February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[srainhoutx]

12Z UKMET has the cold air heading S as well as an Upper Level Low (to our NW) heading in...

[srainhoutx]

HPC not buying the Euro/Canadian solution...for now...Final Update...

12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR THE SPECIFIC
DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS BEYOND WHAT WAS CONSIDERED THIS MORNING. BY DAY
4...TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARE AS MUCH AS 12
HRS...WITH THE NEW ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE
UKMET/CANADIAN ONLY WIDEN THE SOLUTION SPREAD. THUS...CONTINUITY
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH THESE 2 SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES OVER THE
CONUS THEN DIMINISH DAYS 5/6...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE LARGE
SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...
THIS IS NOT THE CASE OVER THE PACIFIC...WHERE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS EXIST. THEN BY DAY 7...THE
NEW ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PHASING OF
INDIVIDUAL STREAMS OVER THE CENTRAL CONSES...WHICH RESULTS IN A
SIGNIFICANT LOW EXITING THE PLAINS...THAT IF TRUE...WOULD RESULT
IN A CONSIDERABLE WARMING/MOISTENING TREND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. BUT WITH THE GFS/GEFS MEAN NOT PHASED AND THUS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ALONG WITH TELECONNECTIONS WHICH FAVORS THEM...THE
CHOICE REMAINS TO LEAN AWAY FROM ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE
MOMENT.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[randybpt]

Looks like the coldest air will move more to our NE. Im leaning on this just be a couple light freezes.

[TexasMetBlake]

Time to start monitoring the discussions now. You know the gfs and euro are very different. One of them is right and it appears the gfs may be trying to break for the Euro?

Dallas:

NEXT THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD ARCTIC AIR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PERSISTENTLY SHOWN A PRETTY
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROF
THEN PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY. INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS...HAVE KEPT PRECIP AS RAIN AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
TENDENCY FOR MODEL GUIDANCE TO SOMETIMES OVERDO WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. WILL WATCH HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[TexasMetBlake]

Norman:


COOLER TEMPS...CLOSER TO NORMAL... WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN SOUTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA... AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PRECIP POSSIBLE. THE PRECIP THEN
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE FA. MEANWHILE... THE GFS DOES ALSO SHOW SOME COLD AIR
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY BUT HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST OR
AT LEAST IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA UNTIL MON NIGHT AND TUES WHEN
IT FINALLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FA AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE DIFFERENCES/INCONSISTENCIES
HAVE LOW POPS IN THROUGH MONDAY THEN WILL KEEP DRY PAST THAT TIME
FOR NOW. WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME... HAVE A MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST.

[TexasMetBlake]

Kansas City:

OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF/GEM
DIVERGE WITH THE LATTER TWO PROGS DEPICTING A FASTER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. FOLLOWING THEIR
SOLUTION MAKES IT NECESSARY TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A
PRONOUNCED UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MONDAY WITH AN
INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL AND A LARGE
INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR CHANNELING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. GFS
SHOWS NO SUCH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR ARRIVING SOONER AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MS AND MID MO VALLEYS. WITH VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER FRIDAY
FAVOR MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SURGE INTO THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[jasons2k]

It'll be interesting to see how it unfolds, but that looks to me like a worse freeze threat for Florida than for Texas (sorry, I watch these events for a different reason!). I hope the worst of it pushes east.

[vci_guy2003]

Just rain in the Dallas forecast!? Gross. If they can't even get winter precip, then we shoot outta luck for life. I think they are they UNDERESTIMATE the winter precip.

[sleetstorm]

I think that getting a direct hit from this feasbile arctic surge would be terrific as long as everyone readies themselves for it.

[srainhoutx]

Austin/San Antonio:

FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS. THE CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DYNAMICS
PASSING NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BRINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A COOL AIRMASS FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE LARGER MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD MAKE FOR A
DRIER AIRMASS WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WHILE THE
GFS WOULD ALLOW FOR A COLD RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS. SHOULD THE COLD AIR
INDICATED BY THE LARGER MODEL CONSENSUS MATERIALIZE ALONG WITH THE
WESTERN POSITION OF THE TROUGH BY THE GFS...THEN THERE WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION. HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MEX
POPS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR SUNDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE WARMER THAN MEX SATURDAY NIGHT DUE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS...THEN COLDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY DUE STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

[cristina99]

I've been out of the loop since before lunch. So, what are the models telling us? Warm air, cold air? I was hoping for a little wintry precip.

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI: The 12Z Euro Ensembles are further W than the Operation version...

[harpman]

Is the 18Z GFS finished running?

[Andrew]

Is the 18Z GFS finished running?

[wxman666]

Thought some of y'all might be interested in reading this.

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

[Andrew]

Thought some of y'all might be interested in reading this.

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

Ok now I understand what y'all were saying last night.

[srainhoutx]

Thought some of y'all might be interested in reading this.

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

Ok now I understand what y'all were saying last night.

Me too. I was lost reading all that this morning...

[biggerbyte]

Hmmm! Yes, I agree that the sarcasm in his blog about his forecast, vs. others is a bit much. It was bad last time, but even worse this time. I'm not sure why he feels the need to do that, other than a ratings grabber for the station. However, as I said last night, there has been a lot of hype this cold season. Way too much, as a matter of fact. The public does not need the sarcasm to function, but it does need the truth. The truth is, we can expect the same from this event that we got from the last one. Heller was right on before, and he is right on this time too. I just wish he would tone it down a bit. One can be good, and one can be right, but we don't have to be rude about it.

Mr. Heller, please clean up the tone of your blog? Just get to the point. No?

[wxman666]

Thought some of y'all might be interested in reading this.

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

Ok now I understand what y'all were saying last night.

Lol. Yeah. There's certainly no need for sarcasm and trash talking.

[vci_guy2003]

I do agree with Tim that some of the reporting at the Chronicle is a joke. The only guy with any sense there is Eric Berger.
I love the tone.. it gets the heart racing!