January 2026

[Brazoriatx979]

ya, hope for better luck next yr

[sambucol]

In my humble opinion, it seems that the model runs for the end of January are too far out in hours to decide whether or not cold air is coming. At this point in time, it's not set in stone. It's a wait and see. Not winter cancel.

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t write anything in stone over a few runs of models 10+ days out.

[Cpv17]

A freeze is now expected this weekend.

[DoctorMu]

Probably a light freeze tonight and Saturday night IMFY.

[Stratton20]

GFS and Euro have light snow in se texas this saturday night

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

[tireman4]

From NTWX at S2K....Heights have risen in Alaska. As I stated, they have had a brutal winter. Absolutely brutal winter and for them, that is saying something

[Brazoriatx979]

and how does that affect us here

[MontgomeryCoWx]

and how does that affect us here

Seriously? We only talk about it every winter here.

High heights in Alaska = - EPO

-EPO is our main driver for cold air down here.

[Brazoriatx979]

and how does that affect us here

Seriously? We only talk about it every winter here.

High heights in Alaska = - EPO

-EPO is our main driver for cold air down here.

my bad. I figured that had to do more with the PNA

[MontgomeryCoWx]

and how does that affect us here

Seriously? We only talk about it every winter here.

High heights in Alaska = - EPO

-EPO is our main driver for cold air down here.

my bad. I figured that had to do more with the PNA

PNA is a secondary variable to HOW COLD we get, but without a -EPO we get Pacific air and mild temps.

A neutral or slightly negative/positive PNA is good for us. A heavily negative or positive PNA focuses the core of the cold in the West (negative) or East (positive).

[Cpv17]

and how does that affect us here

Seriously? We only talk about it every winter here.

High heights in Alaska = - EPO

-EPO is our main driver for cold air down here.

my bad. I figured that had to do more with the PNA

A negative EPO is higher heights near Alaska, which loads our source region with cold. The PNA will decide which way that cold will go. -PNA goes west, neutral central U.S., +PNA goes east.

[tireman4]

From NTWX at S2K....Heights have risen in Alaska. As I stated, they have had a brutal winter. Absolutely brutal winter and for them, that is saying something

I am sorry. I should have specified what this might or might not mean. CPV and Montgomery County explained what could happen. The more negative the PNA, the better chances the source region "might" affect our weather.

[tireman4]

https://theeyewall.substack.com/p/south ... dium=email

[Brazoriatx979]

Dumb question but I'll ask it anyway and get called out later for it. Has this winter been kind of lackluster due to it being la Nina? Would a el Nino have better results for us?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Dumb question but I'll ask it anyway and get called out later for it. Has this winter been kind of lackluster due to it being la Nina? Would a el Nino have better results for us?

Traditionally, and take that word to heart, La Niña winters are warmer and drier, but can offer some of the wildest cold snaps.

El Niño winters typically offer up cool and rainy conditions, but we don’t usually get the crazy polar plunges. Your winter events in El Niños tend to be of the ice nature here. We get more snow events in La Niña winters if we can squeeze some precip out of the sky.

I prefer Modoki El Niño weather where we rarely see 70 and our average highs hover in the 50s with lows in the 30s/40s and consistent cloudy conditions with precip 1-2x a week. Then the occasional NW flow delivers an impulse that will drop some freezing rain and sleet.

That’s how I remember High School in Longview. It’s not very different for HGX. Maybe a tad warmer.

[snowman65]

a little throw back to this day in 2018..

[wxdude]

Went to Cancun today and the cold front that went through Houston yesterday went through here. Northwest winds gusting to 30 and 63 here now. The pools wasn’t great today.

[Ptarmigan]

Seriously? We only talk about it every winter here.

High heights in Alaska = - EPO

-EPO is our main driver for cold air down here.

my bad. I figured that had to do more with the PNA

PNA is a secondary variable to HOW COLD we get, but without a -EPO we get Pacific air and mild temps.

A neutral or slightly negative/positive PNA is good for us. A heavily negative or positive PNA focuses the core of the cold in the West (negative) or East (positive).

I think of the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) of the East Pacific. EPO can produce freeze, even when NAO is positive.