Hurricane Beryl

[don]

The cone now stretches to Freeport.

023630_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png (93.27 KiB) Viewed 2795 times

[Stormlover2020]

Icon cat 4 galv

[Stratton20]

The ICON isnt letting go, interesting

[DoctorMu]

Look at all the crap on the trailing side. Shear is doing something alright

Mitosis

Hahaha. Telomeres. Thanks for that biochem reminder. Triggered. Lol

Beryl seems to have extra telomerase.

[DoctorMu]

Beryl is curvaceous.

[Rip76]

Give us all the rains.....

[sambucol]

Icon cat 4 galv

Just curious. When does it have Beryl there?

[Goomba]

Icon cat 4 galv

Just curious. When does it have Beryl there?

[Ptarmigan]

Icon cat 4 galv

If that materialized......................

Hopefully, that is not the case. It shows intensity forecast has a long way to go.

[Stratton20]

GFS and CMC are way weaker, and the uncertainty continues lol

[sambucol]

I hope it doesn’t materialize, either. What is the ICON picking up on, if anything, to cause it to show a cat 4 into Galveston?

[Stratton20]

Honestly its a real wild card what happens in the gulf with beryl, the ICON probably is too strong, but the GFS and CMC are also likely too weak, I could see a range from a strong TS- Cat 2, uncertainty is still there

Given how guidance has consistently whiffed on beryl, im am skeptical

[Rip76]

It's a super wild card.

[biggerbyte]

Beryl is looking pretty beaten down tonight. It's only going to hit more shear and land as it tries to traverse to the gulf


The godzilla of the tropics. What a difference.

[Rip76]

Beryl is looking pretty beaten down tonight. It's only going to heat more shear and land as it tries to traverse to the gulf


The godzilla of the tropics. What a difference.

Yep.
It's going through a pretty rough time right now.

[Stratton20]

I would take a path like the GFS, at least the trough still has some influence on it, Allowing for heavy rain to be spread in land

[DoctorMu]

Beryl is fighting back, though. The mountains took a lot more out of her than the shear.

[Stratton20]

HMON shifted north into brownsville fwiw

[Pas_Bon]

Icon cat 4 galv

Just curious. When does it have Beryl there?

Late Sunday/Monday

It’s counting on the trough dipping down and assisting her in edging poleward

JMA (Japanese model) has been showing the same, FWIW. While not traditionally thought of as go-to models, they are still worth lending credence to, especially given their persistence. JMA has been stuck on this for nearly 72hrs

It’s enough to leave me unsettled.

[Stratton20]

06z Icon still sticking with an upper Texas coast hit