January 2024

[Pas_Bon]

I heard THUNDER for the first time in decades (lol) early this morning in League City. *Smitten*

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Herzog finally mentioning the possibility of Artic air coming middle of the month.

That's a change in tune.....he was almost belligerent toward the idea just a few days ago and essentially mocking those who were espousing the cold forecasts.

Some on air mets hug models run to run. In winter you typically find out who is guilty of that.

[Cpv17]

Herzog finally mentioning the possibility of Artic air coming middle of the month.

That's a change in tune.....he was almost belligerent toward the idea just a few days ago and essentially mocking those who were espousing the cold forecasts.

Some on air mets hug models run to run. In winter you typically find out who is guilty of that.

The signs are almost crystal clear that cold is coming. With the negative teleconnections all lining up, it’s damn near a lock at this point but a lot of casuals won’t believe it till the operationals show it.

[sambucol]

Larry Cosgrove this morning:

The two disturbances behind the “2 ABC” system must be watched because with a huge dome of brutally cold air available, two complications may arise. One will be the threat of an ice storm; overrunning is almost assured in a shallow cold air mass with that subtropical high in Hispaniola. One is a sudden drainage of the Arctic regime into the south central states. Keep in mind that in a situation like this, cAk values almost always head south before going east. TX and the lower Mississippi Valley must closely watch events.

Full article:
https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/05/

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m debating leaving for Montana this weekend and staying for this invasion. I’m down for some 40 to 50 below

[christinac2016]

My mom, the forever pessimist, doesn’t believe in coming of cold air.

[Cpv17]

Regarding the possibility of severe weather Monday. The ingredients will be in place to get discreet supercells in SE Texas.(Could even go enhanced risk or greater).While saying that, the main inhibiting factors is if the cap can break(due to the SW flow aloft), and if enough instability will be available. It will be interesting to see what the mesoscale models show over the weekend.

To me it’s looking like another morning to early afternoon event for most of us. Think it would be much worse if it were late afternoon and into the evening.

[don]

Picked up 1.30 inches overnight.

[don]

Some of the mesoscale models did a good job when it comes to rainfall amounts and locations.

[Cpv17]

Some of the mesoscale models did a good job when it comes to rainfall amounts and locations.

This map is interesting cuz it shows me only getting about a half inch when I picked up 1.25”.

[Cromagnum]

KPRC already hyping up the Hurricane forecast. A bit excessive with the title.

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... r-houston/

[snowman65]

KPRC already hyping up the Hurricane forecast. A bit excessive with the title.

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... r-houston/

I saw that yesterday

[don]

Some of the mesoscale models did a good job when it comes to rainfall amounts and locations.

This map is interesting cuz it shows me only getting about a half inch when I picked up 1.25”.

Radars can sometimes underestimate rainfall amounts, especially if the rain is tropical in nature. As the small rain droplets don't reflect as heavy on the radar beam.

[djmike]

Some of the mesoscale models did a good job when it comes to rainfall amounts and locations.

Where can I view this map? Or do you have a link?

[don]

Some of the mesoscale models did a good job when it comes to rainfall amounts and locations.

Where can I view this map? Or do you have a link?

(You can change the radar location using the top left button on the map.)

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/? ... 00-usa-rad

[djmike]

Some of the mesoscale models did a good job when it comes to rainfall amounts and locations.

Where can I view this map? Or do you have a link?

(You can change the radar location using the top left button on the map.)

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/? ... 00-usa-rad

Awesome! Thank you

[DoctorMu]

Some of the mesoscale models did a good job when it comes to rainfall amounts and locations.

This map is interesting cuz it shows me only getting about a half inch when I picked up 1.25”.

0.72 inches here whereas the map recorded less than half of that. Periods of drizzle were likely underestimated.

That front in the middle of the month could initiate a sea change.

[DoctorMu]

It's 57°F here currently under blue skies. We've had the late Fall and early winter more like I remember back in the day.

[Cpv17]

KPRC already hyping up the Hurricane forecast. A bit excessive with the title.

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2 ... r-houston/

I made a thread about our upcoming hurricane season. He copied JB’s forecast.

[Cpv17]

Some parts of Matagorda County picked up 5-6” of rain early this morning.