June 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Thu Jun 19, 2025 9:14 am Walked 5 miles at a 14 minute pace this morning from 6 to 7 15 am. Goodness gracious the dewpoints. I was soaked from heard to toe.
I’m about to join you with being soaked from head to toe. I have the day off for Juneteenth and about to go cut this 6-8” high grass and I have to use a push mower to cut my yard and it’s not one of those small yards like you see in the burbs either.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 19, 2025 9:44 am
tireman4 wrote: Thu Jun 19, 2025 9:14 am Walked 5 miles at a 14 minute pace this morning from 6 to 7 15 am. Goodness gracious the dewpoints. I was soaked from heard to toe.
I’m about to join you with being soaked from head to toe. I have the day off for Juneteenth and about to go cut this 6-8” high grass and I have to use a push mower to cut my yard and it’s not one of those small yards like you see in the burbs either.
I bought a Cub Cadet with about a 190cc Honda engine a few years ago. It's a beast. Make Briggs & Stratton engines look a joke - I'll never go back. Can cut through thick, tall St. Augustine, even wet, like buttah.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jun 19, 2025 12:39 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 19, 2025 9:44 am
tireman4 wrote: Thu Jun 19, 2025 9:14 am Walked 5 miles at a 14 minute pace this morning from 6 to 7 15 am. Goodness gracious the dewpoints. I was soaked from heard to toe.
I’m about to join you with being soaked from head to toe. I have the day off for Juneteenth and about to go cut this 6-8” high grass and I have to use a push mower to cut my yard and it’s not one of those small yards like you see in the burbs either.
I bought a Cub Cadet with about a 190cc Honda engine a few years ago. It's a beast. Make Briggs & Stratton engines look a joke - I'll never go back. Can cut through thick, tall St. Augustine, even wet, like buttah.
I’m looking for a new good push mower. Is it self propelled?
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 19, 2025 1:49 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jun 19, 2025 12:39 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 19, 2025 9:44 am

I’m about to join you with being soaked from head to toe. I have the day off for Juneteenth and about to go cut this 6-8” high grass and I have to use a push mower to cut my yard and it’s not one of those small yards like you see in the burbs either.
I bought a Cub Cadet with about a 190cc Honda engine a few years ago. It's a beast. Make Briggs & Stratton engines look a joke - I'll never go back. Can cut through thick, tall St. Augustine, even wet, like buttah.
I’m looking for a new good push mower. Is it self propelled?
That model is a walk behind with self propelled. I have some hilly, sloped, bumpy terrain. Large back wheels for turning, traction. Plus, I mulch - the soil sucks (gray, red clay, alkaline) around here, so over time I've built in a layer of topsoil through mulching the lawn, gardens/shrub beds.

I'm not sure CC is making the 700H anymore.
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DoctorMu
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CC/Honda make a push 160cc Honda engine model. It may or may not be right for you. It's not self-propelled. Good 21 inch deck. Great blades. Superior motor and carburetor. They don't rust out like the old Sears mowers.

https://www.cubcadet.com/en_US/prior-ye ... AQ710.html
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tireman4
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917
FXUS64 KHGX 201117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

- If you enjoyed the past couple days, you`ll like the weather
through most of the weekend as it`ll remain about the same.
- We`ll see an uptick in rain chances next week as mid level
high pressure moves further to our east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Forecast remains in pretty good shape and overall reasoning remains
about the same as advertised the past several days. Mid level
ridging centered just to our north and northeast should provide just
enough subsidence to keep diurnally driven precip on the lower
side into most of the weekend. That said, we`ve seen a touch more
coverage than what NBM has been depicting as of late so have gone
ahead and thrown in some 20% POPs to at least get the mention in
there (mainly coastal areas and offshore late at night and in the
mornings followed by inland sections later in the day and early
evening). That said, most of us won`t see much. Also, nudged high
temps up a little from NBM suggestions and closer to what we`ve
seen the past couple days.

Heading into next week, the ridge tracks further to the east and
expands across a good part of the eastern CONUS. With less
subsidence in place, a continued onshore flow and PW`s trending
closer to 2", and intermittent impulses rotating under/around the
periphery of the ridge axis...think we`ll see gradually
increasing shra/tstm chances for a decent part of next week. They
will still be mostly diurnally driven, but probably more overall
coverage. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

The forecast is persistence. Some patchy fog and low level clouds
have developed near CLL, CXO, and SGR leading to mainly MVFR
conditions this morning, but these conditions will scatter out by
14z leading to area-wide VFR conditions through the remainder of
today. Southerly winds, becoming breezy at times, will also
persist through the day. Some isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible, but coverage will be a bit
lower than yesterday with the main window of development being
between 21-00z. Like the past few nights, MVFR conditions may
redevelop at the northern TAF sites late tonight into early
Saturday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Look for continued S-SE winds in the 10-15kt range and 3-5ft seas
will prevail into next week. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are a possibility late at night and in the
mornings...though changes gradually increase heading into early-mid
next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 94 75 / 20 20 20 0
Houston (IAH) 95 78 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 89 82 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47
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tireman4
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659
FXUS64 KHGX 201843
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
143 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...New OVERVIEW, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.OVERVIEW...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

- Seasonal high temperatures are expected for the next several
days, whereas low temperatures will remain just slightly above
normal.
- Chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise for the
upcoming work week.

Cotto

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

We will continue our slight chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon to early evening
hours. Otherwise, expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and high
temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 90s inland and the upper
80s to lower 90s along the coasts. Tranquil and warm conditions
are expected tonight with light southerly winds and low
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s inland and the lower 80s
along the coasts (roughly about 4 to 6 degrees above normal for
most locations).

Similar conditions are expected to prevail throughout the weekend
as Southeast TX remains under the west southwest periphery of a
mid-level high. Thus, our chances for showers and storms are
expected to remain isolated. The high temperatures will remain
seasonal with highs mostly in the lower to mid 90s inland and the
upper 80s to lower 90s along the coasts. The low temperatures
however, will stay just slightly warmer than normal...generally
in the mid to upper 70s for areas north of I-10 and the upper 70s
to lower 80s for areas south of I-10. Heat indices will be in the
lower 100s for much of the region and although this is below
Advisory criteria, make sure you continue to practice heat safety
if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.

Rain chances will be on the rise for the upcoming work week as the
mid-level high pressure moves into Northeastern CONUS and several
mid to upper level disturbances move across Southeast TX
throughout the week. Combined with several vort maxes along with
sufficient moisture and instability, will lead to a wetter summer
weather pattern with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected each day. We may see a rinse and repeat
pattern each day with development over areas areas south of I-10
during the morning hours, expanding northward during the
afternoon to early evening hours. In addition, the seabreeze
could lead to a little more storm activity for locations near the
coast and Galveston Bay.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

The forecast is persistence. Some patchy fog and low level clouds
have developed near CLL, CXO, and SGR leading to mainly MVFR
conditions this morning, but these conditions will scatter out by
14z leading to area-wide VFR conditions through the remainder of
today. Southerly winds, becoming breezy at times, will also
persist through the day. Some isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible, but coverage will be a bit
lower than yesterday with the main window of development being
between 21-00z. Like the past few nights, MVFR conditions may
redevelop at the northern TAF sites late tonight into early
Saturday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas generally
between 2 and 4 feet are expected for the next several days. Seas
could reach 5 feet over the offshore waters from time to time.
Daily chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms will
continue into much of the upcoming work week. Higher winds and
seas may occur in and around storms.

Moderate to high risk for rip currents along the Gulf facing
coasts.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 93 75 92 / 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 78 93 77 92 / 0 10 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 89 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

OVERVIEW...Cotto /24/
DISCUSSION...Cotto /24/
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto /24/
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tireman4
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DoctorMu
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Some showers are popping near SAT and the Hill Country. Been better, been worse here for late June.

Next midweek is a maybe on showers as the ridge slides east for handful of days.
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tireman4
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Today's outlook
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DoctorMu
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A nice seabreeze. The airport is getting some heavy rain. Not so much us. Fingers crossed.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun Jun 22, 2025 3:36 pm A nice seabreeze. The airport is getting some heavy rain. Not so much us. Fingers crossed.
Why do these sea breeze showers blow up once they get N of I-10? What’s preventing them from doing so S of there? I see this a lot with sea breeze storms. Always has annoyed me.
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Rip76
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Nice storm here in the Woodlands
Cpv17
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Not sure what’s up with the higher rain chances this week. Channel 13 has like 30-60% rain chances every day. The globals don’t have much going on, especially the GFS.
Pas_Bon
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Jun 22, 2025 7:53 pm Not sure what’s up with the higher rain chances this week. Channel 13 has like 30-60% rain chances every day. The globals don’t have much going on, especially the GFS.
All my rain % went to ****
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tireman4
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210
FXUS64 KHGX 231129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

- Look for daily chances of some scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
- Not everyone will see rain each day, but chances/coverage look to
be highest Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Temperatures will generally be +/- 3 degrees of seasonable
norms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

At 1220am, we`re starting to see some iso/sct precip on the radar
screen offshore and near the coast. Look for this to continue
into the morning and eventually transition inland during the day.
This same overall precip pattern will probably exist for a good
part of the upcoming week.

With broad mid level ridging to our east/northeast we`ll see some
weak impulses sneak around under its periphery and into or near the
area at times. Fluctuations in the daily PW values will likely
dictate overall rain chances/coverage. At the current time, it
appears Tue-Wed might be the more favorable days for the higher
coverage and when 1.8-2.2" PW`s will be in the neighborhood. This
axis of higher moisture should transition to our west and be
replaced with lower values (~1.3-1.6") Thur-Fri and we should see a
corresponding drop in rain chances and temps a degree or 3 higher.

Late in the week, an inverted mid level trof should make its way
across Florida and essentially become trapped over MS/AL/GA/n FL as
some ridging tries to build back in over parts of TX. Though the
ridging probably won`t be strong enough to eliminate rain chances in
our region, it`ll put up more of a battle than we`ll see in the
first half of the week. Suspect we will see a continuation of
iso- sct daytime shra/tstms in the late afternoon and early
evening hours. And with PW`s recovering to around 2", it`ll likely
feel more muggy/uncomfortable outside with the bump in RH`s. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

VFR conditions with SCT low level clouds will persist through the
period with SE winds around 8-12kt during daylight hours,
decreasing to below 6kt after sunset. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the late
morning and continue through the afternoon with the highest
coverage likely north of I-10. Additional coastal showers are
possible overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and 3 to 4 foot seas
should prevail for the next several days. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are possible Monday, followed by increasing rain
chances Tuesday and Wednesday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 73 92 74 / 30 30 20 20
Houston (IAH) 93 76 92 76 / 30 20 70 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 90 81 / 20 40 40 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...47
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Jun 22, 2025 4:09 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sun Jun 22, 2025 3:36 pm A nice seabreeze. The airport is getting some heavy rain. Not so much us. Fingers crossed.
Why do these sea breeze showers blow up once they get N of I-10? What’s preventing them from doing so S of there? I see this a lot with sea breeze storms. Always has annoyed me.
Nothing here. But a deluge at a local HEB.

They usually die before Navasota in the summer.
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tireman4
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334
FXUS64 KHGX 231834
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
134 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

- Look for daily chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

- Not everyone will see rain each day, but chances/coverage look to
be highest Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures will generally be +/- 3 degrees of seasonable
normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

As of 1 PM today, showers and thunderstorms have been mostly
developing over areas near and east of I-45, which is where the
GOES Total Precipitable Water Imagery shows the higher values,
roughly between 1.8-2.0 inches. IF we are able to override some of
the influence from the periphery of the NE CONUS mid-level high
pressure, then additional development would expand to areas near
and east of I-45 later in the afternoon and may continue into the
early evening hours.

Mostly tranquil conditions expected tonight for the inland
portions. We may see a few showers, possibly a storm or two,
moving into the coastal areas from the Gulf during the overnight
and early Tuesday morning. As the morning progresses, we should be
seeing a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity,
mostly over areas near and south of I-10. Showers and
thunderstorms will then expand further north and increase in
coverage during the afternoon to early evening hours. Stronger
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and brief periods
of heavy rainfall, which could lead to ponding of water along
roads. Chance for rain will decrease Tuesday night, although the
Piney Woods region and coastal areas could still see some isolated
showers developing later that night. A similar setup can be
expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Models continue to show drier air from surface to mid-levels as
well as less instability for Thursday into Friday. Thus, shower
and thunderstorm activity will be less for those days. Moisture
begins to increase again during the upcoming weekend as an upper
level trough looks to slowly move across the Southern Plains. This
may result in a gradual increase in rain chances for the weekend.


With respect to temperatures, our high temperatures during the
next several days will remain near normal or just a few degrees
lower (generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s). Meanwhile, our
low temperatures, will remain near normal to just a few degrees
above (generally between the mid to upper 70s). Heat indices will
be in the lower 100s throughout the week.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

VFR conditions with SCT low level clouds will persist through the
period with SE winds around 8-12kt during daylight hours,
decreasing to below 6kt after sunset. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the late
morning and continue through the afternoon with the highest
coverage likely north of I-10. Additional coastal showers are
possible overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and 2 to 4 foot seas
are expected for the next several days. Chance for isolated
showers and storms this afternoon, followed by increasing chances
Tuesday into Wednesday. Higher winds and seas may occur in and
around storms. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

Persistent onshore winds will lead to higher water levels, in
particular during high tide, as well as a moderate to high risk
for rip currents along the Gulf facing coasts.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 91 74 90 / 20 30 10 30
Houston (IAH) 76 91 76 90 / 10 60 30 60
Galveston (GLS) 81 90 81 89 / 20 40 50 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Fowler (Cotto for 18Z issuance)
MARINE...Cotto
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DoctorMu
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Nothing again. The storms slid east, turned our way, then died.
Pas_Bon
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I don’t like the trend I’m seeing of waning rain chances on the horizon coupled with increasing forecast temperatures.
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