Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 19, 2024 6:11 pm
GFS has a pretty wet pattern becoming established next week and beyond that, bring it! Daily chances for some needed rain, persistent easterly flow on the GFS, lets just hope that doesn’t involve a tropical system
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024
Imagine wrapping yourself up in a hot wet towel and sitting in a
sauna. That`s basically sums up how the short-term weather will
feel. In the most sarcastic tone ever, the mid-upper level ridge is
the gift that keeps on giving.... Thanks to this dominant feature,
southwesterly winds advecting hot air, and increasing dew points, it
will continue to feel like those of us in Southeast Texas are
trudging through soup. There is *some* hope in the long-term,
however. At the very least, we may be able to do away with the Heat
Advisories/Excessive Heat Warnings for most of the area during the
latter half of the week. I will let my colleague share more on that
in the long-term...just needed to provide a glimmer of hope.
Anyways...back to the short-term. Models are showing 1000-500 mb
thicknesses increasing, and the consequence of that is certainly
represented in the temperature forecast. Temperatures today and
Wednesday will feature triple digits for the majority of Southeast
Texas. Some locations may reach to 105F (No...that is not the
"feels like" temperature...that`s the ACTUAL forecasted
temperature).
That being said, the Heat Advisory will continue for the entire area
through 10 AM this morning. From 10 AM this morning through
Wednesday evening, the Heat Advisory will be upgraded to an
Excessive Heat Warning for most of the area. The Piney Woods (most
of it at least) will remain under a Heat Advisory through the entire
period.
Afternoon heat indices could be in excess of 112F in areas within
the Excessive Heat Warning. For areas in the Advisory, values could
be in excess of 108F.
I have opted to continue both the Excessive Heat Warning and the
Heat Advisory through the nighttime hours. There will not be much
time to recover from the significant daytime heating before the next
round of heat on Wednesday (to put it into perspective, it is 3:30a
at the time of this writing and several ASOS sites are still showing
HI values in the upper 80s to 90s).
These are DANGEROUS Heat Conditions, please make the proper
adjustments to keep yourself, loved ones, and pets safe from the
heat. If you plan to spend time or work outdoors, wear lightweight
and loose fitting clothing, limit strenuous activities to early
morning or evening, stay out of the sun, and drink plenty of fluids.
NEVER leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. Remember, the
ground will be too hot for your pets` paws during the daytime.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024
The worst of the heat will be behind us as we move into Thursday
with continued decreasing temperatures through the rest of the long
term (but don`t be fooled by "cooling" as it will continue to be hot
- just won`t be Excessive Heat Warning hot). The strong upper level
ridge that has been over Texas will shift to the west through the
weekend allowing for height falls and increasing moisture. There
will be a slight chance of coastal showers on Friday, but rain
chances increase as we move into the weekend as a weak upper level
low will be slowing retrograding around the east side of the high
across the Gulf. Scattered showers and storms will be possible over
the weekend and into next week.
Triple digit high temperatures will still be possible on Thursday
west of I-45, then mid to upper 90s through the weekend with low 90s
possible on Monday thanks to the increased cloud cover/rainfall
potential. Heat Advisory will still be possible on Thursday as heat
indices continue to be in the 105-110 degree range. The chance of
the Advisory continuing beyond Thursday is low as heat indicies may
"only" get into the 100-105 degree range. Overnight lows will
continue to be unseasonably warm with inland areas staying in the
mid to upper 70s and low 80s along the immediate coast.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024
Persistent forecast continues with VFR prevailing. Winds will
generally be light and variable, strengthening slightly through
the day. While the chances are low, isolated showers and
thunderstorms may occur along the sea and bay breeze.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024
Light winds and low winds will prevail through the weekend. There
will be a chance of showers or storms beginning as early as Friday
and continuing into the start of next week.
The euro tries to “ strengthen “ our mid level disturbance thats moves in from the eastern gulf, right at landfall, maybe a weak tropical low/ very weak depression
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 1:37 pm
The euro tries to “ strengthen “ our mid level disturbance thats moves in from the eastern gulf, right at landfall, maybe a weak tropical low/ very weak depression
That sounds good. At least we would get a good soaking of rain.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 1:37 pm
The euro tries to “ strengthen “ our mid level disturbance thats moves in from the eastern gulf, right at landfall, maybe a weak tropical low/ very weak depression
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 1:37 pm
The euro tries to “ strengthen “ our mid level disturbance thats moves in from the eastern gulf, right at landfall, maybe a weak tropical low/ very weak depression
Yes, please. Please do.
We need it.
Yes - my lawn, trees are frying.
Temp: 103.3°
DP: 74°
HI: 117°F
I've closed all the blinds to give the A/C a break.
Starting to get bad here. The lawns are looking really brown now and the shrubs and trees are showing heat stress. Saw a live oak that had been planted in the spring but it wasn’t watered this month and as of today it’s torched. I hate these annual summer droughts. So done with Texas summers. Just a few more years…then Florida for good.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 20, 2024 11:56 pm
NAO goes strongly negative at the ens of August, starting to see signs of a big front around the beginning of september
Well I’m supposed to start my new job on Monday, but now I have an interview tomorrow for an even better opportunity. Guess that’s what happens when you apply to 40 different jobs in a short period of time lol
Starting to get bad here. The lawns are looking really brown now and the shrubs and trees are showing heat stress. Saw a live oak that had been planted in the spring but it wasn’t watered this month and as of today it’s torched. I hate these annual summer droughts. So done with Texas summers. Just a few more years…then Florida for good.
I have to take out the large bucket today and water the trees with vitamins, nitrogen.
