June 2025

[tireman4]

298
FXUS64 KHGX 241120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day

-Highest chance of showers and thunderstorms will be today and
Wednesday

-Temperatures continue to run just above seasonable normals

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

A few light showers continuing along the immediate coast and the
Gulf Waters at this hour. Expect this pattern to continue
overnight with an uptick in activity expected Tuesday morning.
Most of the activity should occur along and south of the I-10
corridor during the morning hours before expanding north during
the afternoon/evening hours. As is typical for this time of year,
some storms have the potential to become stronger and could
produce gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and small hail. Heavy
downpours could result in ponding along roadways. Rain chances
decrease Tuesday night with the loss of daytime heating.

Expect that pattern to continue Wednesday and Wednesday night
before a slightly drier airmass moves in place Thursday into
Friday. This will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms for
both days (highest chances will be in the afternoon with daytime
heating and the sea/bay breeze).

Another reinforcement of moisture will send PWAT values rising
into the 1.5-2.2" range Friday into Saturday as an upper level
trough cuts across the Southern Plains. This will lead to a
gradual increase in PoPs going into the weekend.

Temperatures during the daytime will be near to just above normal
for this time of years as highs hang around the 85-95 degree
range. Muggy and mild nights are expected each night this week
with lows in the 70s inland to near 80 degrees along the coast.
Heat indices through the week will be in the 100-105 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected.
Coverage will be highest along the coast/south of I-10 through
around Noon, then expand northwards through around sunset.
Coverage is expected to be a bit higher today compared to the past
few days, so have gone with TEMPOs of TS instead of PROB30s for
the main hours of concern. While activity with end over land
through the night, there will likely still be some isolated
showers or even thunderstorms over the coastal waters possibly
impacting GLS and LBX through the night. Additional showers and
storms are expected through the day on Wednesday for most of the
region.

Otherwise, patchy fog this morning at CXO will dissipate within
the next hour or so giving way to area-wide VFR conditions with SE
winds around 6-10kts. Higher, variable wind gusts will be possible
with any of the thunderstorms that develop this evening.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and 2 to 4 foot seas
are expected for the next several days. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected for today and Wednesday. Higher winds
and seas may occur in and around storms. Isolated to potentially
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday into the
upcoming weekend.

Persistent onshore winds will lead to higher water levels, in
particular during high tide, as well as a moderate to high risk
for rip currents along the Gulf facing coasts.

Adams

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 89 73 / 20 10 40 0
Houston (IAH) 91 75 90 75 / 50 20 70 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 88 82 / 50 40 60 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Adams

[DoctorMu]

West of us. Then East of us. Today's seabreeze setup looks West of us.

[tireman4]

933
FXUS64 KHGX 241837
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
137 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...


.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

- Hit-or-miss scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and Wednesday, before rain and storm chances slightly diminish
through the end of the week.

- Warm and humid conditions continue, though temperatures will
remain near seasonal for late June standards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Mid to upper high pressure system remains in control across most of
southeastern CONUS today. Southeast Texas is positioned in the
southwestern edge of the ridge, meaning persistent east to
southeasterly surface flow into the region. Surface flow will
continue to surge Gulf moisture inland, resulting in PWs into the
1.8 to 2.2 inch range. Deep moisture, diurnal heating and surface
boundaries (sea/bay breeze interaction) will continue to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chances
will be inland, and should gradually weaken by sunset with the loss
of daytime heating. These are typical summer storms; however, a few
of them could become strong with gusty winds up to 30-40 mph, small
hail and/or heavy downpours. While most of this activity will end
around sunset, isolated to scattered showers with a few storms will
be possible in the evening and overnight hours, mainly south of I-10
and along the coast. This is primarily driven by a passing weak
embedded inverted trough aloft from the east.

Upper-lvl flow pattern does not change much across the region on
Wednesday; other than a slight uptick in moisture. As result, summer-
like convection are expected, this time beginning as early as
daybreak throughout the day, i.e., coastal showers/storms in the
morning, then developing further inland in the afternoon.

A drier airmass filters in after Thursday thanks to the upper ridge
that will move further to the west, increasing subsidence. This
pattern will only support a few showers or storms, but overall,
chances will remain low (isolated). The best rain chances over the
coastal counties and waters.

As we head into the weekend, an uptick in low to mid level moisture
returns as a mid-level disturbance develops along the south/middle
TX coast on Sunday. This system will bring increasing rain and storm
chances going into the upcoming week, with the highest chances close
to the coastal zones/counties.

850mb temperatures remain into the 15 to 20 degC in the next several
days; suggesting highs mainly in the low to upper 90s. This is near
seasonal for late June standards. Lows, on the other hand, will
generally be in the low to mid 70s, keeping nights mild and muggy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected.
Coverage will be highest along the coast/south of I-10 through
around Noon, then expand northwards through around sunset.
Coverage is expected to be a bit higher today compared to the past
few days, so have gone with TEMPOs of TS instead of PROB30s for
the main hours of concern. While activity with end over land
through the night, there will likely still be some isolated
showers or even thunderstorms over the coastal waters possibly
impacting GLS and LBX through the night. Additional showers and
storms are expected through the day on Wednesday for most of the
region.

Otherwise, patchy fog this morning at CXO will dissipate within
the next hour or so giving way to area-wide VFR conditions with SE
winds around 6-10kts. Higher, variable wind gusts will be possible
with any of the thunderstorms that develop this evening.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Typical summer weather pattern is expected through the week with
scattered showers and isolated storms over the coastal waters, mainly
in the morning. As the day progresses, expect showers/storms more
closer to the coast/bays, then developing further inland in the
afternoon. Rain and storm chances diminish Thursday and Friday,
before increasing again after Sunday. Overall, light to occasionally
moderate onshore winds and low seas are anticipated through the
week. Seas will generally remain into the 3 to 4 ft range; slightly
building during the weekend up to 5 ft.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 74 89 73 / 40 20 50 0
Houston (IAH) 89 75 89 75 / 50 30 60 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 88 81 / 30 40 60 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...JM

[Stratton20]

Made a comment on herzogs post from yesterday about how much i enjoy enjoy the rain, and immediately i get blasted for folks saying “ I must enjoy flooding” Or guess you never lost anything in harvey “ it truly is sad that you cant post an opinion about weather on social media without getting bashed for absolutely zero reason lol

[Pas_Bon]

Made a comment on herzogs post from yesterday about how much i enjoy enjoy the rain, and immediately i get blasted for folks saying “ I must enjoy flooding” Or guess you never lost anything in harvey “ it truly is sad that you cant post an opinion about weather on social media without getting bashed for absolutely zero reason lol

Microcosm/symptom of so much that is wrong with social media. It's a pissing contest for people to raise their hands and say they have the most trauma and are deserving of the most attention. Pay no attention to it. People suck.

[DoctorMu]

"Post...and Ghost" on most Social Media.

[Cpv17]

Made a comment on herzogs post from yesterday about how much i enjoy enjoy the rain, and immediately i get blasted for folks saying “ I must enjoy flooding” Or guess you never lost anything in harvey “ it truly is sad that you cant post an opinion about weather on social media without getting bashed for absolutely zero reason lol

Microcosm/symptom of so much that is wrong with social media. It's a pissing contest for people to raise their hands and say they have the most trauma and are deserving of the most attention. Pay no attention to it. People suck.

Yep, that’s why I don’t post much on there.

[DoctorMu]

Another day. Another donut. Thunder and showers all around. But not here.

[jasons2k]

Looks like rain back home in Texas today.
It’s great fishing weather down here in Florida.

[tireman4]

583
FXUS64 KHGX 251130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue
Wednesday, before rain and storm chances slightly diminish
through the end of the week.

- Warm and humid conditions continue; however, temperatures will
remain near normal for late June standards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

An influx of moisture is expected to continue overnight into
Wednesday as Southeast Texas remains positioned on the SW edge of
a mid- upper level ridge. PW values will remain in the 1.8-2.2"
range. This deep moisture along with daytime heating and the
sea/bay breeze will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday. As has been the case the last couple
of days some of these storms could become stronger with the
potential for small hail an damaging wind gusts.

A drier airmass will fill in the area Thursday as the upper ridge
moves west and encompasses Southeast Texas. Subsident air will
keep much of the area rain-free; however, pockets of moisture and
the afternoon sea/bay breeze may contribute to a few showers and
thunderstorms.

Another uptick in moisture is expected going into the weekend as
a mid-level disturbance develops along the South/Middle Texas
coast on Sunday. This will result in more chances for showers and
thunderstorms going into the next week. With the disturbance
developing along the coast, this is where the main focus of
showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to occur.

Temperatures through the week remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Lows during the nighttime hours will be in the 70s inland to the
low 80s along the coast with muggy conditions expected.

Adams

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
across SE Texas. The activity has already picked up along the
coast, and will be moving through the I-10 corridor by 14-15z.
Because of the scatter-shot nature of the showers and storms, have
predominately gone with SHRA VCTS for CXO southwards through the
afternoon. UTS and CLL may also get storms, but have put them at a
PROB30 since they are the furthest from the coast. If a
thunderstorm happens to move over a terminal, then expect gustier
winds and reductions in visibility due to heavy rainfall. Activity
will end during the evening hours near sunset, but likely pick
back up along the coast by daybreak Thursday.

Other than some patchy low CIGs at CXO this morning that will
scatter out within the next hour or so, VFR conditions will
prevail with SCT low to mid level clouds. SE winds around 6-10kt
will prevail through the day, becoming lighter overnight tonight.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The summertime weather pattern is expected to continue through
the week with scattered showers and isolated storms over the
coastal waters, mainly in the morning. As the day progresses,
expect showers/storms more closer to the coast/bays, then
developing further inland in the afternoon. Rain and storm chances
diminish Thursday and Friday, before increasing again after
Sunday. Overall, light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and
low seas are anticipated through the week. Seas will generally
remain into the 3 to 4 ft range; slightly building during the
weekend up to 5 ft. Locally higher winds and seas are possible in
and around thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 72 91 72 / 50 10 30 0
Houston (IAH) 88 75 91 75 / 70 10 50 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 82 / 70 20 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Adams

[DoctorMu]

Looks like rain back home in Texas today.
It’s great fishing weather down here in Florida.

Sitting in the donut, still. Storms all around.

Wishing I were in Florida or NC fishing on salty waters. FL once those easterlies kick in with near daily afternoon showers is gold.

[Cpv17]

Today just feels like it’s too cloudy and overcast for anything to really build up, at least down here anyway.

[djmike]

13.51” for June and counting…
We have been hammered with torrential rains the last two weeks in Beaumont. And it’s pouring now! Again! Im getting tired of FFW. Gonna need a boat of this doesn't slow down some. 13.76” now just while writing this message.

[DoctorMu]

Finally some light rain. 0.30 inches for today 3.17 for the month. Below average, but could be and can be a lot worse.

Hopefully, a drenching rain before the 4th Holiday, because the heat could be on by then.

[Pas_Bon]

Today was a nice rain day for League City. I hope we can cash in on more sea breeze storms in the future (we’ve largely missed out), but today was a nice reprieve. Geaux rain.

[tireman4]

238
FXUS64 KHGX 261106
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

- Daily chances for showers/storms continue into next week...there
will be a brief decrease in PoPs on Friday/Saturday then surges
again on Sunday.

- Plume of Saharan dust moves in on Sunday and prevails into next
week.

- Temperatures will be on an upward trend next week with highs
approaching the mid/upper 90s and heat indices well into the
triple digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Another day with the haves and have nots of receiving rain is in
store for Thursday with showers/storms beginning to stream in during
the early morning hours along the coast and increasing in coverage
throughout the afternoon as we add in daytime heating and
seabreeze/outflow boundary collisions into the mix. On the plus
side, this will keep temperatures down into the upper 80s/low 90s
for high temperatures. PW values will still be near or above 2.0" as
deeper tropical moisture remains in place, so some of the stronger
storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall which
could bring quick 1+" totals. The best chances of seeing rainfall
will be around or south of the I-10 corridor, but rain chances exist
everywhere. Temperatures on Thursday night will only bottom out in
the low to mid 70s. On Friday, mid-level high pressure builds in
over the southeastern CONUS leading a 500mb heights increasing to
~590 dam. Pair that with a push of drier air as well and we end up
with decreased chances for rain. They don`t drop to zero, but
definitely a noticeable drop. Due to the decreased rain chances,
temperatures will be able to rise into the low 90s areawide.

Saturday will be about the same with just another degree or so
warmer, and then we get to Sunday. There will be a plume of Saharan
dust moving in early in the morning, and a plume of moisture moving
in towards the afternoon. Additionally, mid-level high pressure will
be overhead as well...so what`s gonna happen?! Well at the very
least we`ll see hazy skies, but for those of you south of I-10
you`ll want to have your umbrellas nearby. Rain chances will be
highest along and south of I-10 on Sunday, especially in the
afternoon hours.

Going into next week, the Saharan dust sticks around as a ridging
pattern settles in leading to a decreasing rain chances and
increasing temperatures. Rain chances don`t look to go away
completely as the main ridge axis looks to remain to our north and
west...so the typical afternoon showers/storms along the sea breeze
type of pattern. Temperatures look to approach the mid to upper 90s
early next week. The drier air from the Saharan dust will play a
role in mixing out our dewpoints to the 60s during the afternoon
hours which as of right now should keep us from any Heat Advisory
mentions...but it`ll definitely still feel like its in the triple
digits for multiple days next week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

With the exception of scattered tstms today, VFR conditions and
light winds will prevail. Precip will taper off in the early
evening with the loss of heating. Locations north of the metro
area, mainly CLL and possibly UTS, might see some late night MVFR
stratus and patchy fog development heading into Fri morning. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue to prevail
throughout the forecast period along with daily chances for showers
and storms bringing about the potential for locally higher winds and
seas. Expecting the next round of scattered showers/storms to push
in on Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours. A plume of
Saharan dust moves in towards the end of the weekend and prevails
into next week leading to decreasing rain chances and increasing
temperatures. Seas in the Gulf waters will range from 2-4 feet
into next week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 72 92 73 / 30 30 10 0
Houston (IAH) 90 75 91 76 / 50 10 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 89 82 / 30 20 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[tireman4]

877
FXUS64 KHGX 261801
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
101 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- Chances for showers and storms each day throughout the forecast,
mainly during the daytime. Lowest PoPs on Friday, with the
greatest on Sunday.

- Plume of Saharan dust moves in Saturday evening/Sunday, bringing
hazy-white skies throughout portions of next week.

- Temperatures slowly trend upwards, reaching the mid/upper 90s
with triple digit heat indices by next week.

03

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Conditions today should be overall less active than days prior.
Broad ridging remains situated across the Southern Plains to the
Eastern sea board with weak embedded lows/disturbances aloft. Deep
PWs of 2.0 inches or more remain situated over the region, though
forcing remains lackluster. Still, scattered showers and a few
stray thunderstorms are ongoing, mainly west of Houston. CAMs are
not capturing this activity very well, and while the hourly HRRR
runs are starting to catch up, it still seems fixated on shifting
this activity near the metro/coastline this afternoon, similar to
that of typical summertime sea-breeze convection. While some
isolated activity has developed in these areas, the highest rain
chances & coverage will likely stay west of I-45 today, where the
main instability axis coincides with sfc theta E advection and
moisture convergence. Highs this afternoon will generally be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the 70s to lower
80s.

Friday is shaping up to be a similar story as broad ridging
continues to dominate the southern CONUS, though with notably
lower PoPs. Larger pattern changes begin on Saturday as 500mb
heights within the ridge creep upwards slightly, remaining near
588-592dam, along with the main ridge axis shifting from the east
coast to the ArkLaTex area. Deep PWs and some weaker embedded
disturbances could bring some showers and thunderstorms, though
activity will generally scattered to isolated. A plume of Saharan
dust will move into SE Texas Saturday evening, bringing hazy-
white skies through late next week as this airmass remains in
place. Coinciding with the rising midlevel heights, 850mb
temperatures will also gradually rise from 16-19C on Friday to
18-22C early next week. The Saharan dust could modify temps
downward, though only by a slight amount and primarily on Sunday
and Monday when the Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness is greatest.
Otherwise, temperatures trend upward with highs reaching the upper
80s/upper 90s next week with heat indices in the triple digits.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

With the exception of scattered tstms today, VFR conditions and
light winds will prevail. Precip will taper off in the early
evening with the loss of heating. Locations north of the metro
area, mainly CLL and possibly UTS, might see some late night MVFR
stratus and patchy fog development heading into Fri morning. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds (mostly 10 to 15 knots)
and seas of 2 to 5 feet will prevail over the next several days.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible daily, with chances
lowest on Friday. A plume of of Saharan dust moves over the region
Saturday evening/Sunday. As this drier Saharan airmass remains in
place, lower rain chances and higher temperatures can be expected
throughout next week. Rip current risk across the Gulf beaches
will generally be moderate throughout the forecast period.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 92 73 93 / 20 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 74 91 76 92 / 20 30 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 82 89 / 10 20 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03

[Stratton20]

Looks like the pattern turns hotter/ drier for us after today

[Cpv17]

Looks like the pattern turns hotter/ drier for us after today

After Sunday.

[tireman4]

Update.....