January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Ptarmigan]

Some parts of Alaska are warmer than some parts of the Lower 48 and even Texas!

[redneckweather]

Remember everyone this doesn't exactly mean wxman is predicting this to happen. I think he is just throwing that out there and with the cold air already building in Canada I can see why he would have more confidence then last time.

He didn't throw anything anywhere with this week's arctic front.

[biggerbyte]

Hmmm! There is a blip of precip. on radar just off to the wsw.

[sean]

Wxman57, it pains my wallet in paying those gigantic heating bills every time mother nature pulls a cruel trick on us via an Arctic outbreak.
Let us pray this possible surge near the 20th will be the last of this season.
I'm looking forward to an early spring.

Well with a gas furnace my most expensive electricity + nat gas bill last winter was about half (maybe a couple of dollars more than half) of my most expensive electric bill this past summer...and that's with a electric rate of $0.092/kWh, which isn't that bad.

I'll take those "gigantic" heating bills any day over the cost to run my rather efficient (16 SEER) A/C in August/September.

[Mr. Weather]

Hmmm! There is a blip of precip. on radar just off to the wsw.

what radar are u looking at ? wheres it headed ?

[Andrew]

Hmmm GFS says lets drive the cold down here:

[Andrew]

But then moves east....

[biggerbyte]

I am on an iPhone using a mobile application to view the radar. There is not much to it. You are not missing anything.

[Baseballdude2915]

Hmmm! There is a blip of precip. on radar just off to the wsw.

what radar are u looking at ? wheres it headed ?

Oh my word... looking at the NWS Radar seems like some precip moving into SW Houston here in a bit... Probably too light to reach the ground. Any professional opinion on what is being shown on the radar?

[Andrew]

GFS is opening the doors and says let the cold come

[Andrew]

Hmmm! There is a blip of precip. on radar just off to the wsw.

what radar are u looking at ? wheres it headed ?

Oh my word... looking at the NWS Radar seems like some precip moving into SW Houston here in a bit... Probably too light to reach the ground. Any professional opinion on what is being shown on the radar?

Not prof here but a couple of things to consider here:

1. The moisture is so light that most likely it is not hitting the ground. With the ridge to the north of us and dew points in the teens its pretty dry.
2. Any moisture right now (around the Houston metro area) would be sleet.

So I wouldn't stay up for it....

[Mr. Weather]

Not prof here but a couple of things to consider here:

1. The moisture is so light that most likely it is not hitting the ground. With the ridge to the north of us and dew points in the teens its pretty dry.
2. Any moisture right now (around the Houston metro area) would be sleet.

So I wouldn't stay up for it....[/quote]





thanks for the heads up !!!

[TexasMetBlake]

With dewpoints in the mid teens across the area, you'd have a better chance of seeing Elvis. Goodnight. LOL.

[hlewis]

we have VERY light sleet in louise, tx, at 6:39 am.

[PaulEInHouston]

we have VERY light sleet in louise, tx, at 6:39 am.

Morning...yeah, see some returns down your way on radar. Looks like a small area moving around the trof axis offshore. Areas South/SW of Houston might see some light sleet if lucky as well. I've moved my radar on my website to see it better.

[hlewis]

we have VERY light sleet in louise, tx, at 6:39 am.

Morning...yeah, see some returns down your way on radar. Looks like a small area moving around the trof axis offshore. Areas South/SW of Houston might see some light sleet if lucky as well. I've moved my radar on my website to see it better.

hey, i'll take it!!!!!!!! this cold weather isn't worth it unless we have some sort of solid falling out of the sky, even if it's in tiny amounts

[PaulEInHouston]

we have VERY light sleet in louise, tx, at 6:39 am.

Morning...yeah, see some returns down your way on radar. Looks like a small area moving around the trof axis offshore. Areas South/SW of Houston might see some light sleet if lucky as well. I've moved my radar on my website to see it better.

hey, i'll take it!!!!!!!! this cold weather isn't worth it unless we have some sort of solid falling out of the sky, even if it's in tiny amounts

Man, I'm with you there for sure Looks like it's moving from W to E/SE. I'm in League City and crossing fingers for a pellet or two here, lol. Composite reflectivity and .5 Base shows precip returns the best, although most probably not reaching the ground.

[wxman57]

Overnight models (CMC/Euro) have backed away from much indication of more Arctic air down here next week. Doesn't mean it can't happen, it's still just a possibility of what may happen next week. The difference I see compared to Tuesday's front is that this surge of cold air may move south ahead of the trof axis. This would put cold and perhaps sub-freezing air in place with precip falling. Now I'm not talking about HERE, I'm thinking up in north TX and OK eastward. Such setups can result in a large area of freezing rain. An ice storm, basically. Again, up north, not in Houston. Just another possibility.

For now, my FORECAST would be that we will see another cold front next week that may drop our temps to the lower 30s.

[sleetstorm]

How is the temperature going to warm up into the forties with cloud cover blocking all of the sunlight?

[srainhoutx]

I tend to agree, wxman57. The main challenge will be the Upper Low depicted to our W. Where have we seen this before (last weekend)? The trough axis could certainly be deeper into the Great Basin and across the Rockies and the amount of W Coast Ridging (+pna) will be a big key and where that ridging sets up. Our neighbors along the E Coast will also likely 'warm up' (some hints of SE Ridging) for the first time in a while. Definitely worth watching as the operation models struggle with the Pacific Pattern and how the MJO pulse affects our sensible weather. The ensembles suggest things are pushed a bit further W than the operational models now show.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION IN SECOND
PARAGRAPH
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
746 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 17 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 20 2011

...HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE ENGULFING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND TROUGHING MID-CONTINENT...WHICH WILL GENERALLY LINE UP UNDER
THE BASE OF A POLAR VORTEX WAXING AND WANING ACROSS NUNAVUT. THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE GENERAL IDEAS.
DETAIL-WISE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS OUT PHASE WITH THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SYSTEM
CROSSING CANADA FROM MONDAY ONWARD...ENDING UP WITH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION...SO DID NOT USE ITS SOLUTION. THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
WERE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...AND DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. USED A COMPROMISE OF
THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD
TO GET MORE REALISTIC PRESSURES...THOUGH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE
MOVED BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SURFACE LOWS WHICH SLOWED DOWN THE
LOW/FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED OVER THE GEFS
MEAN FOR PRESSURE VERIFICATION REASONS. THIS KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH OUR PREVIOUS DAY OF SOLUTIONS.

THIS SOLUTION SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WET INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES WHICH
SHOULD WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE STORM TRACK/UPPER
TROUGH SETS UP FARTHER WEST THAN SEEN OVER THE PAST SIX
WEEKS...WHICH COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE JANUARY THAW.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE CYCLONE
CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH AND EAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN THAN SNOW WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
EAST...THOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER
WEST/INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

ROTH