May 2024

[DoctorMu]

If anyone wants to see just how bad the winds were the other day watch this video of downtown near the Wells Fargo bank...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agEamWQ2V3s

Yeah there’s a lot to unpack in that video. Plus it serves as a great example of why you do not want to be in the Downtown area during a hurricane or derecho due to the funneling of strong winds.

+ a tornado.

[DoctorMu]

Welp. Deja Vu all over again...there's a NASTY cell moving SE from Brownwood.

The air is far warmer and more juicy here today than last Thursday. 77.5 DP; 92°F

Watch out for that right turn.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like a mid-cap jailbreak is taking place.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

FWIW - the dreaded future radar has a bow echo slamming into College Station about 7:30 pm.

[869MB]

Looks like a mid-cap jailbreak is taking place.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

FWIW - the dreaded future radar has a bow echo slamming into College Station about 7:30 pm.

Well CAPE is definitely not an issue for your area...

SPC - SURFACE CAPE - 5.22.2024 - 2226HRS.png (5.95 MiB) Viewed 930 times

SPC - MIXED LAYER CAPE - 5.22.2024 - 2226HRS.png (5.64 MiB) Viewed 930 times

[DoctorMu]

The Brownwood cell is blasting into Temple. There's a tornado warning as rotation of the cell can be seen on the GOES satellite. I hope it runs low on fuel as it heads down Hwy 190/future I-14/Hwy 6 toward CLL.


Tornado Warning
5/22/2024 18:28 CDT through 5/22/2024 19:00 CDT

Tornado Warning issued May 22 at 6:28PM CDT until May 22 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX
TORFWD

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Bell County in central Texas...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 628 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Temple, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Temple around 635 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Edgeworth, Leedale, Cyclone, Heidenheimer, Ratibor, Airville, Seaton,
Sparks, Zabcikville, and Red Ranger.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 286 and 303.
Instructions
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.
Sender NWS Fort Worth TX
Sent 5/22/2024 18:28 CDT

[DoctorMu]

North Houston to Beaumont, I would keep an eye on this cell just in case.

The Mesos have the cell weakening as it approached I-45, but we know the recent track record of the models this spring and severe season.

We're nearly an hour and a half to sunset. It's pretty dark out there.

[don]

Yikes...

download (16).png (1.35 MiB) Viewed 908 times

[DoctorMu]

Yikes...



download (16).png

Yep. That hook echo went right over Temple and Scott & White Hospital

[DoctorMu]

Tornado Watch
5/22/2024 18:43 CDT through 5/23/2024 00:00 CDT

Tornado Watch issued May 22 at 6:43PM CDT until May 23 at 12:00AM CDT by NWS Houston/Galveston TX
The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 291 in
effect until midnight CDT tonight for the following areas

In Texas this watch includes 11 counties

In southeast Texas

Brazos Burleson Grimes
Houston Madison Montgomery
Polk San Jacinto Trinity
Walker Washington

This includes the cities of Brenham, Bryan, Caldwell, Coldspring,
College Station, Conroe, Corrigan, Crockett, Groveton,
Huntsville, Livingston, Madisonville, Navasota, Shepherd,
Somerville, The Woodlands, and Trinity.
Sender NWS Houston/Galveston TX
Sent 5/22/2024 18:43 CDT
Brazos, TX; Burleson, TX; Grimes, TX; Houston, TX; Madison, TX; Montgomery, TX; Polk, TX; San Jacinto, TX; Trinity, TX; Walker, TX; Washington, TX

[DoctorMu]

As expected:

Tornado Warning
5/22/2024 18:46 CDT through 5/22/2024 19:15 CDT

Tornado Warning issued May 22 at 6:46PM CDT until May 22 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX
TORFWD

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Milam County in central Texas...
East central Bell County in central Texas...
South central Falls County in central Texas...

* Until 715 PM CDT.

* At 645 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Rogers, or 12 miles northwest of Cameron, moving
southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Cameron around 655 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Minerva, Hanover, Barclay, Ben Arnold, Cyclone, Wilson, Sharp,
Maysfield, Yarrelton, and Hoyte.
Instructions
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

[DoctorMu]

There was visual sighting in Temple of the tornado. 30% of Bell Co. is without power. Damage reports are coming in.

[DoctorMu]

Confirmed visual damage in Temple from the tornado, including a roof torn off a house.

Tornado Warning
5/22/2024 19:02 CDT through 5/22/2024 19:15 CDT

Tornado Warning issued May 22 at 7:02PM CDT until May 22 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX
At 701 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Cameron, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Milam County, including the following locations... Jones
Prairie, Silver City, Ben Arnold, Burlington, Maysfield, Yarrelton,
Branchville, and Crossroads.
Instructions
TAKE COVER NOW! If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter now! Get to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid
windows.
Sender NWS Fort Worth TX
Sent 5/22/2024 19:02 CDT

[DoctorMu]

The cells seems to have peaked and is not growing. It may slip just a few miles to our north in Bryan and follow Hwy 30 to Huntsville, probably as a wind and hail event. Fingers crossed.

We still have a tornado watch for us in the Brazos Valley. A hook echo near Bremont, but should remain a cow twister...

[DoctorMu]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
5/22/2024 19:26 CDT through 5/22/2024 20:00 CDT

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 22 at 7:26PM CDT until May 22 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Houston/Galveston TX
SVRHGX

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
North central Burleson County in southeastern Texas...
Brazos County in southeastern Texas...
Western Madison County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 800 PM CDT.

* At 725 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hearne,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
College Station, Bryan, Kurten, Wixon Valley, Kyle Field, Bryan
Utilities Lake, Normangee, Iola, North Zulch, and Carlos.
Instructions
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning
are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is
one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Texas.
Sender NWS Houston/Galveston TX
Sent 5/22/2024 19:26 CDT

[DoctorMu]

Some rotation just east of Hearne.

I put down some fertilizer after a mow without using the sprinklers. Should provide and escape?

[DoctorMu]

Just missed. While it could be the beginning of "just missed" season for CLL and my lawn, I don't mind a break this evening. Ask me in a week!

There's a hook echo just NE of Madisonville, so the cell could rock on into Louisiana.

Edit: I ran one sector of the sprinkler system in the front to soak in the Sta-Green Max high nitrogen, high iron fertilize and a back building shower sure enough popped up. lol There's a broad hook echo near Trinity, but it looks like a wind and small hail event as the cell promenades eastward.

[Stratton20]

I really dont see any sort of big heat ridge setup in the guidance anytime soon or even perhaps for the next few weeks, GFS continues to see a couple of cold fronts sliding through over the next few weeks! We shall see

[Pas_Bon]

I really dont see any sort of big heat ridge setup in the guidance anytime soon or even perhaps for the next few weeks, GFS continues to see a couple of cold fronts sliding through over the next few weeks! We shall see

I'll believe it when I see it. I feel like we are charging forward to another scorching, dry summer setup. I hope I am wrong.

[tireman4]

17
FXUS64 KHGX 230804
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Strong, broad ridging extending from the Eastern Pacific-Mexico-
Western Gulf of Mexico will hold tough. Mainly zonal/westerly flow
on its northern periphery (locally) with subtle disturbances passing
through from time-to-time. H85 temps 20-22C and H7 temps 10-14C will
put a damper on rain chances for most of us today & Friday.
Exception could be our northernmost counties in the Brazos Valley
and Piney Woods where conditions won`t be quite as hostile. Global
and hires guidance indicates opportunities for some isolated to
scattered convection. First chance possibly today in association
with a subtle impulse(s), differential heating, and maybe any
remnant outflows left over from yesterday evening`s storms. Second
chance might come late Friday afternoon or evening where several
models indicate a cluster of convection initiating on parts of the
dryline in nctl Tx. Can`t rule out the possibility of a few strong-
severe cells, but looks like areas just north of the CWA would see
the better possibilities at the moment.

Otherwise, continued summerlike conditions prevailing into the end
of the work week with daytime highs in the lower 90s and overnight
lows 75-81. Winds in the 10-20mph range should at least provide a
touch of relief during the day. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Well you can`t spell Houston without "hot" and that`s going to be
buzzword throughout the holiday weekend (especially Memorial Day).
To help you prepare for these hot temperatures, I challenge you to
get hydrated by taking a sip of WATER every time you see words that
include hot or heat (including the two in the first two sentences).
An upper level high will continue to sit over northern Mexico
through the weekend leading to persistent ridging, so nothing but
hot and dry conditions are in store for us through late Monday. On
Saturday, we`ll still have a lingering frontal boundary to our west
with the surface low centered in the Central Plains. With Southeast
Texas in the warm sector of this surface low, we`ll have enhanced
low-level moisture transport leading to increased humidity. When you
combine that with the increasingly southwesterly flow at 850mb
leading to 850mb temperatures near their MAX percentiles
(NAEFS/GEFS), and we have our first (mini) heatwave of the year.
Interestingly, this is occuring before both meteorological and
astronomical summer...neat! The average first day of 95+F
temperatures for the City of Houston is June 13th, and if the
forecast holds then we`re going to reach that about two weeks ahead
of the average. Suffice to say, this round of heat is unseasonably
early.

High temperatures on Saturday will be in the low 90s with heat index
values in the 101-106F range. We turn up the heat a bit higher for
Sunday with most inland locations topping out in the mid 90s for air
temperature with heat index values in the 102-110F range. Keep in
mind that our criteria for a Heat Advisory is heat index values at
or above 108F, so Sunday will likely feature our first one of the
year. We`ll likely follow that up with another Heat Advisory on
Memorial Day/Monday, which still looks to be the hottest day of the
forecast period with air temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and
heat index values in the 103-111F range. Don`t expect much of any
relief during the overnight hours as it`s going to be warm and muggy
with low temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80F.

Now let`s talk about HeatRisk. Saturday through Monday most of
Southeast Texas is outlined in a "Major" risk (level 3 out of 4),
which means that this level of heat affects anyone without effective
cooling and/or adequate hydration. This is occuring on a holiday
weekend and we know that many of you have outdoor plans, so PLEASE
be sure to practice heat safety to protect yourselves and your loved
ones. Drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks from the sun,
avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the
day, wear loose/lightweight clothing, know the signs of heat
stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you
lock your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the
ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for
their paws. Don`t forget the sunscreen too!

Rain chances return on Monday night as a frontal boundary pushes
into Southeast Texas. The best chance of seeing showers/storms will
be north of I-10...oh and don`t get too excited about that front.
While temperatures do look slightly cooler, we`re only looking at
dropping back into the low 90s. That`s certainly better than the
upper 90s though, and we`ll have the added bonus of dew points in
the 60s again. Rain chances beyond Monday night are still uncertain
with another ridge building in. There is some potential for embedded
shortwaves to push through the area, but if that`ll be enough to
overcome the subsidence remains to be seen. I was on the long term
forecast desk yesterday as well and between yesterday and
today...the rain chances have decreased for early next week (not
counting Monday night).

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A mix of VFR-MVFR-IFR ceilings across the region. These should all
lift into VFR territory by mid to late morning. SSE winds should
increase to 15-20kt during the day and settle back into the 7-12kt
range tonight. Look for a return of MVFR stratus tonight, but
forecast soundings indicate this might fill in a bit later than the
previous couple days...probably after 6z for most terminals. WIll
keep an eye on precip development (if any) near the CLL/UTS
terminals today, but am not planning to include the mention at this
time. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Generally moderate onshore flow will persist into the weekend. Winds
and seas will periodically increase enough for caution flags. One
of those periods happens to be now through early Friday morning
with 15-20 knot winds and seas around 5-6 ft in the offshore
waters. The persistent onshore flow will bring an elevated risk
of rip currents into early next week.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers.
The Trinity River at Liberty will remain in major flood stage until
further notice. The Trinity River at Riverside is forecast to
continue on a downward trend from moderate flood stage into minor
flood stage early Thursday morning. Last up for the Trinity River is
Moss Bluff which remains in moderate flood stage and is expected to
continue on its steady recession through the end of the week.

Along the Brazos River, there are three gauges currently in minor
flood stage: Richmond, Rosharon, and Sugar Land. Richmond and Sugar
Land have already reached their crests and are forecast to gradually
trend downward...and Richmond is forecast to drop out of minor flood
stage on Thursday morning. Rosharon on the other hand is still
rising and is forecast to crest just below moderate flood stage on
Thursday. As always, we will continue to monitor observations
and trends.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flood threat persists.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 77 93 77 / 20 0 30 30
Houston (IAH) 91 78 93 79 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 80 87 80 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste

[Cpv17]

I really dont see any sort of big heat ridge setup in the guidance anytime soon or even perhaps for the next few weeks, GFS continues to see a couple of cold fronts sliding through over the next few weeks! We shall see

I'll believe it when I see it. I feel like we are charging forward to another scorching, dry summer setup. I hope I am wrong.

Sure, we’ll have some hot and dry periods, but this summer should be much closer to average in terms of temperatures and precipitation. Possibly even above average for precip.