the coastal waters sometime Friday
and bring back light north to northwest winds Friday night. Winds
will turn from north to east on Saturday and turn southeast on
Sunday. Winds are expected to increase Sunday night into Monday
ahead of the next cold front and Caution Flags may be required.
Expect stronger northerly winds and elevated seas in the wake of
the front Monday night into Tuesday. Cautions flags and Small
Craft Advisories will be needed Monday night through at least
Tuesday night. Areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible ahead and along the cold front.

Cotto (24)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 52 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 55 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 59 70 62 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CST today for
GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Cotto
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Cotto

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

The primary concern through tomorrow morning is the low-level cloud
deck slowly pushing westward over East Texas. Cigs, and eventually
vis, are expected to drop to MVFR/IFR this evening/overnight. The
cloud deck`s time of arrival is somewhat uncertain. This uncertainty
is expressed via the lowering FEW/SCT deck at 21Z in the TAFs near
the I-45 corridor. Areas of IFR cigs and vis are likely late
overnight and into the early morning hours. The chance of locally
LIFR cigs/vis is increasing as well. Current hi-res guidance suggest
that it could take until late morning or early afternoon tomorrow
before VFR conditions return. Winds will remain light and generally
from the N to NE through the TAF period.

[Stratton20]

Time frame just after thanksgiving is really beginning to get my interest, Alaskan Ridging may allow the arctic air flood gates to open, CMC is very cold, GFS is also very cold as well

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161158
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
558 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 342 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023

Widespread low clouds prevail over the region in response to the
low pressure system spinning over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico. Current and forecast soundings continue to suggest a
saturated near surface layer (roughly 925:800mb) along with some
weak isentropic ascent. This will result in patchy drizzle/very
light rain rather than just low stratus through around 8-10am,
generally east of I-45. Then a relatively dry day can be expected
with mostly cloudy skies and light northeast to southeast winds.
Abundant cloud cover will inhibit temperatures to climb well in
the upper 70s today. Highs from the upper 60s to low 70s can be
expected. Another cloudy and mild night is on tap for the region
with overnight temperatures mainly in the upper 50s.

Clouds will gradually clear by late mid-morning Friday, leading
to more sunshine and warmer temperatures. A weak cold front will
move through the region late Friday afternoon/night. Rain chances
along the FROPA are very minimal with only an isolated shower or
two possible ahead of the boundary.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023

The weekend is expected to start out rather nice and tranquil with
partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70s on Saturday. A switch in
the weather pattern is expected Sunday as an upper level trough
moves across the Southern Plains while onshore flow increases low
level moisture over Southeast Texas. We may begin to see some
isolated to scattered showers developing sometime late Sunday
afternoon or Sunday evening, mainly over areas north of I-10. Chance
for showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase and spread
southward during the day on Monday as a cold front approaches
Southeast Texas. Once the front moves through, cool dry air
filtering in behind it will cease the rain chances. There`s still
some inconsistencies between the models on the timing of the front,
thus, continued with a blended solution. For this forecast package,
the front is progged to move through Southeast Texas sometime Monday
afternoon or evening with the cool dry air mass spreading across the
region Monday night. This timing could change a little during the
next few days, however.

Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday with highs forecast to be
around the mid to upper 50s over areas north of I-10 and in the low
60s over areas near and south of I-10. Continued CAA will result in
a very chilly night Tuesday night with lows dipping into the upper
30s to low 40s over areas north of I-10 and in the low to mid 40s
for areas near and south of I-10. Though a gradual warming is
expected mid week, cool and tranquil conditions will prevail through
Thanksgiving Day. The highs on Wednesday will be in the low 60s and
on Thursday they will be in the upper 60s. The lows on Wednesday
night will be in the 40s for much of the area (cooler over the Piney
Woods region) and on Thursday night they will be in the low to mid
50s.

Cotto (24)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023

Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions due to low clouds/stratus will
prevaiL this morning. A gradual improvement to MVFR is progged by
late morning/early afternoon with light north-northeast winds. CLL
could see VFR conditions later this afternoon. Conditions will
generally remain MVFR this evening/overnight with IFR ceilings
possible towards the end of this TAF cycle.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023

Light to occasionally moderate northeast winds and seas of 4 feet or
less will prevail through Thursday. A weak cold front will pass
through Friday night and result in a brief wind shift. On Saturday,
winds will be turning northeast to east during the day and turn
southeast Saturday night. Onshore flow continues Sunday and
strengthens as another stronger cold front approaches Southeast
Texas. The front is progged to move into the waters sometime Monday
night with strong northerly winds and elevated seas developing in
its wake. Small Craft Advisories, or possibly Gale Warnings, may be
required Monday night into Tuesday. Winds and seas gradually subside
Wednesday.

Cotto (24)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 55 77 58 / 10 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 71 58 77 59 / 10 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 62 73 62 / 10 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24

[jasons2k]

You can really see the refineries on the visible satellite loops this morning.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2023

Today`s low-level stratus regime will continue through tonight and
into tomorrow morning. Though brief VFR cigs are possible late
this afternoon and early evening, most areas are expected to
remain MVFR or less. We are indicating mostly MVFR this afternoon.
However, uncertainties exist regarding how much current IFR
conditions will linger. Cigs and vis are expected to lower again
tonight into early tomorrow morning with IFR conditions likely at
many of our TAF sites. There may be a period of LIFR tomorrow
morning before cigs and vis improve. Current time estimate for
improving conditions tomorrow is around 1500 UTC. Winds will
remain light through the TAF period.

[Cromagnum]

As if the summer heat and chinch bugs didn't kill enough lawns. Fungus is taking care of any survivors. This year has been absolutely awful for St Augustine.

[DoctorMu]

Brown patch doesn't kill the roots. It just looks bad. I want a frost or two so the entire lawn goes dormant.

[Cpv17]

Interesting. The GFS is picking up on another coastal low for the middle part of next week. As of right now it looks like late Monday/early Tuesday and then Wednesday or Thursday of next week for a couple decent chances of rain.

Also, I forgot to mention I ended up getting 3.25” altogether from the last round of rain.

[user:null]

Brown patch doesn't kill the roots. It just looks bad. I want a frost or two so the entire lawn goes dormant.

I actually just realized that even IAH has yet to record a freeze this year 2023, the lowest so far being 33°F from earlier this Feb. Hobby, which I mentioned in a previous post is, is 37°F from earlier this Jan.

I can see arguments from either side regarding freezes and vegetative effects. Going without a freeze, combined with ample El Nino rain, could help vegetation grow more without additional stress — on the other hand, a freeze would aid in stopping activities from any pests and such.

[Stratton20]

CPC has a slight risk of hazardous temperatures for all of se texas after thanksgiving, interesting

[Cpv17]

CPC has a slight risk of hazardous temperatures for all of se texas after thanksgiving, interesting

And above average precipitation at the same time.

[sambucol]

Sounds great!

[DoctorMu]

Brown patch doesn't kill the roots. It just looks bad. I want a frost or two so the entire lawn goes dormant.

I actually just realized that even IAH has yet to record a freeze this year 2023, the lowest so far being 33°F from earlier this Feb. Hobby, which I mentioned in a previous post is, is 37°F from earlier this Jan.

I can see arguments from either side regarding freezes and vegetative effects. Going without a freeze, combined with ample El Nino rain, could help vegetation grow more without additional stress — on the other hand, a freeze would aid in stopping activities from any pests and such.

That would only mean more weeds in College Station in the early Spring. Freezes dampen them down. We average about 13 lows of 32 degrees or below.

We were just about average last year. Crushed in 2021 of course.

That's an amazing record for IAH.

[Stratton20]

00z ICON is very cold, now thats an impressive arctic fromt on that run

[sambucol]

Trend happening? How cold is cold on that run for SETX?

[don]

The pattern is looking more and more interesting after the 20th.Very El Nino,with models showing a potent cut off Baja Low.

[Cpv17]

The pattern is looking more and more interesting after the 20th.Very El Nino,with models showing a potent cut off Baja Low.

That’s what you love to see. Love when those systems dig down deep into the Baja like that.

[Stratton20]

Now thats a winter storm on the Euro, gets that surface low cranking! CMC bas a really nasty ice storm

[Cpv17]

Now thats a winter storm on the Euro, gets that surface low cranking! CMC bas a really nasty ice storm

Southeast ridge might be poking its nose into southeast TX though. Would keep the coldest anomalies north and west of us and eject the system over north Texas instead of central Texas. Hopefully it stays far enough away. Also, would like to see the models trend a lil colder.