June 2025
Drive safely.
Hailing like crazy in the Woodlands.
My truck and roof will be trashed.
Pretty potent cell up in The Woodlands.
Whew, that was a close call. There was one rogue pretty large, about golfball-size chunk of ice on the pool deck but that was the only one I saw. I feel bad for the folks a little west of here, looked pretty brutal.
It weakened pretty quickly once it crossed over 45.
Just took this on my evening walk of the storm towards Columbus.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5419
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- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 amazing photo!
I know right! That was one tall thunderstorm.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
166
FXUS64 KHGX 101134
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
We now find ourselves in a still hot, but more seasonably hot
pattern in Southeast Texas. The tradeoff for that is daily
potential for thunderstorms. And while most of these storms will
be more typical summer storms, the strongest storms of the day
will have at least some potential for producing damaging winds,
hail, and/or locally excessive rain. A few things at the top of
mind for the rest of this week:
- At least a portion of the area will daily be in a marginal risk
area for severe weather (threat level 1 of 5) and for excessive
rain (threat level 1 of 4). While most of each day`s storms will
be manageable, you`ll want to be able to receive any weather
alerts should you come across one of the strongest storms of the
day.
- Wednesday does stand out slightly from the rest of the week for
the potential to see localized flooding issues from heavy rain.
On this day, we have a slight risk (threat level 2 of 4) for
excessive rain.
- Beyond the shower and storm potential, temperatures should
become more seasonable, particularly for afternoon highs.
Overnight lows do look to remain modestly elevated over
seasonal averages for the next several nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
At a high level, a look at tonight`s water vapor satellite imagery
kinda gives us a real good look at where we came from yesterday
and where we have to go from here. We`ve got a deep trough
dominating the eastern half of the US, centered over the Great
Lakes. We find ourselves on the back side of this trough, with the
environment that led to yesterday`s severe potential off to our
east (that thankfully had the ingredients come together not quite
as needed to fully materialize the threat). Looking west and
upstream in the flow, we see another big (but now sub-severe)
mesoscale convective system way out in West Texas. And...yes...the
remains of this complex is likely to play a significant role in
today`s storm potential. But looking back behind that, we can see
at least two more shortwave troughs riding around the edge of the
ridge building over the Western US. As we see these shortwaves
line up, it become immediately obvious that we`ll continue to see
round after round of storm potential as these troughs move through
the broader upper air pattern.
So...what about those rounds? Well...I wish I had something I
could say with strong confidence beyond that we`ll see storms
develop as these upper troughs move through, with a break of fair
weather between them. Specific timing and most impacted locations
are going to be influenced pretty severely by mesoscale factors
and we`ll almost have to take things as they come. Today, after a
smattering of isolated, light morning showers fade off, we`re
going to look more towards what comes of the remnants of the West
Texas MCS. As this moves through the area, that will be the clear
focus for afternoon storm development. It seems like the bulk of
the guidance brings this across the northern part of the area -
perhaps scraping along the northern edge of the Houston metro but
mainly focusing north of the metro. And, in general, my forecast
reflects this as the complex is already sub-severe and should
display less deviant motion influenced by its own internal
mechanics. However, I make sure to keep some 30-40 percent PoPs
farther south, as it`s still possible that this line deviates more
south than the mid-level flow would suggest, and moves across the
area more centered over I-10. This scenario is explicitly shown in
some of the evening CAM guidance and it`s prudent to at least
hedge to this a bit right now. That said, my expectation would be
that this a scenario that plays out with a stronger MCS able to
exert more deviant motion from the environmental flow, hence my
higher PoPs up north.
For Wednesday, I`m looking at the next shortwave trough up the
stream. This one is strong enough that it actually gets a
significant chunk into the building ridge out west in objective
analysis. And look, I trust the models on this, I really do. But
the thing that really makes me perk up on this shortwave trough is
that the jet streak around the base of this shortwave trough is
very plainly obvious in the water vapor imagery. It`s a feature
that grabs my attention immediately after the West Texas MCS. By
the time it gets here, it will certainly be able to produce some
solid storms. Though precipitable water comes in just under the
90th percentile, it is still progged to be around 1.75 inches.
That should still be good for some solid storms, and assuming we
got some locations to rack up some decent rain totals from
yesterday and today, they will be more vulnerable to high rain
rate storms causing localized flooding issues. So, if you`re a
spot that got a good storm yesterday or today, and especially if
you see that both days, Wednesday could be a day of concern.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Multiple rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are on tap through the week and into the weekend. A closed low
developing over the Southern plains will result in SW flow aloft,
and will send several vorticity maximums (areas of enhanced
upward motion) through the region. Closer to the surface, the
frontal boundary that led to storms this afternoon will meander
over the area and interact with the warm humid airmass that is in
place (courtesy of persistent southerly/onshore flow). A stronger
upper-level wave is expected to move through SE Texas later in the
week, resulting in scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these storms have the potential to become
strong and produce locally heavy downpours, strong winds, and
small hail.
Highs through the week will generally be in the low 90s through
the weekend. Deviations from the forecasted temperature each day
will depend largely on what locations receive rain or any outflow
boundaries that manage to bring in cooler air.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Quite high confidence in stormy pattern through the TAF period,
much less confidence in the exact specifics. Main issue looks to
be from line currently making its way from West Texas towards Hill
Country this morning. Line has been slow and timing difficult, but
expectations are that it, or new storms spurred by its remnants
provide scattered to numerous TSRA late afternoon. That said...be
on the lookout as early as 18Z, as a handful of homegrown TSRA
could pop up before main focus arrives. We will have to be paying
close attention and ready to amend with quick notice today. Wind
field today fairly light and variable, but should be more ESE/SE
than anything most of the day.
After main round of TSRA comes to an end this evening, we should
clear out and get a break for much or all of the night,
anticipating a mix of VFR and MVFR with overnight clouds.
Tomorrow`s round will again depend on today`s activity out west,
but will tentatively begin with a PROB30 at the very end of CLL`s
TAF and the very end of the IAH extended. Consider this a *very*
rough outline, though.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Onshore flow will continue to prevail
throughout the week, and wind speeds may increase enough for
additional rounds of caution flags at times. Daily chances for
showers and storms will continue throughout the week bringing the
potential for locally higher winds and seas. The persistent
onshore flow will keep the rip current risk along Gulf-facing
beaches moderate to high throughout the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 88 73 / 40 30 80 40
Houston (IAH) 92 75 90 77 / 50 30 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 88 81 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Adams
FXUS64 KHGX 101134
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
We now find ourselves in a still hot, but more seasonably hot
pattern in Southeast Texas. The tradeoff for that is daily
potential for thunderstorms. And while most of these storms will
be more typical summer storms, the strongest storms of the day
will have at least some potential for producing damaging winds,
hail, and/or locally excessive rain. A few things at the top of
mind for the rest of this week:
- At least a portion of the area will daily be in a marginal risk
area for severe weather (threat level 1 of 5) and for excessive
rain (threat level 1 of 4). While most of each day`s storms will
be manageable, you`ll want to be able to receive any weather
alerts should you come across one of the strongest storms of the
day.
- Wednesday does stand out slightly from the rest of the week for
the potential to see localized flooding issues from heavy rain.
On this day, we have a slight risk (threat level 2 of 4) for
excessive rain.
- Beyond the shower and storm potential, temperatures should
become more seasonable, particularly for afternoon highs.
Overnight lows do look to remain modestly elevated over
seasonal averages for the next several nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
At a high level, a look at tonight`s water vapor satellite imagery
kinda gives us a real good look at where we came from yesterday
and where we have to go from here. We`ve got a deep trough
dominating the eastern half of the US, centered over the Great
Lakes. We find ourselves on the back side of this trough, with the
environment that led to yesterday`s severe potential off to our
east (that thankfully had the ingredients come together not quite
as needed to fully materialize the threat). Looking west and
upstream in the flow, we see another big (but now sub-severe)
mesoscale convective system way out in West Texas. And...yes...the
remains of this complex is likely to play a significant role in
today`s storm potential. But looking back behind that, we can see
at least two more shortwave troughs riding around the edge of the
ridge building over the Western US. As we see these shortwaves
line up, it become immediately obvious that we`ll continue to see
round after round of storm potential as these troughs move through
the broader upper air pattern.
So...what about those rounds? Well...I wish I had something I
could say with strong confidence beyond that we`ll see storms
develop as these upper troughs move through, with a break of fair
weather between them. Specific timing and most impacted locations
are going to be influenced pretty severely by mesoscale factors
and we`ll almost have to take things as they come. Today, after a
smattering of isolated, light morning showers fade off, we`re
going to look more towards what comes of the remnants of the West
Texas MCS. As this moves through the area, that will be the clear
focus for afternoon storm development. It seems like the bulk of
the guidance brings this across the northern part of the area -
perhaps scraping along the northern edge of the Houston metro but
mainly focusing north of the metro. And, in general, my forecast
reflects this as the complex is already sub-severe and should
display less deviant motion influenced by its own internal
mechanics. However, I make sure to keep some 30-40 percent PoPs
farther south, as it`s still possible that this line deviates more
south than the mid-level flow would suggest, and moves across the
area more centered over I-10. This scenario is explicitly shown in
some of the evening CAM guidance and it`s prudent to at least
hedge to this a bit right now. That said, my expectation would be
that this a scenario that plays out with a stronger MCS able to
exert more deviant motion from the environmental flow, hence my
higher PoPs up north.
For Wednesday, I`m looking at the next shortwave trough up the
stream. This one is strong enough that it actually gets a
significant chunk into the building ridge out west in objective
analysis. And look, I trust the models on this, I really do. But
the thing that really makes me perk up on this shortwave trough is
that the jet streak around the base of this shortwave trough is
very plainly obvious in the water vapor imagery. It`s a feature
that grabs my attention immediately after the West Texas MCS. By
the time it gets here, it will certainly be able to produce some
solid storms. Though precipitable water comes in just under the
90th percentile, it is still progged to be around 1.75 inches.
That should still be good for some solid storms, and assuming we
got some locations to rack up some decent rain totals from
yesterday and today, they will be more vulnerable to high rain
rate storms causing localized flooding issues. So, if you`re a
spot that got a good storm yesterday or today, and especially if
you see that both days, Wednesday could be a day of concern.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Multiple rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are on tap through the week and into the weekend. A closed low
developing over the Southern plains will result in SW flow aloft,
and will send several vorticity maximums (areas of enhanced
upward motion) through the region. Closer to the surface, the
frontal boundary that led to storms this afternoon will meander
over the area and interact with the warm humid airmass that is in
place (courtesy of persistent southerly/onshore flow). A stronger
upper-level wave is expected to move through SE Texas later in the
week, resulting in scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these storms have the potential to become
strong and produce locally heavy downpours, strong winds, and
small hail.
Highs through the week will generally be in the low 90s through
the weekend. Deviations from the forecasted temperature each day
will depend largely on what locations receive rain or any outflow
boundaries that manage to bring in cooler air.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Quite high confidence in stormy pattern through the TAF period,
much less confidence in the exact specifics. Main issue looks to
be from line currently making its way from West Texas towards Hill
Country this morning. Line has been slow and timing difficult, but
expectations are that it, or new storms spurred by its remnants
provide scattered to numerous TSRA late afternoon. That said...be
on the lookout as early as 18Z, as a handful of homegrown TSRA
could pop up before main focus arrives. We will have to be paying
close attention and ready to amend with quick notice today. Wind
field today fairly light and variable, but should be more ESE/SE
than anything most of the day.
After main round of TSRA comes to an end this evening, we should
clear out and get a break for much or all of the night,
anticipating a mix of VFR and MVFR with overnight clouds.
Tomorrow`s round will again depend on today`s activity out west,
but will tentatively begin with a PROB30 at the very end of CLL`s
TAF and the very end of the IAH extended. Consider this a *very*
rough outline, though.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Onshore flow will continue to prevail
throughout the week, and wind speeds may increase enough for
additional rounds of caution flags at times. Daily chances for
showers and storms will continue throughout the week bringing the
potential for locally higher winds and seas. The persistent
onshore flow will keep the rip current risk along Gulf-facing
beaches moderate to high throughout the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 88 73 / 40 30 80 40
Houston (IAH) 92 75 90 77 / 50 30 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 88 81 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Adams
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
The frontside of this next wave is going convective way out ahead of the outflow. In layman’s terms: lift is moving-in, in tandem with heating, so it’s probably going to rain for most of metro Houston.
Have a safe trip! Enjoy!MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jun 10, 2025 9:42 amThat one was intense! Got a nice burst.
I’m off to Northern Canada and the Arctic to fish. Wish me luck and I expect to come back to a soaked ground.
Nice photo Cpv17!!
Quite light rain here on and off. Only 0.10 inches in accumulation. But cloudy, lack of severe weather - I'm here for it. It's grass recovering, tree growing weather and as much summer as we can cut off, the better and closer to football season we are! Duke lost their CWS spot to Murray State last night by one run. 0-7 in chances to go to Omaha. The bats just didn't get it done.
The Astros and Cubs first are in their divisions, so that's something. As the NBA Finals are closer to completion...besides the golf majors, it's a sports wasteland until CFB again. Back in NC, it's milder, with more rain and either the beach or mountains beckon during the summer. Pool water doesn't turn to bath water. Here, summers are a grind...can we just get to that first FROPA and Gameday Saturdays?! lol
During the college target tour we took for our son a number of years ago. At the beginning of the orientation session at Georgia Tech there were parents from all over the country and world gathered in a room. It was probably 87°F outside and we're preparing to walk out and tour the grounds. So, the tour guide apologizes for "the heat." My son and I startle the room because we immediately burst out laughing: "We're from Texas. This isn't hot!"
CoCo - enjoy that Great White North. They have aircraft carriers for those mosquitoes! Stock up on that deep woods Off!
The Astros and Cubs first are in their divisions, so that's something. As the NBA Finals are closer to completion...besides the golf majors, it's a sports wasteland until CFB again. Back in NC, it's milder, with more rain and either the beach or mountains beckon during the summer. Pool water doesn't turn to bath water. Here, summers are a grind...can we just get to that first FROPA and Gameday Saturdays?! lol
During the college target tour we took for our son a number of years ago. At the beginning of the orientation session at Georgia Tech there were parents from all over the country and world gathered in a room. It was probably 87°F outside and we're preparing to walk out and tour the grounds. So, the tour guide apologizes for "the heat." My son and I startle the room because we immediately burst out laughing: "We're from Texas. This isn't hot!"
CoCo - enjoy that Great White North. They have aircraft carriers for those mosquitoes! Stock up on that deep woods Off!
Popcorn variety storms really firing up across the coastal counties down to Victoria. Coalescing into a broader complex as we speak.
A ton of thunder/lightning in League City right now. These things have some juice.
A ton of thunder/lightning in League City right now. These things have some juice.