October 2025

[captainbarbossa19]

Any chance this rain holds off until later tomorrow afternoon, going to a friends moms funeral from 12-2pm

I went 20% tomorrow for Southeast Texas. There could be some showers in the Houston area tomorrow afternoon, but it should be more like pulse storms. Main event is starting early Saturday AM and then likely again early Sunday AM.

[DoctorMu]

Saturday

No surprise. The trough will dig hard. I think the MCS/line of showers will move through in the wee hours of Saturday, so I don't expect the threat that West of I-35 and LA will see.

[DoctorMu]

hrrr_ref_frzn_us_31.png

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Mesos are migrating toward some hard rain.

[Cpv17]

Any chance this rain holds off until later tomorrow afternoon, going to a friends moms funeral from 12-2pm

I went 20% tomorrow for Southeast Texas. There could be some showers in the Houston area tomorrow afternoon, but it should be more like pulse storms. Main event is starting early Saturday AM and then likely again early Sunday AM.

I’m beginning to become more interested in Saturday night now vs Saturday morning. Looks like we should get a big break in between each event so if anyone has outdoor plans during the late morning to early evening hours, it should be fine.

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[Cromagnum]

Jamaica in for a very bad time.

[tireman4]

This Weekend and Beyond...

[tireman4]

Forecast Model

[tireman4]

Travis Herzog

[tireman4]

Flood Watch Hoisted

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner

[DoctorMu]

Incoming.

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Discussion 2176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Areas affected...Parts of Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 250556Z - 250730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue spreading east-southeastward to the Texas Coast through the early morning hours. Damaging winds gusts are the main concern, though a brief/embedded tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KEWX shows an MCS tracking east-southeastward at around 40 kt across parts of south-central TX. While the leading-line updrafts have decreased in intensity over the last hour or so, the well-established cold pool and moist pre-convective air mass continues to support embedded damaging wind gusts -- especially with any embedded mesovortex structures (i.e., north/south-oriented portions of the line) in the near term.

With time, the MCS will continue tracking east-southeastward to the TX Coast through the early morning hours. Around 40 kt of line-orthogonal effective shear and a moist/moderately unstable downstream air mass will continue to support a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief/embedded tornado risk -- aided by a modest/gradually strengthening low-level jet and related low-level hodograph curvature. A watch will likely be issued within the hour for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Smith.. 10/25/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

[Pas_Bon]

Severe TStorm Warning all over metro area

[DoctorMu]

0.86 inches of rain here. The ground soaked it up like it was nothing.

[Cromagnum]

1.7 inches here in Georgetown and we are supposed to get a 2nd wave this evening. Hoping for a double up.

[DoctorMu]

The latest.

The atmosphere looks pretty worked over for now, and we have NW winds above Hwy 1*5... but some strong but isolated cells are developing west of San Antonio.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Round 2 firing up and looking strong

[DoctorMu]

Just enough daytime heating.

It's GO time.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected later
today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts and localized flash
flooding are the primary concerns. Locally more intense
thunderstorms capable of hail and a tornado or a concern as
well.

- Flood Watch remains in effect through 4AM.


- Strong cold front pushes through the region Tuesday night,
bringing much cooler temperatures and strong coastal / offshore
winds in its wake.

- Mariners be advised of hazardous marine conditions today-
tonight, and again behind the cold front Tuesday night -
Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

The storms from earlier have pushed well offshore, leaving us in
a more stable and cooler air mass as of midday. Some locations in
our northern counties have yet to hit 70 degrees thanks to
persistent clouds and lingering isolated to widely scattered
shower activity. One would think that the atmosphere may be
overworked, limiting or even preventing further convection. And
yet, the CAMs are insistent that another round of showers and
thunderstorms, some potentially strong/heavy, will push through
the region later today and into tonight. It`s easy to question
how much deep convection we can conjure in this environment. But
once one takes a gander at GOES imagery, one can see a strongly
diffluent and sheared mid/upper pattern ahead of a mid/upper low
centered near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Therefore, the
situation remains quite dynamic in the middle and upper levels of
the atmosphere. In addition, LL instability is expected to creep
up later in the day. So I tend to believe the convective scenario
depicted by the CAMs.

Through much of the afternoon, widely scattered showers and maybe
an isolated thunderstorm are expected across SE Texas. But by the
3-5 PM time frame, we suspect deeper convection will be developing
just west and north of our CWA. These storms are expected to push
east to southeast into our region by late afternoon or early
evening as a strong jet ejects into SE Texas. HRRR 0-6 KM bulk
shear is quite impressive, showing values of 50-70 knots. A
strongly veering wind profile has me concerned for discrete,
rotating convection. 0-1 km shear may be lacking. But the 0-3 km
environment is quite sheared and helical. If we can boost LL CAPE
like the fcst suggest, then we will likely have heavy
thunderstorms, some of which will be capable of damaging wind
gusts, hail, and perhaps even a tornado. Regarding timing, our
forecast leans towards the HRRR, which shows the best chance of
thunderstorms being between 6PM-9PM in the Brazos Valley and our
northern counties, 9PM to 11PM I-10 and Houston Metro, and 11PM to
1AM at the Coast. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern
again. Localized flash flooding also possible.

The tumultuous side of the system exits the region on Sunday.
Perhaps the one wild card is that the SE Texas atmosphere will
continue to feel the influence of the mid/upper low in the form of
colder air aloft. So perhaps we shouldn`t rule out a passing
shower or storm on Sunday. The system moves farther east on
Monday, likely rendering our region dry. Sunday / Monday temps are
expected to average in the low 80s for highs and low/mid 60s for
lows.

As we approach the end of October, the Pacific North American
(PNA) oscillation is expected to amplify into a strongly positive
phase, favoring a building ridge over western North America and
increased troughing farther east. This would tend to support stronger
cold fronts over our neck of the woods. The signal is reflected
in the guidance, indicating a strong cold front that pushes
through Tuesday night, bringing MUCH cooler temperatures in its
wake. Scattered showers and isolated storms are possible ahead of
the front. But the big story will be the fall-like temps, as well
as the strong winds at the coast and offshore. On Wednesday and
Thursday, many southeast Texas locations could have high
temperatures that struggle to reach 70 degrees, with overnight
lows falling into the 40s to low 50s. The current blend used in
our temperature grids suggest a few spots in our northern Piney
Woods counties could even drop into the upper 30s! That`s pretty
cold in these parts! So brace yourselves.....fall is coming.

Self

[DoctorMu]

Nice line of showers developing south of Hwy 1*5.