July 2025
The lawns in the neighborhood are getting that Texas brown look. Maybe one more shot until next weekend.
- Attachments
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Need a dose of precip. in CLL. This week through at least Thursday is going to suck.
Last call for...
Most of the seabreeze is west of us, like yesterday.
lol AND east.
If you want to find Jason and I on the map, just look for the gaps.
If you want to find Jason and I on the map, just look for the gaps.
And a Dark cloud passes just to the east and as a farewell gift dumps an outflow breeze. At least it's cloudy...
...then somehow reforms as a line north of us.
...then somehow reforms as a line north of us.
More Lucy next weekend...but it beats the Death Ridge.
Euro's about 4-5°F cooler this week for highs than GFS - that would keep us under 100°F.
Euro's about 4-5°F cooler this week for highs than GFS - that would keep us under 100°F.
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Picked up another .25” today bringing my 3 day total up to 2.11”.
We just missed out on a big rain today but I’m not complaining. The area from Egypt to Eagle Lake got absolutely hammered and that’s only about 15–25 min N of me.
We just missed out on a big rain today but I’m not complaining. The area from Egypt to Eagle Lake got absolutely hammered and that’s only about 15–25 min N of me.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6355
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
807
FXUS64 KHGX 281059
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
- Hotter conditions and rising heat stress through mid week.
- Heat Advisories could be needed Tuesday/Wednesday (NE counties),
though regardless heat safety should be practiced. weather.gov/heat
- Wetter/slightly cooler conditions arrive Thursday from another
approaching disturbance, continuing through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
High pressure will move into the ArkLaTex area today, with midlevel
heights within the ridge reaching 596-599 dam, over the 99.5th
climatological percentile for this time of the year (based on
NAEFS). With drier air filling in aloft as well, rain chances will
be slim through mid week. Temperatures continue to steadily rise as
well with highs today expected to reach the upper 80s/upper 90s.
This trend continues through Wednesday as triple digit ambient
temperatures becomes more likely. Afternoon heat indices during this
period are still expected to reach or exceed the 100 degree mark as
well with WBGT heat stress reaching high even extreme levels in
spots. We`ll have to keep an close eye on our northeastern counties
Tuesday and Wednesday, as these areas have shown a consistent signal
for higher heat stress, such that a heat advisory could be
warranted. Regardless, it would be worth exercising heat safety
throughout this time frame. Drink plenty of water, wear loose
fitting cloths and take frequent breaks to cool off, especially for
those preforming strenuous outdoor activities.
More substantial rain chances return on Thursday as another
trough/area of low pressure pushes westward across the SE
CONUS/northern Gulf. Recent model guidance show this trough stalling
in the vicinity as it becomes wedged between two areas of high
pressure (one over West TX/Southwest CONUS, the other over the
northeast Gulf), before later being pushed back eastward. Still, the
influx of deeper moisture/PWs and impulses rounding the peripheral
of the upper ridge will enable showers/storm development throughout
the weekend. Heat indicies will still be high though short of
advisory levels, possibly lower due to rain-cooled air brought by
storms.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
Patchy ground fog has developed across portions of the area during
the predawn hours this morning, impacting CXO, LBX, and SGR at
times. Any lingering MIFG this morning will quickly dissipate
after sunrise. Otherwise, expect continued VFR conditions with a
FEW to SCT low and mid-level clouds through the day. Some isolated
showers are possible along the coast through the I-10 corridor
this morning through the afternoon as well, but coverage will be
so minimal that even a PROB30 would be too generous. Any shower
activity will end by 22-00z this evening.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
High pressure in the vicinity will bring calmer weather with 1-3 ft
seas and seabreeze-landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots.
Scattered showers and storms return on Thursday as the next
disturbance approaches from the east, continuing through the weekend.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 73 99 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 75 98 76 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 80 93 80 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 281059
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
- Hotter conditions and rising heat stress through mid week.
- Heat Advisories could be needed Tuesday/Wednesday (NE counties),
though regardless heat safety should be practiced. weather.gov/heat
- Wetter/slightly cooler conditions arrive Thursday from another
approaching disturbance, continuing through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
High pressure will move into the ArkLaTex area today, with midlevel
heights within the ridge reaching 596-599 dam, over the 99.5th
climatological percentile for this time of the year (based on
NAEFS). With drier air filling in aloft as well, rain chances will
be slim through mid week. Temperatures continue to steadily rise as
well with highs today expected to reach the upper 80s/upper 90s.
This trend continues through Wednesday as triple digit ambient
temperatures becomes more likely. Afternoon heat indices during this
period are still expected to reach or exceed the 100 degree mark as
well with WBGT heat stress reaching high even extreme levels in
spots. We`ll have to keep an close eye on our northeastern counties
Tuesday and Wednesday, as these areas have shown a consistent signal
for higher heat stress, such that a heat advisory could be
warranted. Regardless, it would be worth exercising heat safety
throughout this time frame. Drink plenty of water, wear loose
fitting cloths and take frequent breaks to cool off, especially for
those preforming strenuous outdoor activities.
More substantial rain chances return on Thursday as another
trough/area of low pressure pushes westward across the SE
CONUS/northern Gulf. Recent model guidance show this trough stalling
in the vicinity as it becomes wedged between two areas of high
pressure (one over West TX/Southwest CONUS, the other over the
northeast Gulf), before later being pushed back eastward. Still, the
influx of deeper moisture/PWs and impulses rounding the peripheral
of the upper ridge will enable showers/storm development throughout
the weekend. Heat indicies will still be high though short of
advisory levels, possibly lower due to rain-cooled air brought by
storms.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
Patchy ground fog has developed across portions of the area during
the predawn hours this morning, impacting CXO, LBX, and SGR at
times. Any lingering MIFG this morning will quickly dissipate
after sunrise. Otherwise, expect continued VFR conditions with a
FEW to SCT low and mid-level clouds through the day. Some isolated
showers are possible along the coast through the I-10 corridor
this morning through the afternoon as well, but coverage will be
so minimal that even a PROB30 would be too generous. Any shower
activity will end by 22-00z this evening.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
High pressure in the vicinity will bring calmer weather with 1-3 ft
seas and seabreeze-landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots.
Scattered showers and storms return on Thursday as the next
disturbance approaches from the east, continuing through the weekend.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 73 99 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 75 98 76 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 80 93 80 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6355
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
241
FXUS64 KHGX 281615
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1115 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
- Hotter conditions and rising heat stress through mid week.
- Rain chances return to the forecast during the second half of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
For the rest of today, mainly drier and warmer conditions are
anticipated compared to what we saw the past few days. Can`t rule
out an isolated afternoon storm or two along the baybreeze/seabreeze.
HRRR has shown some consistency depicting a pop-up cell over the
Houston area in the 4-6pm timeframe so some folks may encounter
some wet roads on their way home from work.
Ridging, both in the low and upper levels, will dominate area wx
for the next few days resulting in mainly dry and hot conditions
into midweek. Afternoon highs will climb into the 95-100F range.
Guidance is mostly suggesting dewpoints mixing out enough to keep
heat index values below heat advisory criteria (108F+), but
that`s something we`ll need to closely monitor. Regardless of an
advsy or not, heat safety precautions will need to be exercised
if working/playing outdoors.
During the second part of the week (and like the previous couple
weeks), the ridge slightly weakens and becomes repositioned
whereas we`ll start seeing some higher available moisture levels
and mid-upper level impulses work their way in from the east.
This should allow for scattered, mainly diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms to reenter the forecast on a daily basis
Thur-Mon and temperatures to trend closer to seasonable norms. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
Patchy ground fog has developed across portions of the area during
the predawn hours this morning, impacting CXO, LBX, and SGR at
times. Any lingering MIFG this morning will quickly dissipate
after sunrise. Otherwise, expect continued VFR conditions with a
FEW to SCT low and mid-level clouds through the day. Some isolated
showers are possible along the coast through the I-10 corridor
this morning through the afternoon as well, but coverage will be
so minimal that even a PROB30 would be too generous. Any shower
activity will end by 22-00z this evening.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
With high pressure and a weak pressure gradient in the vicinity,
we should see a prevailing landbreeze/seabreeze circulation
for much of the week...meaning a light offshore flow late at
night and in the mornings, followed by onshore winds in the
afternoon and evening hours. Seas will generally be less than 3
feet. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms trend back
upward Thursday into the weekend. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 76 98 76 / 20 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 93 79 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Cotto
FXUS64 KHGX 281615
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1115 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
- Hotter conditions and rising heat stress through mid week.
- Rain chances return to the forecast during the second half of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
For the rest of today, mainly drier and warmer conditions are
anticipated compared to what we saw the past few days. Can`t rule
out an isolated afternoon storm or two along the baybreeze/seabreeze.
HRRR has shown some consistency depicting a pop-up cell over the
Houston area in the 4-6pm timeframe so some folks may encounter
some wet roads on their way home from work.
Ridging, both in the low and upper levels, will dominate area wx
for the next few days resulting in mainly dry and hot conditions
into midweek. Afternoon highs will climb into the 95-100F range.
Guidance is mostly suggesting dewpoints mixing out enough to keep
heat index values below heat advisory criteria (108F+), but
that`s something we`ll need to closely monitor. Regardless of an
advsy or not, heat safety precautions will need to be exercised
if working/playing outdoors.
During the second part of the week (and like the previous couple
weeks), the ridge slightly weakens and becomes repositioned
whereas we`ll start seeing some higher available moisture levels
and mid-upper level impulses work their way in from the east.
This should allow for scattered, mainly diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms to reenter the forecast on a daily basis
Thur-Mon and temperatures to trend closer to seasonable norms. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
Patchy ground fog has developed across portions of the area during
the predawn hours this morning, impacting CXO, LBX, and SGR at
times. Any lingering MIFG this morning will quickly dissipate
after sunrise. Otherwise, expect continued VFR conditions with a
FEW to SCT low and mid-level clouds through the day. Some isolated
showers are possible along the coast through the I-10 corridor
this morning through the afternoon as well, but coverage will be
so minimal that even a PROB30 would be too generous. Any shower
activity will end by 22-00z this evening.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
With high pressure and a weak pressure gradient in the vicinity,
we should see a prevailing landbreeze/seabreeze circulation
for much of the week...meaning a light offshore flow late at
night and in the mornings, followed by onshore winds in the
afternoon and evening hours. Seas will generally be less than 3
feet. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms trend back
upward Thursday into the weekend. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 76 98 76 / 20 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 93 79 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Cotto
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6355
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
614
FXUS64 KHGX 291127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
- Hotter conditions and rising heat stress through mid week.
- Wetter/slightly cooler conditions arrive Thursday from another
approaching disturbance, continuing through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
High pressure remains in the vicinity with heights still around 596-
599 dam, over the 99.5th climatological percentile for this time of
the year (based on NAEFS). Drier conditions and slim rain chances
continue through Wednesday with temperatures broadly in the 90s to
triple digits. Afternoon heat indices during this period are still
largely expected to reach or exceed the 100 degree mark as well with
WBGT heat stress reaching high to extreme levels in spots. Guidance
has trended a tad lower with temps and dewpoints, thus heat stress
won`t quite reach the levels necessary for a heat advisory. Even
without an advisory, it would still be worth exercising heat safety
throughout this time frame, especially in areas northeast of Houston
today where heat stress is generally highest. Drink plenty of
water, wear loose fitting cloths and take frequent breaks to cool
off, especially for those preforming strenuous outdoor activities.
More substantial rain chances are still slated to return on Thursday
as another trough/area of low pressure pushes westward across the SE
CONUS/northern Gulf. Model guidance show this trough stalling in the
vicinity as it becomes wedged between two areas of high pressure
(one over West TX/Southwest CONUS, the other over the northeast
Gulf). The influx of deeper moisture and additional vorticity
rounding the edge of the ridges will enable showers/storm
development throughout the weekend into next week. Heat indicies
will still be short of advisory levels through this period, likely
lower in spots due to rain-cooled air brought by storms.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Patchy fog has developed southwest of the Houston Metro, becoming
dense at times, impacting SGR and LBX. This will persist through
sunrise, then dissipate giving way to area-wide VFR conditions
through the remainder of the day. Patchy fog will be possible
again tonight in these same areas.
Winds today will generally be less than 10kt, first coming out of
the northwest through the morning, becoming southerly in the
afternoon, then light and variable overnight tonight.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
High pressure in the vicinity will bring calmer weather with 1-3 ft
seas and seabreeze-landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots.
Scattered showers and storms return on Thursday as the next
disturbance approaches from the east, continuing through the weekend.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 77 97 78 / 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 94 80 93 82 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 291127
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
- Hotter conditions and rising heat stress through mid week.
- Wetter/slightly cooler conditions arrive Thursday from another
approaching disturbance, continuing through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
High pressure remains in the vicinity with heights still around 596-
599 dam, over the 99.5th climatological percentile for this time of
the year (based on NAEFS). Drier conditions and slim rain chances
continue through Wednesday with temperatures broadly in the 90s to
triple digits. Afternoon heat indices during this period are still
largely expected to reach or exceed the 100 degree mark as well with
WBGT heat stress reaching high to extreme levels in spots. Guidance
has trended a tad lower with temps and dewpoints, thus heat stress
won`t quite reach the levels necessary for a heat advisory. Even
without an advisory, it would still be worth exercising heat safety
throughout this time frame, especially in areas northeast of Houston
today where heat stress is generally highest. Drink plenty of
water, wear loose fitting cloths and take frequent breaks to cool
off, especially for those preforming strenuous outdoor activities.
More substantial rain chances are still slated to return on Thursday
as another trough/area of low pressure pushes westward across the SE
CONUS/northern Gulf. Model guidance show this trough stalling in the
vicinity as it becomes wedged between two areas of high pressure
(one over West TX/Southwest CONUS, the other over the northeast
Gulf). The influx of deeper moisture and additional vorticity
rounding the edge of the ridges will enable showers/storm
development throughout the weekend into next week. Heat indicies
will still be short of advisory levels through this period, likely
lower in spots due to rain-cooled air brought by storms.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Patchy fog has developed southwest of the Houston Metro, becoming
dense at times, impacting SGR and LBX. This will persist through
sunrise, then dissipate giving way to area-wide VFR conditions
through the remainder of the day. Patchy fog will be possible
again tonight in these same areas.
Winds today will generally be less than 10kt, first coming out of
the northwest through the morning, becoming southerly in the
afternoon, then light and variable overnight tonight.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
High pressure in the vicinity will bring calmer weather with 1-3 ft
seas and seabreeze-landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots.
Scattered showers and storms return on Thursday as the next
disturbance approaches from the east, continuing through the weekend.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 77 97 78 / 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 94 80 93 82 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03
Dry air has mixed down from the mid-levels in CLL. It's hot, but at least the DP sunk to 62°F. Close to 100°F today and tomorrow.
Another weekend, another bit of moisture from the east and a visit from a FROPA. I expect to be Lucy-ed, but there's a chance.
Another weekend, another bit of moisture from the east and a visit from a FROPA. I expect to be Lucy-ed, but there's a chance.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6355
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
459
FXUS64 KHGX 291655
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
- Very hot and mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow. Couldn`t
rule out isolated shower/storm tomorrow.
- Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures
conditions Thursday through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
A strong mid/upper ridge continues to dominate the pattern over the
Lone Star State, bringing hot and mostly dry conditions. Dew points
this afternoon are expected to mix down somewhat, helping to keep
those heat index values mostly below advisory thresholds. But
don`t let this trick you into thinking that it will feel `nice`
when you step outside. Afternoon temperatures are expected to
average in the 95 to 100 degree range, with heat index values
averaging 102 to 107. Tomorrow appears similar. However, the
ramifications of a mid/upper pattern in flux could be noticeable
by late afternoon.
A mid-level trough over SE CONUS will push southwest towards
Texas. The system may provide enough lift to bring some
shower/thunderstorm activity to our region as early as late
afternoon or evening tomorrow. Best chance of seeing a shower or
storm is east of I-45. Tomorrow`s Pops are generally low, but not
zero. PoPs will gradually increase as the system approaches from
the east, introducing more lift over an increasingly PWAT- rich
atmosphere. Thursday features a better chance of isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms. But the best chance of
showers/storms appears to be Friday into the weekend. Much like
the recent disturbances, there will be a chance of locally heavy
rainfall and localized flooding. Oh the joy of living on the Gulf
Coast. Temperatures will become less hot as rain chances and
cloud coverage rise. But most areas are still expected to reach
the low/mid 90s.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Patchy fog has developed southwest of the Houston Metro, becoming
dense at times, impacting SGR and LBX. This will persist through
sunrise, then dissipate giving way to area-wide VFR conditions
through the remainder of the day. Patchy fog will be possible
again tonight in these same areas.
Winds today will generally be less than 10kt, first coming out of
the northwest through the morning, becoming southerly in the
afternoon, then light and variable overnight tonight.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Generally low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds are
forecast to prevail this week. By Thursday and beyond, the chance
of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase. Locally
heavy thunderstorms capable of producing locally higher winds and
seas are possible Thursday through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 77 97 78 95 / 0 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 93 82 92 / 10 20 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 291655
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
- Very hot and mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow. Couldn`t
rule out isolated shower/storm tomorrow.
- Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures
conditions Thursday through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
A strong mid/upper ridge continues to dominate the pattern over the
Lone Star State, bringing hot and mostly dry conditions. Dew points
this afternoon are expected to mix down somewhat, helping to keep
those heat index values mostly below advisory thresholds. But
don`t let this trick you into thinking that it will feel `nice`
when you step outside. Afternoon temperatures are expected to
average in the 95 to 100 degree range, with heat index values
averaging 102 to 107. Tomorrow appears similar. However, the
ramifications of a mid/upper pattern in flux could be noticeable
by late afternoon.
A mid-level trough over SE CONUS will push southwest towards
Texas. The system may provide enough lift to bring some
shower/thunderstorm activity to our region as early as late
afternoon or evening tomorrow. Best chance of seeing a shower or
storm is east of I-45. Tomorrow`s Pops are generally low, but not
zero. PoPs will gradually increase as the system approaches from
the east, introducing more lift over an increasingly PWAT- rich
atmosphere. Thursday features a better chance of isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms. But the best chance of
showers/storms appears to be Friday into the weekend. Much like
the recent disturbances, there will be a chance of locally heavy
rainfall and localized flooding. Oh the joy of living on the Gulf
Coast. Temperatures will become less hot as rain chances and
cloud coverage rise. But most areas are still expected to reach
the low/mid 90s.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Patchy fog has developed southwest of the Houston Metro, becoming
dense at times, impacting SGR and LBX. This will persist through
sunrise, then dissipate giving way to area-wide VFR conditions
through the remainder of the day. Patchy fog will be possible
again tonight in these same areas.
Winds today will generally be less than 10kt, first coming out of
the northwest through the morning, becoming southerly in the
afternoon, then light and variable overnight tonight.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025
Generally low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds are
forecast to prevail this week. By Thursday and beyond, the chance
of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase. Locally
heavy thunderstorms capable of producing locally higher winds and
seas are possible Thursday through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 77 97 78 95 / 0 10 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 93 82 92 / 10 20 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self
100°F in Gainesville, FL for 3 days in a row.
The highest I can remember back in the day was 96° or 97°F. Usually, it reached 91°F before the rains came.
The highest I can remember back in the day was 96° or 97°F. Usually, it reached 91°F before the rains came.
Tsunami warnings issued in Japan after 8.7 magnitude quake off Russia's Kamchatka
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/ ... -advisory/
Strong 8.8 earthquake struck off the coast of Kamchatka Peninsula. Tsunami Warning issued.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/ ... -advisory/
Strong 8.8 earthquake struck off the coast of Kamchatka Peninsula. Tsunami Warning issued.
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tireman4
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953
FXUS64 KHGX 301118
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
- Very hot and mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow. Despite
that, there are slight chances (less than 20 percent) of a
shower or storm roughly east of I-45.
- Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures
conditions Thursday through the weekend. There is a marginal
risk of excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) both on Friday and
Saturday across Southeast Texas.
- Next week, temperatures will begin to drift back upwards, with a
return to more typical isolated to scattered afternoon storm
coverage.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
You know, if these past few weeks just haven`t been the summeriest
stretch of Southeast Texas summer one could possibly get, I`m not
sure how you could do it. The subtropical ridge is our main
weather feature, with the nuances in its strength and position
(and the passage of various upper troughs around the ridge`s
fringe) dictating changes in the weather from day to day.
For now, we remain in a stronger period for the ridge, and we`ve
gotten some hot and even somewhat unseasonably dry days of late.
But tomorrow, we`re going to *start* to see some transition. More
significant moisture will attempt to bleed into area from the
east, where it should be a little bit more humid while the west
stays drier. Indeed, we may again see some isolated spots out in
our northwest have their afternoon dewpoints mix to around 60
degrees. While not a huge change looks to make its way in,
precipitable water looks to increase enough east of I-45 that we
could see an isolated shower or storm pop up in the afternoon.
Elsewhere, though, another day without rain is expected.
By the late week and particularly the weekend, however, we`ll see
sufficiently deep moisture and the arrival of enough modest
troughing that we`ll see scattered to numerous afternoon showers
and storms each day. We`re not expecting any sort of widespread
washouts, but as so often occurs around here - there`ll be enough
moisture that the strongest storms of the day could produce
localized flooding issues if they develop over a particularly
vulnerable spot. On the plus side, increased clouds and rain
chances will tamp down the temperatures a little bit, and the
strong signal - especially near the coast - that we see in the
Euro ensemble for above average to even near record heat will fade
after Wednesday and likely be entirely gone by Friday. Not that
it`s going to get cool at all...but it`ll at least fade into a
more typical range of hot for the hottest time of the year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the day with FEW to SCT mid-
level clouds. Light northwesterly winds are expected to persist
through the late morning or early afternoon, then switching to
southerly by the afternoon, then returning to light and variable
tonight. Can`t out rule some patchy fog developing late tonight at
SGR, LBX, or CXO.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
Low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds driven by the
daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle are expected over the next
several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the
forecast heading into the weekend. Locally higher winds and waves
possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms later this week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 76 100 77 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 99 80 97 80 / 10 10 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 95 83 93 83 / 20 10 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 301118
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
- Very hot and mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow. Despite
that, there are slight chances (less than 20 percent) of a
shower or storm roughly east of I-45.
- Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures
conditions Thursday through the weekend. There is a marginal
risk of excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) both on Friday and
Saturday across Southeast Texas.
- Next week, temperatures will begin to drift back upwards, with a
return to more typical isolated to scattered afternoon storm
coverage.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
You know, if these past few weeks just haven`t been the summeriest
stretch of Southeast Texas summer one could possibly get, I`m not
sure how you could do it. The subtropical ridge is our main
weather feature, with the nuances in its strength and position
(and the passage of various upper troughs around the ridge`s
fringe) dictating changes in the weather from day to day.
For now, we remain in a stronger period for the ridge, and we`ve
gotten some hot and even somewhat unseasonably dry days of late.
But tomorrow, we`re going to *start* to see some transition. More
significant moisture will attempt to bleed into area from the
east, where it should be a little bit more humid while the west
stays drier. Indeed, we may again see some isolated spots out in
our northwest have their afternoon dewpoints mix to around 60
degrees. While not a huge change looks to make its way in,
precipitable water looks to increase enough east of I-45 that we
could see an isolated shower or storm pop up in the afternoon.
Elsewhere, though, another day without rain is expected.
By the late week and particularly the weekend, however, we`ll see
sufficiently deep moisture and the arrival of enough modest
troughing that we`ll see scattered to numerous afternoon showers
and storms each day. We`re not expecting any sort of widespread
washouts, but as so often occurs around here - there`ll be enough
moisture that the strongest storms of the day could produce
localized flooding issues if they develop over a particularly
vulnerable spot. On the plus side, increased clouds and rain
chances will tamp down the temperatures a little bit, and the
strong signal - especially near the coast - that we see in the
Euro ensemble for above average to even near record heat will fade
after Wednesday and likely be entirely gone by Friday. Not that
it`s going to get cool at all...but it`ll at least fade into a
more typical range of hot for the hottest time of the year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the day with FEW to SCT mid-
level clouds. Light northwesterly winds are expected to persist
through the late morning or early afternoon, then switching to
southerly by the afternoon, then returning to light and variable
tonight. Can`t out rule some patchy fog developing late tonight at
SGR, LBX, or CXO.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025
Low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds driven by the
daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle are expected over the next
several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the
forecast heading into the weekend. Locally higher winds and waves
possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms later this week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 76 100 77 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 99 80 97 80 / 10 10 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 95 83 93 83 / 20 10 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Luchs
Was it really 66 in San Antonio this morning?
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