Hurricane Beryl

[tireman4]

Anyone check on 57 to make sure he is ok?

He and Tireman are good friends so if anyone would know it would be him.

As far as I know he is fine. Crazy busy as you can expect. He works mostly from home, but I sm sure he is on calls with clients. South Texas Storms works with him and Srain and he go back further than he and I do.

[djmike]

It's ne of the forecast track. Some it is that it's not fully stacked but already at 23.6 with 23.7 being the point at 10 tonight.

No recon for a bit so a little hazy how meaningful this is.

Someone else mentioned it still is on the far right of models. Could mean something but not many are talking about it like they were yesterday.

[TheSavageDad]

I’m new here.. so hi guys 15 mins ago noaa just put us under 3-4 flash flood threat.. things must still be trending more east ward ?

[brazoriatx]

Where did all these showers come from?

[brazoriatx]

Is she suppose to make that sharp left turn?

[tireman4]

Where did all these showers come from?

The showers were expected. They are the result of a diffused front over our area and the sea breeze. High PWATs and instability will also contribute to them as well

[don]

Moderate risk for flash flooding issued along and west of I-45 by the WPC.Flood watch also issued by HGX.

wpc_excesseive_rainfall_day3.us_sc.png

(302.14 KiB) Downloaded 4064 times

wp3c_qpf_168h_p.us_sc.png

(484.17 KiB) Downloaded 4064 times

hgxflood.png (46.5 KiB) Viewed 4155 times

[TexasBreeze]

There is already a flood watch in effect for the area due to Beryl.

[don]

12Z HWRF and HAFS-A radar simulation. Don't take these verbatim,but they can provide hints of the future structure of Beryl.

hwrf_2024-07-06-12Z_048_31.403_260.712_24.818_266.824_Simulated_Reflectivity_Reflectivity_highways_storm03.png (86.6 KiB) Viewed 4168 times

hafsa_2024-07-06-12Z_048_31.568_262.035_26.602_266.686_Simulated_Reflectivity_Reflectivity_highways_storm03.png (97.78 KiB) Viewed 4168 times

[DoctorMu]

Moderate risk for flash flooding issued along and west of I-45 by the WPC.



wpc_excesseive_rainfall_day3.us_sc.pngwp3c_qpf_168h_p.us_sc.png

Yep. Could be some local flooding here in CLL. Some 40-50 mph gust potentially. I shored up one side of the fence. Furniture and loose items will be addressed tomorrow.

[rselby0654]

The further east Beryl goes the stronger it will be when it makes landfall.

[tireman4]

The next two Recon flights will be after 3 pm CDT

[txbear]

What are yalls thoughts on wind strength on the west side of the viewing area with general consensus landfall around, say Sargent?

Wind field size will be an open question as well as how quickly it degrades once inland.

[Pas_Bon]

Hey, y’all. I don’t want to be that person, but why is she quite a bit east of where she should be right now?

[Scott747]

Keep an eye on the next run of the HAFS models. They have done will with this psuedo evolution the last 24 hours. If they begin to show more alignment with the center then odds increase up the coast.

GFS still shows the center elongated with it 'wobbling' more wnw to nw early on.

[don]

18Z HRRR Category 1 landfall at San Antonio Bay.

Screenushot 2024-07-06 a[...].png (719.9 KiB) Viewed 3944 times

Screensthot 2024-07-06 a[...].png (1.12 MiB) Viewed 3944 times

Scfreenshot 2024-07-06 a[...].png (1.39 MiB) Viewed 3944 times

[mcheer23]

18z HRRR just ran...

Shows a nasty band setting up right along I-45 on Monday.
Wind gusts in our western counties near 70 mph

[Scott747]

Fwiw the 12z HAFS models still weren't showing any true alignment for another 24 hrs.

Regardless it's still tracking to the NE of the track. However this could a function of the alignment and 'wobbling' around. We won't know for sure for another few hours till we get a recon fix.

[Stratton20]

18z HRRR has a prolific rain band setting up shop somewhere over se texas, 10-15 inch max bullseye

[Stormlover2020]

Euro shift 55 miles north