Hurricane Beryl

[DoctorMu]

The cone is much larger now for potential landfalls, up to San Luis pass

Yep. That's NHC speak for "we still don't know where the hell it's going."

[vci_guy2003]

It would be crazy to see it go on the right side of this cone lol

[DoctorMu]

So…..if Beryl makes landfall in S TX, will we get rain in League City? Please say yes.

Everyone will be seeing rain regardless of where Beryl makes landfall.Due to the frontal boundary draped over the state interacting with moisture from Beryl and 96L. How much rain is yet to be determined though.

I think Galveston and points east are probably safe from getting a DIRECT hit, doesn't mean there wont be impacts though.And possibly significant impacts depending on the track of Beryl once the storm moves inland.

This is correct and the scenario as been a possibility for days. The gap in the ridges, trough, and FROPA will be enticing for Beryl. The sestern half of the area as KHOU points out could see up to 4-6 inches of welcome rain. Beryl could be a good friend.

[DoctorMu]

IMG_2182.jpeg



Yes! All of SETX will.

That is Christmas in July for me!

Please make this happen.

[Stratton20]

Stalled front + beryl moving into the texas coast as a hurricane probably , that just screams flooding problems to me

[DoctorMu]

The trend is our friend:

[Stratton20]

ICON sub 960 mb hurricane right into rockport and making a due north movement inland

[djmike]

NHC is determined not to move landfall N any at all! I have a feeling Beryl will catch many off guard along the southern coastal bend! MY OPINION, I do feel Houston/Beaumont and extreme SETX are safe from landfall, but looks like with the front being in place and Beryls moisture, we all will see decent rains.

[Stratton20]

djmike thay track will likely be adjusted more north over time, and the cone is inching ever closer to galveston, could be a very very close call

[brazoriatx]

I'm sure once beryl enters the gulf they will adjust the track accordingly

[djmike]

Plus NHC track is still on the southern end of the consensus. Did notice curvature in the cone though and much larger. Getting close to western suburbs of Houston!

[Stratton20]

Probably best if we use the hurricane models at this range , the globals might be good for rain, but intensity wise id leave that to the hurricane models

[Cpv17]

Travis Herzog just said what I’ve been saying all along. He’s expecting this to landfall in TX instead of MX.

[brazoriatx]

Travis Herzog just said what I’ve been saying all along. He’s expecting this to landfall in TX instead of MX.

Well technically Brownsville is mexico lol just joking

[Andrew]

The cone is much larger now for potential landfalls, up to San Luis pass

I thought the cone was based on stats of 5 years of data and not on track confidence?

It is, the cone does not change size. Current error rates are listed at the link below

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

[Dls2010r]

Sorry

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS is in, while I dont see a stall, i dont like how some of the members are a little bit more slower to clear beryl out of texas, something to watch

[tireman4]

The 8 pm..

[tireman4]

Arrival times of tropical storm force winds

[brazoriatx]

The 8 pm..

Same old story