Hurricane Beryl

[Cpv17]

Euro Jamaica beach

Next run will have it on High Island at this rate.

[Rip76]

Then Tx/La border, and more heat.

[Stormlover2020]

Kudos to icon very impressive

[djmike]

Man if these eastward shifts keep continuing in the models, we all might be on the clean side of the storm! We still have two full days before landfall!

Crazy to see that just two days ago we were believing mid/upper Mexico for a landfall. Now we are looking at mid/upper Texas! Thats a huge difference over two days.

Oh I dont even look a FB during times like these. Fear is what people like to post. Also more than half is old data tgat folks click share on. Ive always had family text and call for weather updates. Ive taught them to not believe everything on FB. They know when they start getting calls or texts from me, then its time to start taking action or getting ready. Today was my first texts out to FF since I am from Houston, family in Houston and Beaumont area.

[DoctorMu]

I was briefly scanning through TWC and Fox Weather. Shockingly, there was no Ice Truckers or National Parks programming! Online options and resources are so rich.

But Fox had a flawed but illustrative graphic with the "dead giveaway" set up that Jason and I noticed days ago. One of the big concerns is that the trough is early and stickier slowing movement of Beryl, ramping up Excessive rain and flooding risks. CLL could see now 3-12 inches of rain. We can handle it, but classes *could* have to be cancelled on Wednesday.

This summer, given the rapidly transition away from El Nino the "Death Ridge" hasn't robustly established itself. Thus we have a scenario of upper level guidance that is more like our mid-August to early October window for hurricanes smashing the western Gulf.

The Bermuda high/ridge is to our east and the Four Corners ridge to our west, funneling Beryl into MX, TX, LA. As added enticement we have a trough and FROPA. Like a laser light to a cat, the gap and trought will reel Beryl in, but will also slow Beryl's movement once the trap is set.

note - I think the main jet stream is actually well north of the trough in the upper Midwest, but good enough to rep. steering currents as the trough and FROPA dig further into the gap. Come to Papa.

[Stratton20]

djmike i wouldnt count on that, a landfall right over galveston/ houston would be really bad for those cities and points east

[Cpv17]

Love the latest HWRF run. Tracks right into Port O’Connor and then into Port Lavaca.

[Pas_Bon]

Freeport. Cat 4 135-145 mph. Putting all my chips in

I hope you are way wrong on strength and location. I'm trying to sell my house not rebuild it first!

Me right now……

[DoctorMu]

Love the latest HWRF run. Tracks right into Port O’Connor and then into Port Lavaca.

Curvature looks legit. The Parent HWRF is probably too far west.

It's amazing - there is 30X more LA and MX now in the cone.

[Cpv17]

Even Herzog said it wouldn’t surprise him if it shifts all the way to the TX/LA border.

[don]

GRwvQLvacAEPnrX.png (161.6 KiB) Viewed 3525 times

GRwvReMXIAAqlMN.png (190.38 KiB) Viewed 3525 times

[DoctorMu]

Could be. Seems like a general consensus from Rockport to Sergeant landfall, except ICON, then curving NE.

[DoctorMu]

GRwvQLvacAEPnrX.pngGRwvReMXIAAqlMN.png

Intense dirty side winds + slowly moving, heavy rain. Prepare fences, mitigate potential tree damage to property.

[captainbarbossa19]

Could be. Seems like a general consensus from Rockport to Sergeant landfall, except ICON, then curving NE.

The Euro now has landfall around Freeport.

[brazoriatx]

If it's a cat 1 at landfall how many people on here are actually going to leave? I plan on staying of it's a ts or a cat 1 maybe a 2..anything at a 3 or above then I would probably leave

[Rip76]

Taking an Astros break for a bit.
Beryl is looking sad right now.

[Pas_Bon]

It’s time to get preparations moving to fruition.
I just got 40 gallons of gasoline. Lines weren’t bad.

[jabcwb2]

Can you tell yet what the radius of Beryl will be at landfall, wherever that is going to be?

[djmike]

I don’t evacuate till at least a Cat 3 or more.

[Cromagnum]

Even Herzog said it wouldn’t surprise him if it shifts all the way to the TX/LA border.

Travis is a doomsday guy. I never listen to him for anything.