Lose the game, then poof!
Sprinklers are on full tonight.
June 2024
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5383
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Just as an aside, the Texas A&M men's swim coach retired, but still left, as it were. Now, the AFD
226
FXUS64 KHGX 270459
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
A bit more unsettled weather pattern to end the work week, with
subtle shortwave trough and associated slow MCS over northeast TX
and northwest LA this afternoon which models are pretty
consistent with dissipating this evening. However, HRRR and GFS
both support some new development along residual outflow overnight
near east- central TX which would have a south-southwest
propagation component into some of our eastern counties Thursday
morning. While this will dissipate through the day tomorrow,
there should be some persistent mid/high clouds in its wake. So
while the afternoon will once again be another hot one for late
June, not as confident on max heat indicies above 108f with these
lingering MCS affects. Will opt to hold off on a heat advisory for
now, however with late day sun we could still get advisory levels
once again for a few hours later in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
The primary concern in the extended period continues to surround the
potential for excessive heat, while we also continue to monitor for
the possibility of scattered thunderstorms to develop over the
course of the weekend and into the early part of next week. The
contributing synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged, with a
dominant midlevel ridge building to approximately 597-98 dam by the
end of the weekend. With 850mb temps warming to around 22 degC per
the most recent deterministic model runs, high temperatures will
approach the upper 90s for most of the area and even perhaps will
break into the triple digits for a few locations through Tuesday.
With dew points remaining situated in the mid to upper 70s, maximum
apparent temperatures look to approach 110 each day for much of the
area. This, combined with max WBGT values of 90-91 degF, will likely
require the issuance of additional heat advisories throughout much
of the period. With an array of outdoor events underway over the
course of the weekend, heat safety precautions will be paramount.
Taking preventative measures like staying hydrated and avoiding
strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day could very
well be the difference between a pleasant weekend and a heat-related
illness.
While heat stands out as the primary forecast concern, things may
become slightly complicated by the potential for daily isolated
thunderstorms. Despite the presence of the aforementioned ridge, our
positioning on its eastern peripheral will allow a few weak pockets
of shortwave energy to traverse the ridge, supplying enough PVA to
provide an impetus for afternoon convection. This, combined with
robust heating and the daily propagation of the sea/bay breeze, will
keep ~20-30% PoPs in the forecast with the greatest rainfall
potential coming on Sunday and Monday.
Another quick thing to note is the continued elevated low
temperatures (high 70s to low 80s) each night across the area; these
elevated lows can inhibit recovery from daytime heat stress and thus
pose a greater risk for heat-related illnesses in subsequent hot
days. As such, considering heat safety precautions will remain
key.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Generally low end VFR, with occasional MVFR in some spots, is
expected overnight and into the morning. We will need to watch
small disturbances approaching from the north that could try to
spark some shra/tsra activity. The threat appears to be low for
now. However, we did add VCSH to the TAF at GLS for 12 to 15 UTC.
We have not made any changes to the forecast for tomorrow, with
southwest winds becoming south to southeast by afternoon. Some of
the latest hi-res guidance suggest scattered shra/tsra activity
that could impact some of our terminals. We have opted to leave
out any TS/SH mention in the TAFs while we wait for more overnight
data.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Generally benign marine conditions are expected for the foreseeable
future as light to moderate onshore winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will
be a chance for thunderstorms each day, but storm coverage should
generally remain isolated. Conditions are likely to remain below
advisory thresholds for the full period, aside from any brief strong
wind gusts associated with developing storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 77 97 76 / 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 97 79 97 78 / 30 20 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 91 82 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Evans
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cady
226
FXUS64 KHGX 270459
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1159 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
A bit more unsettled weather pattern to end the work week, with
subtle shortwave trough and associated slow MCS over northeast TX
and northwest LA this afternoon which models are pretty
consistent with dissipating this evening. However, HRRR and GFS
both support some new development along residual outflow overnight
near east- central TX which would have a south-southwest
propagation component into some of our eastern counties Thursday
morning. While this will dissipate through the day tomorrow,
there should be some persistent mid/high clouds in its wake. So
while the afternoon will once again be another hot one for late
June, not as confident on max heat indicies above 108f with these
lingering MCS affects. Will opt to hold off on a heat advisory for
now, however with late day sun we could still get advisory levels
once again for a few hours later in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
The primary concern in the extended period continues to surround the
potential for excessive heat, while we also continue to monitor for
the possibility of scattered thunderstorms to develop over the
course of the weekend and into the early part of next week. The
contributing synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged, with a
dominant midlevel ridge building to approximately 597-98 dam by the
end of the weekend. With 850mb temps warming to around 22 degC per
the most recent deterministic model runs, high temperatures will
approach the upper 90s for most of the area and even perhaps will
break into the triple digits for a few locations through Tuesday.
With dew points remaining situated in the mid to upper 70s, maximum
apparent temperatures look to approach 110 each day for much of the
area. This, combined with max WBGT values of 90-91 degF, will likely
require the issuance of additional heat advisories throughout much
of the period. With an array of outdoor events underway over the
course of the weekend, heat safety precautions will be paramount.
Taking preventative measures like staying hydrated and avoiding
strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day could very
well be the difference between a pleasant weekend and a heat-related
illness.
While heat stands out as the primary forecast concern, things may
become slightly complicated by the potential for daily isolated
thunderstorms. Despite the presence of the aforementioned ridge, our
positioning on its eastern peripheral will allow a few weak pockets
of shortwave energy to traverse the ridge, supplying enough PVA to
provide an impetus for afternoon convection. This, combined with
robust heating and the daily propagation of the sea/bay breeze, will
keep ~20-30% PoPs in the forecast with the greatest rainfall
potential coming on Sunday and Monday.
Another quick thing to note is the continued elevated low
temperatures (high 70s to low 80s) each night across the area; these
elevated lows can inhibit recovery from daytime heat stress and thus
pose a greater risk for heat-related illnesses in subsequent hot
days. As such, considering heat safety precautions will remain
key.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Generally low end VFR, with occasional MVFR in some spots, is
expected overnight and into the morning. We will need to watch
small disturbances approaching from the north that could try to
spark some shra/tsra activity. The threat appears to be low for
now. However, we did add VCSH to the TAF at GLS for 12 to 15 UTC.
We have not made any changes to the forecast for tomorrow, with
southwest winds becoming south to southeast by afternoon. Some of
the latest hi-res guidance suggest scattered shra/tsra activity
that could impact some of our terminals. We have opted to leave
out any TS/SH mention in the TAFs while we wait for more overnight
data.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Generally benign marine conditions are expected for the foreseeable
future as light to moderate onshore winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail
through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will
be a chance for thunderstorms each day, but storm coverage should
generally remain isolated. Conditions are likely to remain below
advisory thresholds for the full period, aside from any brief strong
wind gusts associated with developing storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 77 97 76 / 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 97 79 97 78 / 30 20 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 91 82 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Evans
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cady
I'll need to look at the full year-to-date later. But I looked up monthly totals for IAH airport, and was surprised to see that it cashed in quite a bit this June so far — monthly totals as of now are 7.80 inches.
In contrast, Hobby is just over 3 inches, whereas League City (NWS HGX site) is 4.64 inches. Both stations should typically be higher than IAH.
Both Beaumont and Port Arthur are in the ~3.60 inch range, even though both stations, again, should be higher than IAH. Even Lake Charles has 6.20 inches, again less than IAH.
However, IAH still has the lowest rain frequencies this month of all the listed sites. So the rainfall there appears to have been simply good hits from some of the storm systems that occurred the beginning of the month.
One thing that has been out of control this year, though, has been the dewpoints. I've been looking at data for the Sugar Land area, the place is consistently seeing dews near/at 80°F, which combines with heat to push heat indexes near/at (or even above) 110°F — even the surrounding Houston sites like IAH/HOU have not been quite as consistently high.
Similarly, Navasota is also standing out for relatively high dewpoints + resultant heat indexes. Been noticing that site running high since May.
Not sure if just siting/censor issues, or some other factor that is causing these stand outs.
Similarly, Navasota is also standing out for relatively high dewpoints + resultant heat indexes. Been noticing that site running high since May.
Not sure if just siting/censor issues, or some other factor that is causing these stand outs.
I don't think its a sensor issue. My dewpoint was hovering around 79-80 all afternoon peaking at 80.5 with a temp of 99.5 and feels like 117.4. It felt horrible outside. Even now my station shows a feels like of 107.7 with a 78 dewpoint.user:null wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 11:06 am One thing that has been out of control this year, though, has been the dewpoints. I've been looking at data for the Sugar Land area, the place is consistently seeing dews near/at 80°F, which combines with heat to push heat indexes near/at (or even above) 110°F — even the surrounding Houston sites like IAH/HOU have not been quite as consistently high.
Similarly, Navasota is also standing out for relatively high dewpoints + resultant heat indexes. Been noticing that site running high since May.
Not sure if just siting/censor issues, or some other factor that is causing these stand outs.
I need gills to walk around outside right now. It's brutal.
Doesn't help certainly, but just walking between buildings at work causes me to sweat buckets. Its 93 with a dewpoint of 81 where I'm at.
I know the feeling. You will start sweating just by going outside to get the mail. It sucks, I agree. I think freezing weather sucks even worse though. I can handle the heat better than the cold.
Last week, I made the comment in this very forum that I thought this Summer was pleasant compared to last. I take that comment back and I apologize to everyone for making it. I was not in the right frame of mind. Lol
It’s gonna get even hotter the next few days. I try to wait till the evening if I have anything to do outside.
A sneaky shower actually penetrated the AggieDome, which is in no doubt shock due to the Schloss Betrayal.
I mean it is coming down here at A&M. I just checked in at home and they are getting some rain. It's 2-3 inch/hour stuff out there.
https://youtu.be/jseTa7HUIDU?si=D492lvqQQroW5wLu
Dang - I ran the sprinklers last night - that must have clinched it.
I mean it is coming down here at A&M. I just checked in at home and they are getting some rain. It's 2-3 inch/hour stuff out there.
https://youtu.be/jseTa7HUIDU?si=D492lvqQQroW5wLu
Dang - I ran the sprinklers last night - that must have clinched it.
1.59+ inches at A&M. 0.59 inches at home. We might make it to Monday before watering again. Looks like a brutal weekend and July 4th week to come.
And nothing once again. Gonna be dragging the hose all weekend.