Big Suck Day in SETX.
Mid level ridging drifts over the area. then slides toward the Four Corners. A mid level trough will allegedly slide under the ridge later in the week
30, 40, 60% chances of rain later in the week. While a high relative confidence this could go Lucy or flood. Erin passing the east coast could actually tip the weakness in our favor. We'll see. After next weekend, there's disagreement whether a ridge re-establishes itself. Also, disagreement on the fate of the next tropical mess off the African coast.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025
- Hot and humid conditions through midweek with heat indices in
the triple digits...be sure to practice heat safety!
- Daily chances for showers and storms continue throughout the
week with increased rain chances after midweek.
- There is potential for locally heavy rainfall towards the end of
the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025
There`s only so many ways to say that it`s hot...that means it`s
time to break out the ol` handy dandy thesaurus to find a new word!
Hmmm let`s see there`s "blazing"..."scorching"....ooo now here`s a
fun one..."roasting"! Makes sense because with mid-level pressure
overhead today paired with 850mb temperatures near or at the 90th
percentile, we`ll see high temperatures peaking in the mid to
upper 90s. So, you`ll feel like you`re being roasted if you`re
outside for an extended period of time this afternoon. We all know
the old saying though..."it`s not the heat that gets you, it`s
the humidity" and we`ll have plenty of humidity to go around too.
Dew points started out in the mid 70s to low 80s (you read that
right) this morning, but we should mix out into the low to mid 70s
later this afternoon which should prevent widespread advisory-
level heat indices. Now there will be some locations that do see
heat indices at or above 108F this afternoon. However, since
these values are not expected to be that widespread or occur for
an extended period of time, a Heat Advisory has not been issued.
Regardless of that though, you should still practice heat safety
especially if you`ll be outdoors for an extended period of time.
"Well good thing there`ll be scattered showers and storms this
afternoon to cool us off.....right?.....RIGHT?!" Well...rain
chances are more on the low side today (~20%), so most of us
won`t see any rain. The 12Z CAMs show a few specs of
showers/storms later this afternoon, but that`s about it. There
is one thing to watch for though...a couple of the CAMs show a
westward/southwestward moving cluster of storms pushing into the
region from the east later this afternoon. It`s not a sure thing
by any means, but if this does occur, then we`ll need to monitor
for the potential for strong wind gusts. Mid-level high pressure
remains overhead going into the early part of the work week, but
will be on a gradual northwestward trek. This means we`ll be in
position for various disturbances to wrap around from the
northwest, which means rain chances will be a bit higher than
today going into Monday and beyond. Mid-level high remains close
enough to keep temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 90s
with heat indices in the triple digits (flirting with advisory
criteria in some locations at times) into midweek.
With the center of the mid-level high over the Four Corners region,
a trough will be able to slide into the southern/southeastern
CONUS just after midweek. Deterministic model guidance continues
to show PW values peaking above the 90th percentile in the middle
to latter part of the work week. Coverage of showers and storms
should be a bit more widespread and we`ll continue to monitor
trends to see if the potential for locally heavy rainfall
remains. Portions of the Brazos Valley are already outlined in a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall on
Wednesday...and that expands to all of Southeast Texas on
Thursday.
As a result of the increasing rain chances, temperatures will be on
a decreasing trend after midweek. We`ll trade out the highs in the
mid to upper 90s for highs in the low to mid 90s. Until then though,
it`s gonna be hot so be sure to continue to practice heat safety
especially if you`ll be outdoors for an extended period of time:
know the signs of heat-related illnesses, stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the heat, wear sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS
LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as
well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is
too hot for their paws.
Batiste
&&
August 2025
All of a sudden I see a lot of beetles flying around in circles. They look like japanese pine bark beetles. Reminds me of 2007? 
2007 was a wet summer like 2004. 2007 was heading into La Nina.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6437
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
174
FXUS64 KHGX 181134
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025
- Hot and humid again today with heat indicies peaking in the 104-
108F range.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast this
afternoon and continue on a daily basis for the rest of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Overall, very little change from the ongoing forecast/reasoning
this week. The weather pattern for Southeast Texas will be dominated
by a gradual shift in the upper-level ridge over the area that
will be moving towards the Four Corners region through the early
and middle parts of the week. Though daytime heat will briefly
flirt with near advisory criteria today, look for a gradual
decrease in high temperatures for our area as the week progresses
as heights fall and increased clouds/rain work in some of their
magic.
Scattered tstm development is anticipated this afternoon into the
evening. Though widespread strong-severe cells are not anticipated,
the atmospheric profile is such (inverted-v type sounding) whereas I
wouldn`t be surprised to see some very localized 25-45mph gusts
in association with any of the more robust cells as they collapse.
Most activity should diminish with the loss of heating later this
evening. Fairly similar set-up Tuesday, though we might see a bit
more coverage near the coast and offshore as an upper disturbance
crosses that region from the ene to wsw.
We can expect a fairly active and repetitive pattern of showers and
thunderstorms pretty much every day...with best overall rain chances
probably in the Thurs-Fri timeframe. This is due to a combination of
factors: a light wind pattern, increasing moisture levels, daytime
heating, the influence of the daily sea breeze, and small
disturbances rotating around the periphery of the departing ridge.
Forecasting the exact timing and location of these storms each day
will be challenging as the pattern will likely be driven by smaller,
mesoscale features. While not everyone will see rain on a given day,
it is highly likely that most areas will receive some rainfall by
the end of the week - very broadly averaging 0.5-2.0". Though
activity should mostly be diurnally driven, we`ll need to monitor
for any currently unforeseen stronger impulses embedded in the
flow aloft that been known to occur in this type of pattern, as
well as interactions between different boundaries that could lead
to localized heavy downpours and gusty winds. But, there`s not
much skill trying to pinpoint these several days in advance. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Localized areas of IFR/MVFR should improve to VFR over the next
2-3 hours. Winds light and variable this morning become E to SE
5-10 knots by the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered
shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Best chance of tsra between
21-24Z. Any tsra should diminish this evening. Winds become light
and variable again overnight. Localized IFR/MVFR possible after
06Z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
A weak pressure gradient will remain in place for a good part of the
week which will lead to a prevailing landbreeze and seabreeze
circulation featuring variable to offshore wind directions late at
night and in the morning and a more moderate onshore winds in the
afternoons and evenings. Models are indicating the potential for
some scattered strong storms during the first part of Tuesday with a
passing upper disturbance. We`ll be monitoring trends. Otherwise, a
somewhat unsettled weather pattern is expected as the week
progresses with chances of showers and thunderstorms on a daily
basis. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 76 98 76 / 30 30 40 10
Houston (IAH) 99 79 97 79 / 40 40 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 82 92 82 / 20 30 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 181134
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025
- Hot and humid again today with heat indicies peaking in the 104-
108F range.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast this
afternoon and continue on a daily basis for the rest of the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Overall, very little change from the ongoing forecast/reasoning
this week. The weather pattern for Southeast Texas will be dominated
by a gradual shift in the upper-level ridge over the area that
will be moving towards the Four Corners region through the early
and middle parts of the week. Though daytime heat will briefly
flirt with near advisory criteria today, look for a gradual
decrease in high temperatures for our area as the week progresses
as heights fall and increased clouds/rain work in some of their
magic.
Scattered tstm development is anticipated this afternoon into the
evening. Though widespread strong-severe cells are not anticipated,
the atmospheric profile is such (inverted-v type sounding) whereas I
wouldn`t be surprised to see some very localized 25-45mph gusts
in association with any of the more robust cells as they collapse.
Most activity should diminish with the loss of heating later this
evening. Fairly similar set-up Tuesday, though we might see a bit
more coverage near the coast and offshore as an upper disturbance
crosses that region from the ene to wsw.
We can expect a fairly active and repetitive pattern of showers and
thunderstorms pretty much every day...with best overall rain chances
probably in the Thurs-Fri timeframe. This is due to a combination of
factors: a light wind pattern, increasing moisture levels, daytime
heating, the influence of the daily sea breeze, and small
disturbances rotating around the periphery of the departing ridge.
Forecasting the exact timing and location of these storms each day
will be challenging as the pattern will likely be driven by smaller,
mesoscale features. While not everyone will see rain on a given day,
it is highly likely that most areas will receive some rainfall by
the end of the week - very broadly averaging 0.5-2.0". Though
activity should mostly be diurnally driven, we`ll need to monitor
for any currently unforeseen stronger impulses embedded in the
flow aloft that been known to occur in this type of pattern, as
well as interactions between different boundaries that could lead
to localized heavy downpours and gusty winds. But, there`s not
much skill trying to pinpoint these several days in advance. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Localized areas of IFR/MVFR should improve to VFR over the next
2-3 hours. Winds light and variable this morning become E to SE
5-10 knots by the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered
shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Best chance of tsra between
21-24Z. Any tsra should diminish this evening. Winds become light
and variable again overnight. Localized IFR/MVFR possible after
06Z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
A weak pressure gradient will remain in place for a good part of the
week which will lead to a prevailing landbreeze and seabreeze
circulation featuring variable to offshore wind directions late at
night and in the morning and a more moderate onshore winds in the
afternoons and evenings. Models are indicating the potential for
some scattered strong storms during the first part of Tuesday with a
passing upper disturbance. We`ll be monitoring trends. Otherwise, a
somewhat unsettled weather pattern is expected as the week
progresses with chances of showers and thunderstorms on a daily
basis. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 76 98 76 / 30 30 40 10
Houston (IAH) 99 79 97 79 / 40 40 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 82 92 82 / 20 30 60 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6437
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
307
FXUS64 KHGX 181655
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
- Hot and humid conditions through midweek with heat indices near
advisory criteria at times...be sure to practice heat safety!
- Daily chances for showers and storms continue throughout the
week with increased rain chances after midweek.
- There is potential for locally heavy rainfall after midweek with
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for multiple days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
It`s very fitting that today is National Fajita Day since we`re
feeling the sizzle from the mid-August heat. I think these
temperatures would be A LOT more bearable if it came with sides of
tortillas, guacamole, and cheese. If you walk outside you can just
feel how steamy it is with high temperatures topping out mostly in
the upper 90s. The humidity adds some extra spice to the grill
(yeah I`m still thinking about those fajitas), which leads to
heat indices well into the triple digits. Dew points mixing out
into the low 70s later this afternoon should prevent widespread
advisory-level heat indices (108+F). Now there will be some
locations that will see heat indices at or above 108F this
afternoon. However, since these values are not expected to be that
widespread or occur for an extended period of time, a Heat
Advisory is not in effect. Regardless of that though, you should
still practice heat safety especially if you`ll be outdoors for an
extended period of time.
There will be opportunities for a brief cooldown due to isolated
to scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Rain chances are
higher today as the mid-level high is gradually nudging
northwestward, which places us in position to get passing
shortwaves moving in from the northeast. Speaking of shortwaves, a
rather robust one looks to move in early Tuesday morning...the
timing of it isn`t the best but it could still lead to a cluster
of showers/storms. If those manage to develop we`ll need to
monitor gusty winds if any of those storms manages to become
strong.
500mb heights will be on a gradual decreasing trend going into
midweek as the mid-level high retreats northwestward, but with 850mb
temperatures remaining near or above the 90th percentile we`ll
still manage to squeeze out high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s. Heat indices will still reach into the triple digits and
flirt with the advisory threshold in some locations. After midweek
is when things become a bit more interesting...a summer cold
front?! Now don`t get too excited and go looking in the back of
your closet for jackets, it`s still August! Since the center of
the mid-level high will be over the Four Corners region, a trough
will be able to slide down into the southern/southeastern CONUS
with an associated frontal boundary. Moisture convergence along
the boundary will lead to PW values surging above the 90th
percentile towards the end of the work week. There will be
multiple factors at play here in terms of how much rain we see and
exactly where the rain will fall each day, but just know that
rain chances increase towards end of the work week. Additionally,
some of that rainfall could be locally heavy. Areas north of I-10
are already outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of
excessive rainfall on Wednesday...and that expands to all of
Southeast Texas on Thursday and Friday. Daily shower/storm chances
stick around going into the weekend.
As a result of the increasing rain chances, temperatures will be on
a decreasing trend after midweek. We`ll trade out the highs in the
mid to upper 90s for highs in the low to mid 90s towards the end
of the work week. Until then though, it`s gonna be hot, so be sure
to continue to practice heat safety especially if you`ll be
outdoors for an extended period of time: know the signs of heat-
related illnesses, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the
heat, wear sunscreen, and ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your
vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is
too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their
paws.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Localized areas of IFR/MVFR should improve to VFR over the next
2-3 hours. Winds light and variable this morning become E to SE
5-10 knots by the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered
shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Best chance of tsra between
21-24Z. Any tsra should diminish this evening. Winds become light
and variable again overnight. Localized IFR/MVFR possible after
06Z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Light winds and low seas will prevail throughout the forecast
period, but the wind direction will fluctuate due to the
landbreeze/seabreeze daily. Expect offshore winds during the late
night to morning hours becoming onshore in the afternoon to evening
hours. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist throughout
the week with rain chances increasing after midweek. Winds and seas
could be locally higher in and near any of the stronger storms.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 98 76 98 / 10 50 10 50
Houston (IAH) 79 97 79 97 / 40 70 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 82 92 82 93 / 50 70 20 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 181655
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
- Hot and humid conditions through midweek with heat indices near
advisory criteria at times...be sure to practice heat safety!
- Daily chances for showers and storms continue throughout the
week with increased rain chances after midweek.
- There is potential for locally heavy rainfall after midweek with
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for multiple days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
It`s very fitting that today is National Fajita Day since we`re
feeling the sizzle from the mid-August heat. I think these
temperatures would be A LOT more bearable if it came with sides of
tortillas, guacamole, and cheese. If you walk outside you can just
feel how steamy it is with high temperatures topping out mostly in
the upper 90s. The humidity adds some extra spice to the grill
(yeah I`m still thinking about those fajitas), which leads to
heat indices well into the triple digits. Dew points mixing out
into the low 70s later this afternoon should prevent widespread
advisory-level heat indices (108+F). Now there will be some
locations that will see heat indices at or above 108F this
afternoon. However, since these values are not expected to be that
widespread or occur for an extended period of time, a Heat
Advisory is not in effect. Regardless of that though, you should
still practice heat safety especially if you`ll be outdoors for an
extended period of time.
There will be opportunities for a brief cooldown due to isolated
to scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Rain chances are
higher today as the mid-level high is gradually nudging
northwestward, which places us in position to get passing
shortwaves moving in from the northeast. Speaking of shortwaves, a
rather robust one looks to move in early Tuesday morning...the
timing of it isn`t the best but it could still lead to a cluster
of showers/storms. If those manage to develop we`ll need to
monitor gusty winds if any of those storms manages to become
strong.
500mb heights will be on a gradual decreasing trend going into
midweek as the mid-level high retreats northwestward, but with 850mb
temperatures remaining near or above the 90th percentile we`ll
still manage to squeeze out high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s. Heat indices will still reach into the triple digits and
flirt with the advisory threshold in some locations. After midweek
is when things become a bit more interesting...a summer cold
front?! Now don`t get too excited and go looking in the back of
your closet for jackets, it`s still August! Since the center of
the mid-level high will be over the Four Corners region, a trough
will be able to slide down into the southern/southeastern CONUS
with an associated frontal boundary. Moisture convergence along
the boundary will lead to PW values surging above the 90th
percentile towards the end of the work week. There will be
multiple factors at play here in terms of how much rain we see and
exactly where the rain will fall each day, but just know that
rain chances increase towards end of the work week. Additionally,
some of that rainfall could be locally heavy. Areas north of I-10
are already outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of
excessive rainfall on Wednesday...and that expands to all of
Southeast Texas on Thursday and Friday. Daily shower/storm chances
stick around going into the weekend.
As a result of the increasing rain chances, temperatures will be on
a decreasing trend after midweek. We`ll trade out the highs in the
mid to upper 90s for highs in the low to mid 90s towards the end
of the work week. Until then though, it`s gonna be hot, so be sure
to continue to practice heat safety especially if you`ll be
outdoors for an extended period of time: know the signs of heat-
related illnesses, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the
heat, wear sunscreen, and ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your
vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is
too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their
paws.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Localized areas of IFR/MVFR should improve to VFR over the next
2-3 hours. Winds light and variable this morning become E to SE
5-10 knots by the afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered
shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Best chance of tsra between
21-24Z. Any tsra should diminish this evening. Winds become light
and variable again overnight. Localized IFR/MVFR possible after
06Z tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Light winds and low seas will prevail throughout the forecast
period, but the wind direction will fluctuate due to the
landbreeze/seabreeze daily. Expect offshore winds during the late
night to morning hours becoming onshore in the afternoon to evening
hours. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist throughout
the week with rain chances increasing after midweek. Winds and seas
could be locally higher in and near any of the stronger storms.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 98 76 98 / 10 50 10 50
Houston (IAH) 79 97 79 97 / 40 70 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 82 92 82 93 / 50 70 20 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste
Easterlies are back. While this shower cluster to our east is going full Lucy at the doorstep, it's a sign of unsettled weather to come. Legit chance of rain, clouds, "cooler" weather.
101°F at IAH today 
99°F here
99°F here
Hmmmmmm....... Looks like more thunderstorms over Beaumont. They are moving to the southwest.
-
Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 355
- Joined: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:10 am
- Location: Angleton
- Contact:
What's this I hear about a cool front arriving next week? Highs in the 80s or something like that..heard the great lakes will have lows in the 40s...must be nice
Morning storms here. Nice.
That was a freaking storm in Cypress.
The irony is the NWS had lowered rain chances for today, again at the last minute.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6437
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
895
FXUS64 KHGX 191111
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms overnight will continue to
develop across portions of Southeast TX through the day. A few
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally
heavy rain.
- Hot and humid conditions remain with a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms.
- There is potential for locally heavy rainfall after midweek with
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for multiple days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
The region remains under the influence of a weak sfc ridging.
However, the main 500 mb high ridge that has been a fixture over the
area will continue to shift further westward across the SW CONUS
today. This westward shift will allow for deepening troughiness in
our area, providing a more favorable environment for lift and
precipitation. Therefore, a passage of a series of shortwave troughs
can be expected today and Wednesday. Per IR satellite imagery and
radar, the first of these shortwaves is currently moving across
Liberty and Chambers counties. As these storms move into our more
stable environment (lapse rates around 6 C/kg or less), they are
expected to be less likely to remain strong overnight. The situation
could be a bit different after daybreak. With the combination of mid
to upper-level forcing from the shortwave, daytime heating, and
ample moisture (PWs nearing 2.1 inches), thunderstorm activity is
expected to increase in intensity and coverage through the day. The
best chances for rain/storms will be after sunrise, with the highest
probability for areas along and south of I-10 after mid-late
morning. A similar scenario is anticipated on Wednesday as the
parade of mid-level shortwaves continues. A few strong storms will
be possible today and Wednesday with gusty winds and brief heavy
rain as the primary hazards.
A pattern change is expected with the arrival of a weak/slow-moving
cold front. A cold front in August generally brings less hot
conditions and rain/storm chances. This is what we can expect on
Thursday and Friday. Models continue to bring an uptick in moisture
along the surface convergence boundary with precipitable water
values at or above 2.0 inches, leading to increasing rain and storm
chances. In fact, a few of these cells could produce pockets of
heavy rainfall, resulting in minor street flooding. Confidence in
exact rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rain is still
moderate. For now, expected increasing rain/storm chances Wednesday
into Friday along and ahead of the boundary. WPC placed our region
under a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday through
Friday. The front washes out and/or becomes stationary along the
coast during the weekend. Therefore, will continue with daily rain
and storm chances, with the best probabilities in the afternoon.
In terms of temperatures, the heat continues. Despite increasing
troughiness aloft, 850 mb temperatures show values into the 19 to 23
degC range, suggesting surface highs in the mid to upper 90s each
day. Given increasing rain and storm chances with the FROPA, highs
could potentially be in the low to mid 90s Thursday and Friday.
Confidence is low to moderate, as it will depend on the time of
arrival of the front. The main key points here are that the heat
continues and combined with increased humidity levels, heat indices
could reach the 105 to 107F in some areas. Don`t forget to practice
heat safety!
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
A mid/upper disturbance is moving east to west across our region
this morning. The system is expected to produce scattered shra
activity. We think there will be at least some isolated tsra.
However, there is uncertainty regarding tsra coverage this morning
since the system will not have peak daytime heating to work with.
That being said, some of the hi-res guidance suggests there will
be tsra activity this morning. Therefore, we will watch the radar
closely in case amendments to add tsra are needed. Isolated
shra/tsra possible this afternoon. Winds generally light and
variable. However, locally higher wind gusts possible in the
vicinity of tsra. In addition, winds may pick up slightly this
afternoon from the E to SE, before becoming light and variable
again this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
Generally, light winds and low seas will persist through most of the
work-week along with daily rain and storm chances. The effect of
landbreeze and seabreeze will continue to bring offshore winds late
night into early mornings, before gradually shifting onshore in the
afternoon and evening. A weak summer cold front will attempt to move
through the coastal waters Thursday into Friday. Scattered
rain/storms and a brief period of offshore winds expected with the
FROPA. Gusty winds and brief reduced visibility can be expected
near/around any strong storms.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 76 98 75 / 40 10 50 40
Houston (IAH) 97 79 97 78 / 60 10 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 93 81 / 70 20 40 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 191111
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms overnight will continue to
develop across portions of Southeast TX through the day. A few
storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally
heavy rain.
- Hot and humid conditions remain with a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms.
- There is potential for locally heavy rainfall after midweek with
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for multiple days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
The region remains under the influence of a weak sfc ridging.
However, the main 500 mb high ridge that has been a fixture over the
area will continue to shift further westward across the SW CONUS
today. This westward shift will allow for deepening troughiness in
our area, providing a more favorable environment for lift and
precipitation. Therefore, a passage of a series of shortwave troughs
can be expected today and Wednesday. Per IR satellite imagery and
radar, the first of these shortwaves is currently moving across
Liberty and Chambers counties. As these storms move into our more
stable environment (lapse rates around 6 C/kg or less), they are
expected to be less likely to remain strong overnight. The situation
could be a bit different after daybreak. With the combination of mid
to upper-level forcing from the shortwave, daytime heating, and
ample moisture (PWs nearing 2.1 inches), thunderstorm activity is
expected to increase in intensity and coverage through the day. The
best chances for rain/storms will be after sunrise, with the highest
probability for areas along and south of I-10 after mid-late
morning. A similar scenario is anticipated on Wednesday as the
parade of mid-level shortwaves continues. A few strong storms will
be possible today and Wednesday with gusty winds and brief heavy
rain as the primary hazards.
A pattern change is expected with the arrival of a weak/slow-moving
cold front. A cold front in August generally brings less hot
conditions and rain/storm chances. This is what we can expect on
Thursday and Friday. Models continue to bring an uptick in moisture
along the surface convergence boundary with precipitable water
values at or above 2.0 inches, leading to increasing rain and storm
chances. In fact, a few of these cells could produce pockets of
heavy rainfall, resulting in minor street flooding. Confidence in
exact rainfall totals and the location of the heaviest rain is still
moderate. For now, expected increasing rain/storm chances Wednesday
into Friday along and ahead of the boundary. WPC placed our region
under a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for Wednesday through
Friday. The front washes out and/or becomes stationary along the
coast during the weekend. Therefore, will continue with daily rain
and storm chances, with the best probabilities in the afternoon.
In terms of temperatures, the heat continues. Despite increasing
troughiness aloft, 850 mb temperatures show values into the 19 to 23
degC range, suggesting surface highs in the mid to upper 90s each
day. Given increasing rain and storm chances with the FROPA, highs
could potentially be in the low to mid 90s Thursday and Friday.
Confidence is low to moderate, as it will depend on the time of
arrival of the front. The main key points here are that the heat
continues and combined with increased humidity levels, heat indices
could reach the 105 to 107F in some areas. Don`t forget to practice
heat safety!
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
A mid/upper disturbance is moving east to west across our region
this morning. The system is expected to produce scattered shra
activity. We think there will be at least some isolated tsra.
However, there is uncertainty regarding tsra coverage this morning
since the system will not have peak daytime heating to work with.
That being said, some of the hi-res guidance suggests there will
be tsra activity this morning. Therefore, we will watch the radar
closely in case amendments to add tsra are needed. Isolated
shra/tsra possible this afternoon. Winds generally light and
variable. However, locally higher wind gusts possible in the
vicinity of tsra. In addition, winds may pick up slightly this
afternoon from the E to SE, before becoming light and variable
again this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
Generally, light winds and low seas will persist through most of the
work-week along with daily rain and storm chances. The effect of
landbreeze and seabreeze will continue to bring offshore winds late
night into early mornings, before gradually shifting onshore in the
afternoon and evening. A weak summer cold front will attempt to move
through the coastal waters Thursday into Friday. Scattered
rain/storms and a brief period of offshore winds expected with the
FROPA. Gusty winds and brief reduced visibility can be expected
near/around any strong storms.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 76 98 75 / 40 10 50 40
Houston (IAH) 97 79 97 78 / 60 10 60 40
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 93 81 / 70 20 40 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM
NWS has been miserable at forecasting this year. We're right on the edge of the MCS. We probably won't get much rain if we do at all. Hope others got wet. But it's a sign for the week.