January 2026

[Rip76]

Hilarious.
These forecasts are atrocious.

[Cpv17]

Hilarious.
These forecasts are atrocious.

It’s the models. Disturbances moving outta Mexico are very hard to see and forecast for us.

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

[DoctorMu]

A reverse bust around the Woodlands.

For your entertainment value...the Ghost of Winters Yet to Come...

About 10-14 days from now...

[Brazoriatx979]

A reverse bust around the Woodlands.

For your entertainment value...the Ghost of Winters Yet to Come...

About 10-14 days from now...

Show that to me again when it's not 300 plus hrs out lol

[snowman65]

Screenshot_20260113_145116_Chrome.jpg

(824.59 KiB) Not downloaded yet

GFS is on drugs again...

[Cpv17]

If the MJO goes into P7 then I’ll have more confidence about it.

[Brazoriatx979]

Well Herzog just posted this...


COLD PATTERN DEVELOPING
I'm finally seeing some reliable long range signals that arctic air may hit Texas head on the last week of January. A "blocking ridge" of high pressure will steadily build toward Alaska over the next week, forcing the tropospheric polar vortex and a lot of arctic air southward into Canada.

Here in Houston, we will get a series of cold fronts in rapid succession between now and MLK Day, and then the temperatures may thaw for several days before the arctic air plunges in. It's too soon to tell precisely when and how we'll be impacted, so this is just an early heads up that odds are growing the pattern will turn significantly colder the last week of January.

Another reason to believe this is the real deal? The American Meteorological Society is coming to Houston the last week of January for their annual meeting, and this conference historically has a tendency to overlap with wintry events whenever it comes to Texas. All that weather nerd energy must distort the atmosphere in ways we just can't comprehend at this time.

More to come in the days ahead.

Full forecast: abc13.com/forecast

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m not sold on it yet, but my wife was commenting on the mildness of this Winter, and I told her it has an very ominous 2021 feel to it, if in fact we do the flip the pattern to a colder/stormier regime.

I am by no means forecasting a 2021 event, but IF the pattern flips and in the manner the long range models are showing (MJO progression, ridge placement and overall PNA flip) then we could see a very violent cold flip as we turn the page to February.

With all of that said, warmth in Winter tends to beget warmth overall, but I’m at least hopeful at this point that the page could potentially turn and turn with a fury.

[Cpv17]

I’m not sold on it yet, but my wife was commenting on the mildness of this Winter, and I told her it has an very ominous 2021 feel to it, if in fact we do the flip the pattern to a colder/stormier regime.

I am by no means forecasting a 2021 event, but IF the pattern flips and in the manner the long range models are showing (MJO progression, ridge placement and overall PNA flip) then we could see a very violent cold flip as we turn the page to February.

With all of that said, warmth in Winter tends to beget warmth overall, but I’m at least hopeful at this point that the page could potentially turn and turn with a fury.

I’m not sold yet either. Been burned too many times this winter.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m not sold on it yet, but my wife was commenting on the mildness of this Winter, and I told her it has an very ominous 2021 feel to it, if in fact we do the flip the pattern to a colder/stormier regime.

I am by no means forecasting a 2021 event, but IF the pattern flips and in the manner the long range models are showing (MJO progression, ridge placement and overall PNA flip) then we could see a very violent cold flip as we turn the page to February.

With all of that said, warmth in Winter tends to beget warmth overall, but I’m at least hopeful at this point that the page could potentially turn and turn with a fury.

I’m not sold yet either. Been burned too many times this winter.

Mine isn’t a feelings approach, just a precedent approach on established patterns. 2021 was much like this though….

[Ptarmigan]

I’m not sold on it yet, but my wife was commenting on the mildness of this Winter, and I told her it has an very ominous 2021 feel to it, if in fact we do the flip the pattern to a colder/stormier regime.

I am by no means forecasting a 2021 event, but IF the pattern flips and in the manner the long range models are showing (MJO progression, ridge placement and overall PNA flip) then we could see a very violent cold flip as we turn the page to February.

With all of that said, warmth in Winter tends to beget warmth overall, but I’m at least hopeful at this point that the page could potentially turn and turn with a fury.

Same here. Winter forecast is rather complex.

[Brazoriatx979]

well the 00z lost the cold air and sends it east and southeast..has highs in the 60s lol.. its all hype thats all it is

[sambucol]

Watch the models today and see what they show.

[Cpv17]

I still think it’s gonna be a few more days till the models get a better grip on things. Operationals are completely useless past a week out. I wouldn’t put much stock in them at all.

[tireman4]

This is Meteorologist Avery Tomasco..


In a normal world, I wouldn't even pay much personal attention to a forecast 2+ weeks in advance, let alone post about it publicly... However, in the wake of at least two catastrophic winter weather events in Texas/Central Texas in the last 5 years that have everyone on edge, and with the new era of for-profit, disaster-porn clickbait getting shared like wildfire on social media, I feel inclined to add my two cents to the noise and offer as much clarity as the science allows.
With all of that in mind, you either have or will soon hear some noise about a LATE January threat for our coldest temps of the season and perhaps some wintry weather in the mix. Here's what we know.
As of today (January 14th), the weather pattern has already shifted with a piece of the polar vortex over the Great Lakes sending several shots of cold air to the eastern U.S over the next week. Texas will NOT see severe winter impacts from those fronts, but it will get chillier at times.
That cold front parade likely comes to and end by the end of next week and next weekend (January 21-25 or so) with solid stretch of above-average temperatures returning to Texas along the way.
The forecast thereafter will then hinge upon a *potential* shift in the upper-level pattern in the final week of January. There will at the very least be a potent batch of Arctic air loading up in southern/southwestern Canada heading into the final week of January, and that's general area for us to watch for significant cold snaps.
**IF** a piece of the polar vortex can break free and head southward somewhere over the Central/Western U.S thereafter, then this cold air would have an easier/more likely path towards Texas sometime in the final days of the month. Some of our way-too-long-range data has been hinting at this in the last couple of days, but continues to vary WIDELY with how significant that piece of the vortex will be and where it wants to go.
So, at this point, it's a big ol' "who knows" with the caveat being that there is at least *some* support for a weather pattern that supports a big cold blast in the southern U.S, and this is also the time of year (late January into February) when a deep freeze becomes a bit more likely for Texas. We simply won't have any handle of what could happen in late January for another week or two or if it will even happen at all, but again, I'm posting this to stay ahead of the noise. You're going to come across some Very Scary Maps (VSMs) that feature cherry-picked long-range data showing some flavor of extreme cold, ice, or snow. Please continue to ignore those posts and block pages that are sharing it without proper context; they are still looking to profit from the general anxiety of Texans following previous winter disasters.
That's all for now. Leave HEB alone!!

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

[DoctorMu]

Well Herzog just posted this...


COLD PATTERN DEVELOPING
I'm finally seeing some reliable long range signals that arctic air may hit Texas head on the last week of January. A "blocking ridge" of high pressure will steadily build toward Alaska over the next week, forcing the tropospheric polar vortex and a lot of arctic air southward into Canada.

Here in Houston, we will get a series of cold fronts in rapid succession between now and MLK Day, and then the temperatures may thaw for several days before the arctic air plunges in. It's too soon to tell precisely when and how we'll be impacted, so this is just an early heads up that odds are growing the pattern will turn significantly colder the last week of January.

Another reason to believe this is the real deal? The American Meteorological Society is coming to Houston the last week of January for their annual meeting, and this conference historically has a tendency to overlap with wintry events whenever it comes to Texas. All that weather nerd energy must distort the atmosphere in ways we just can't comprehend at this time.

More to come in the days ahead.

Full forecast: abc13.com/forecast

Nice. Another perfect day in CLL.

Seasonable temps and good, sunny weather through Tuesday before any alleged fun begins.

[Brazoriatx979]

not looking like fun, think travis may have egg on his face lol latest runs have that air going east of us...again

[DoctorMu]

The models and Ensembles are pretty consistent with an Eastward bias on the shots of cold air. I don't see a warmup or 2021 after that. Seasonable with a few fronts/freezes after a series of glancing vortex blow slide by.