TD Karl Inland West of Veracruz, MX

[wxman57]

New model guidance just out - initialized at 85 kts / 100 mph = Cat 2

[Katdaddy]

You can see a very small pin-wheel eye on the IR sat. Hopefully this will spare populated areas. This is the worst-case TC scenario...RI close to shore with little time for the general public to prepare.

[Scott747]

Josh is at LAX and about to board his plane. ETA for Mexico City is around midnight.

Convinced him to look at getting a driver for the trek to Veracruz so we're frantically trying to obtain one. Needless to say the timing issue is a constraint but there was no way around it with how things have evolved.

Thanks for the update Scott. This intercept is a dream storm for Josh I hear. He has been well advised by the team that supports his efforts, no doubt. We wish him a safe and successful intercept...

Yep. This is shaping up to be his fantasy storm. Currently negotiating with a few services to get him to Veracruz. So far we're both playing hardball.

[Andrew]

Haven't been able to get on much today but wow! Some RI really did happen. Cat 2 looks reasonable for landfall but cat 3 seems possible.

[srainhoutx]

Cat 2...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 170240
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
HAVE REACHED T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 90 KNOTS AT
0000 UTC. SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT...
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE CROSSED THE EYE A FEW TIMES THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE DROPPED TO 968 MB AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REACHED 90
KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ACCOMPANIED BY SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF
85 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 85 KNOTS. THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS WE SPEAK. KARL HAS
LESS THAN A DAY BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KARL TO BE A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL
OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT KARL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS.

KARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED
SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AMONG
MODELS...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP KARL ON A STRAIGHT
WESTWARD PATH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOLLOWED BY A LANDFALL OVER
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.7N 94.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 19.7N 95.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.7N 96.8W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1200Z 19.5N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 100.0W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[desiredwxgd]

Karl is looking pretty decent tonight. Imagine if he had some real time over the GOM and not just in the Bay of Campeche what might have been…



Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Ptarmigan]

If Karl becomes a major hurricane, it would be the fourth this month and fifth so far this season. I predicted 5 major hurricanes and we are barely over with it. I think we could see more major hurricanes once it is over. I think we could break the record of 8 major hurricanes set in 1950.

[srainhoutx]

RECON found a ragged eyewall on the first vortex message...

[Andrew]

Cat 3 is looking more and more likely right before landfall and the worst part is due to the strengthening process being so close to land it will take that much longer to weaken over land.

[srainhoutx]

Holding steady...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 05:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 24
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 5:05:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°39'N 94°42'W (19.65N 94.7W)
B. Center Fix Location: 163 miles (263 km) to the NW (315°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,797m (9,177ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (127°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 219° at 86kts (From the SW at ~ 99.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed, RAGGED WALL
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:09:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:09:30Z
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:08:50Z

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 170536
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...KARL A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE
COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED...AND KARL COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. A JOINT U.S. EPA AND MEXICAN GOVERNMENT OBSERVING
STATION ON SACRIFICE ISLAND NEAR VERACRUZ RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...58 KM/HR...AND A GUST TO 41 MPH...66
KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

It is my understanding that Josh has arrived in Mexico City and is enroute to Veracruz with a driver. Hopefully Scott will have an update shortly.

[vci_guy2003]

I expect cat 4 later this morning

[MRG93415]

Wow this thing really got going since yesterday....Glad this isnt in our direction...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171157
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE KARL APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KARL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...AND MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARL IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER KARL MOVES
INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR IMMINENT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Waiting on a first visible image...

[wxman57]

Not much happening in Veracruz - yet. Winds SW (210 deg) at 10-15 kts at 7:42am CDT.

MMVR| |171242|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|210|010|000|29.56|999|OVC|Light Rain
MMVR| |171225|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|210|015|000|29.57|999|OVC|Rain
MMVR| |171145|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|200|010|000|29.60|7|OVC|Light Rain
MMVR| |171049|73.0F|71.0F|94.1%|200|010|000|29.61|999|OVC|Light Rain
MMVR| |171000|73.0F|71.0F|94.1%|220|020|000|29.65|999|OVC|Light Rain

[srainhoutx]

First visible...

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 13:09Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 12:55:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°32'N 95°41'W (19.5333N 95.6833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (337 km) to the WNW (301°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,752m (9,029ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SE (144°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 233° at 97kts (From the SW at ~ 111.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 98kts (~ 112.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:58:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 98kts (~ 112.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:58:30Z

[srainhoutx]

Nearing landfall...appears to be heading just N of Veracruz near Chachalacas...