Hurricane Beryl

[Tx2005]

Lots of folks texting me if we don’t need to worry anymore and what I think now.

My reply out:

About the same. I'm thinking Matagorda-Sargent. Cat 2. May make a last minute run at a major still. Depends on how quickly Beryl can rebuild its core.

What are your thoughts on the track if Beryl becomes a major again? Does that change things?

[Cromagnum]

Dropsonde seeing 993 mb now. Trying to get the engine to turn over.

[Pas_Bon]

Lots of folks texting me if we don’t need to worry anymore and what I think now.

My reply out:

About the same. I'm thinking Matagorda-Sargent. Cat 2. May make a last minute run at a major still. Depends on how quickly Beryl can rebuild its core.

What are your thoughts on the track if Beryl becomes a major again? Does that change things?

I think it would if she had more space to work with. She will ultimately probably come in a bit east of forecast track, but she is going to start running out of time

[biggerbyte]

Yes, these things can and do regenerate, depending on conditions, of course. I'm not suggesting that's not the case. Beryl has been through a loop of changes. However, now that is in the gulf we are facing timing issues. The shape that it is in right now, coupled with how much more time will be spent in the boxing ring. Then once conditions improve, how much time to landfall.. I leave the door open to more than one outcome.

We will see. I'll put the fork on hold. LOL

[tireman4]

Beryl

[tireman4]

Beryl

[Ptarmigan]

Humberto 2007 is a prime example of how fast things can change in 24 hours if conditions are ripe thus we need to watch Beryl closely today and tomorrow:

The intensification rate in Humberto was one of the highest that has ever been observed for an initially weak tropical cyclone. It is estimated that the cyclone strengthened from a 30 mph low into an 90 mph hurricane within 24 hours. This rapid increase in intensity is rare, and only three others storms (Celia/1970, Arlene and Flora/1963) have intensified more in 24 hours from below tropical storm strength. Humberto had a peak wind of 90 mph and a minimun central pressure of 985 mb when it made landfall around 2:00 AM CDT just east of High Island, TX.

Hurricane Flora is one of the deadliest and wettest hurricanes. It claimed nearly 7,200 lives and dumped over 100 inches of rain, probably over 120 inches of rain. Humberto literally came out of nowhere. It made landfall a year exactly before Hurricane Ike landfall in 2008.

[djmike]

Anyone think we will see more shifts east OR west or are we pretty much locked in?

[DoctorMu]

Lots of folks texting me if we don’t need to worry anymore and what I think now.

My reply out:

About the same. I'm thinking Matagorda-Sargent. Cat 2. May make a last minute run at a major still. Depends on how quickly Beryl can rebuild its core.

Really - nothing has changed since yesterday. Port Lavaca was in the middle of the models. Beryl was expected to have a rough go for 24 hours and then restrengthening in a less hostile environment during the weekend. Houston will be on the dirty side with wind, rain, potential for tornadoes. There is potential for local flooding. Some storm surge, including on Galveston Island.

Cat 2 is the mostly likely strength at landfall, although don't be surprised if Beryl manages a CAT3.

[Cromagnum]

Ride the snake.

[Ptarmigan]

Lots of folks texting me if we don’t need to worry anymore and what I think now.

My reply out:

About the same. I'm thinking Matagorda-Sargent. Cat 2. May make a last minute run at a major still. Depends on how quickly Beryl can rebuild its core.

Really - nothing has changed since yesterday. Port Lavaca was in the middle of the models. Beryl was expected to have a rough go for 24 hours and then restrengthening in a less hostile environment during the weekend. Houston will be on the dirty side with wind, rain, potential for tornadoes. There is potential for local flooding. Some storm surge, including on Galveston Island.

Cat 2 is the mostly likely strength at landfall, although don't be surprised if Beryl manages a CAT3.

I am thinking Category 1 or 2. Not ruling out Category 3 yet.

[Scott747]

If this pulse holds together and it's already turning then the chance rises it moves further up the coast like the ICON.

Most of the other models delays this much of a nw turn until later tonight or tomorrow.

[DoctorMu]

Lots of folks texting me if we don’t need to worry anymore and what I think now.

My reply out:

About the same. I'm thinking Matagorda-Sargent. Cat 2. May make a last minute run at a major still. Depends on how quickly Beryl can rebuild its core.

Really - nothing has changed since yesterday. Port Lavaca was in the middle of the models. Beryl was expected to have a rough go for 24 hours and then restrengthening in a less hostile environment during the weekend. Houston will be on the dirty side with wind, rain, potential for tornadoes. There is potential for local flooding. Some storm surge, including on Galveston Island.

Cat 2 is the mostly likely strength at landfall, although don't be surprised if Beryl manages a CAT3.

I am thinking Category 1 or 2. Not ruling out Category 3 yet.

Probably so, but we've learned not to sleep on Beryl. She's getting her act together, winning the battle now against mid-level dry airl



https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

That forward band is going to arrive early in the Houston area ahead of Beryl. Get prepared for some heavy rain, wind. Port Lavaca still looks reasonable for landfall, even with strengthening.

[Scott747]

12z GFS is coming in further up the coast compared to the 6z.

[DoctorMu]

I think the die is mostly cast on landfall. The trough has arrived as srain indicated. The gap is set. The bigger question in my mind is "how much time does Beryl get to strengthen before coming ashore?"

[sambucol]

What kind of winds in the Houston area on the coast. We are in Baytown on the Chambers County line.

[Cpv17]

What kind of winds in the Houston area on the coast. We are in Baytown on the Chambers County line.

I think since Beryl is such a small storm that winds won’t be much of an issue for your area.

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS is coming in further up the coast compared to the 6z.

Moving closer to Port Lavaca. I think we'll continue to see more consensus and agreement in the models. The setup and initial conditions are known.

So...how much time does Beryl get: CAT1, CAT2 or less likely but possible CAT3?

[DoctorMu]

What kind of winds in the Houston area on the coast. We are in Baytown on the Chambers County line.

I think since Beryl is such a small storm that winds won’t be much of an issue for your area.

Yep - mostly a rain event. There will be gale force winds. Potential for lower end twisters though.

[Cromagnum]

Just shared by Jeff Lindner.