Tropical Storm Francine

[Pas_Bon]

Alright, y’all, I think this system warrants its own thread at this point - if only for the potential for significant flooding in waterlogged areas.

[Cpv17]

Alright, y’all, I think this system warrants its own thread at this point - if only for the potential for significant flooding in waterlogged areas.

Looks to possibly be a sharp gradient somewhere across southeast TX. At least that’s how it looks right now. Better odds for rain along the coast and east of 45.

[tireman4]

We now have Invest 91L. Wxman57 thinks it lands as a 50kt Tropical Storm at the Texas/Louisiana border Wednesday.

[davidiowx]

This should be 91L right?

[davidiowx]

We now have Invest 90L. Wxman57 thinks it lands as a 50kt Tropical Storm at the Texas/Louisiana border Wednesday.

That would keep most of our area on the drier side.

[tireman4]

Yep, 91L. Oops. Mcheer needs to fix it

[brazoriatx]

We now have Invest 91L. Wxman57 thinks it lands as a 50kt Tropical Storm at the Texas/Louisiana border Wednesday.

Lol right...after his beryl screw up I'm done listening to him

[Cpv17]

We now have Invest 91L. Wxman57 thinks it lands as a 50kt Tropical Storm at the Texas/Louisiana border Wednesday.

Yawn. Another rain event for LA.

[mcheer23]

GFS and CMC with stronger runs 12z. Should be interesting to see what Euro shows.

[don]

12Z Globals

Screenshot 2024-09-07 at 13-35-22 Models GDPS — Pivotal Weather.png (760.27 KiB) Viewed 36677 times

Screenshot 2024-09-07 at 13-35-09 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png (704.08 KiB) Viewed 36677 times

Screenshot 2024-09-07 at 13-34-57 Models ECMWF — Pivotal Weather.png (835.25 KiB) Viewed 36677 times

[don]

Liking these model runs so far hopefully they stay east, im leaning towards a landfall around Lake Charles and maybe as far east as Lafayette. The stronger the storm gets the more east it will go.

91L_tracks_latest.png (54.36 KiB) Viewed 36587 times

[Cpv17]

Liking these model runs so far hopefully they stay east, im leaning towards a landfall around Lake Charles and maybe as far east as Lafayette. The stronger the storm gets the more east it will go.

91L_tracks_latest.png

Yep. Not concerned about it here. Looks to pretty much be a nonevent. Maybe some high tides and coastal flooding.

[Stratton20]

im thinking a landfall just west of galveston island, im seeing maybe a moderate 50-60 MPH TS, hurricane seeks unlikely given high shear over the north gulf, just need it close enough to give some good rainfall

[user:null]

Any westward trends would be best. I'm tired of these storms going east.

[tireman4]

Models

[Kludge]

We now have Invest 91L. Wxman57 thinks it lands as a 50kt Tropical Storm at the Texas/Louisiana border Wednesday.

Lol right...after his beryl screw up I'm done listening to him

When he says it's going elsewhere I start testing the generator and boarding up windows.

[Andrew]

Chances remain low that significant impacts will be felt inland across the immediate Houston area. Fortunately, upper-level steering paired with the layout of the Texas Coastline will make it nearly impossible for an organized system to make landfall in this area. At this point I think east of the Texas/LA border is looking more and more likely. Main impacts across SE Texas will likely be beach erosion along the coast (minor storm surge also could be possible) and some heavy rain with those along the coast seeing the highest chances.

[Stratton20]

I was really hoping we could get some rain from this, obviously we dont need or want any sort of major impact, but that really will just suck if we cant get a few inches from this system

[Cpv17]

I was really hoping we could get some rain from this, obviously we dont need or want any sort of major impact, but that really will just suck if we cant get a few inches from this system

I’m bummed out about it too, but thankfully we don’t need any rain at my house. I’m just bummed out cuz it looks like a boring weather pattern for the foreseeable future.

[Goomba]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Recent satellite wind data indicate a broad area of low pressure is
located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico while
interacting with a frontal boundary. This system is forecast to
drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of days, and
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of
Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week. Interests along
the western Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.