New Year's Eve Weather

[redneckweather]

That discussion will definitely make me keep my bags un-packed. lol Thanks srain.

[wxman57]

All I see for New Year's Eve is another frontal passage, weaker than the one over Christmas, with perhaps a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms moving through Friday evening. Wednesday looks like the interesting day. The 00Z GFS predicts about 1.5" of rain:



The 06Z GFS predicts over 2 inches of rain:

[srainhoutx]

HPC Medium Range Updated Prelim discussion goes just beyond New Years Eve, but brings up some interesting reasons why the GFS and its ensembles should be disregarded for now...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
853 AM EST TUE DEC 28 2010

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 01 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 04 2011

CURRENT MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT LONGWAVE AGREEMENT DAYS 3-7 WITH THE
POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION STRENGTHENING
WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TOWARD ONTARIO/QUEBEC...RESULTING IN A POSITIVELY-TILTED
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE
00-06Z GFS ARE SUSPICIOUSLY FAST AND OUT OF SYNC WITH OTHER
GUIDANCE WITH THE BASE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN MODELING DIFFERENCES CONCERN THE
SPLITTING FLOW REACHING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY DAYS 4/5 WITH
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 00-06Z GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS (BOTH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS) CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
AT TIMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN. OF
PARTICULAR IMPORTANCE IS A SECONDARY CUT-OFF LOW CONSTITUTING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH STANDS TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO
PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. THE EXACT POSITION/TIMING OF THE LOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO THE INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD...AND
FOR NOW HAVE CHOSEN AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION WHICH CONSIDERS ALL
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE...OR ON AVERAGE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN. THUS...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS BLENDED
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN NOT USED.

[redneckweather]

A very boring discussion out of Tulsa this morning so no snow chase this go around. The kids go back to school next week so probably no snow chase the rest of the winter season. I guess we are gonna have to hope for snow here at the house. hahahahahhahaha!!!!!!!!

[srainhoutx]

As suspected, things are progressing abit slower than previously though. HGX is lowering chances for today and tonight, but tomorrow could get interesting...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281739 AAA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2010

.UPDATE...
AFTER TAKING A SECOND LOOK AT THE MODELS FOR TONIGHT...DECIDED TO
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
NOW FORECAST TO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF SE TX. THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR TONIGHT.
SECOND UPDATE FORTHCOMING.

[srainhoutx]

There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the New Years Eve front via guidance. The GFS continues to be on the faster side of the solutions, while the Euro is about 6-12 hours slower. There also is some concern that the storm currently nearing N California may dig deeper S than is forecast at this time before making the turn to the NE into the Central/Northern Plains. Also some questions still arise concerning a trailing Upper Low and how that will fit into the mix. Of note is Tucson, AZ is expecting snow and freezing temps denoting the cold nature of these systems. Infact at this hour there are Winter Watches/Warnings from the Canadian border S to the Mexican border. With the volatility via guidance, a cautious approach is the theme of the day from various NWS offices regarding frontal timing, rain chances and how quickly things will clear out after the front. Sound familiar? Just last weekend there was tremendous volatility in the guidance regarding the East Coast winter storm. It is a bit clearer that tomorrow could be a very active and interesting day for Central and East TX into LA. I would not be surprised to see some severe surface based storms fire near the Coastal regions and elevated storms further north. The Upper Air disturbance is rather strong and the dynamics associated will need to be watched closely overnight into tomorrow morning.

[wxman57]

Euro is now in good agreement with the GFS regarding the New Year's Eve front. Both now move the weak front through by around 3PM Friday, with precip ending shortly after. Not much rain indicated. Today's the day with all the "action". However, new GFS indicates only about an inch of rain vs. around 2 inches in yesterday's runs.

Might be able to ride our bikes downtown for the festivities at Discovery Green.

Nothing very exciting over the next 8-10 days:

[svrwx0503]

Currently keeping my eye on the area of strong storms located across southern Jackson and northwestern Matagorda counties at this time. This storm cluster is moving off to the northeast and looks to be capable of producing some strong, but so far sub-severe winds. Latest mesoanalysis and morning soundings indicate pw's AOA 1.3'' with decent low level shear. So far the limiting factor for severe weather has been lack of quality moisture return; however we should continue to see things moisten up slowly through the morning which will help increase low level instability. Still think we could see an severe storm or two today with the greatest threat along and east of US 59. Looks like an interesting day!

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the update Matt. Keep us informed. I have a busy day today and will be away, so if any watches/warnings start to be hoisted, let's get those up and keep those observations coming folks.

[svrwx0503]

Very strong vertical motion fields across southeast Texas this morning helping produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. Locally heavy rainfall a definite possibility as storms are starting to align southwest to northeast along the US 59 corridor. This is a classic setup for heavy rain totals across the area. As I am typing this a severe thunderstorm warning has just been issued for Matagorda and Wharton counties until 1015am. Low level shear continues to increase across the region; however the lack of surface based instability has been limiting the tornado threat so far this morning. Strong low level moisture transport and pws AOA 1.3-1.4'' will support the heavy rain threat through the rest of the morning.

[biggerbyte]

One inch rain totals will be common, with some areas along 59 getting 2+ with training. Severe weather may be limited, but not heavy rain. Folks in Harris and Montgomery Counties, with surrounding areas sw and ne should watch for heavy rainfall. Areas east of that later on tonight.

[svrwx0503]

Urban and small stream flood advisory for Wharton county until 1215pm. Watch out for flooding of your typical low lying spots and areas of poor drainage. We could see some areas of high water in your typical spots across the metro area later this morning as heavier rain moves in from the southwest.

[harpman]

Wow, you guys needed your rain! Be careful what you wish for!

[svrwx0503]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1039 AM CST WED DEC 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CST

* AT 1033 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF NEEDVILLE TO 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOLING-IAGO TO MARKHAM...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHARTON TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF WHARTON TO 10 MILES WEST OF BAY CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK...WEST COLUMBIA...VAN VLECK...
SUGAR LAND...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PLEAK...PECAN GROVE...MISSOURI
CITY AND FIRST COLONY.

[svrwx0503]

Lightning is increasing with the storms approaching from the southwest. Damaging winds look to be the main threat with the Wharton county storms; however some weak rotation has been showing up over the past 10 min or so. Watch out across southern Fort Bend and northwestern Brazoria counties that is where radar is indicating the greatest risk for high wind.

The storms continue to look rather impressive on radar with a bow echo starting to take shape across eastern Wharton county. Very tight reflectivity gradient noted along the leading edge line which is indicative of strong straight-line wind potential.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST WED DEC 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291650Z - 291745Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL LIKELY EXIST
ACROSS SE TX LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN SE TX ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE TX COAST. SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S F AT CORPUS
CHRISTI TO AROUND 60 F JUST SOUTH OF THE HOUSTON AREA WHERE A
SHORT-LINE SEGMENT IS ONGOING. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD
ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MAY INTENSIFY CONTINUING
THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF A
40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS JET IS ENHANCING LIFT AND WILL HELP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE NEWD INTO THE HOUSTON AND BEAUMONT AREAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CREATING ENOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR STORM
ROTATION. THUS...A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE TX.

..BROYLES.. 12/29/2010


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

[sambucol]

What's the weather going to be tonight around 7pm? When is the weather possibly going to be severe in SE Texas?

[srainhoutx]

Lightning increasing in NW Harris County at this time. I would not be surprise to see a new Severe T Storm Warning issued for Harris County shortly.

[biggerbyte]

You will see pockets of severe storms, with many getting strong storms and heavy rainfall. What a way to change our boring pattern.. No?

[srainhoutx]

Severe T Storm Warning for Brazoria, Ft Bend, Matagorda & Wharton Counties allowed to expire.