biggerbyte wrote:Yes, I know. I just want the local guys and gals to realize that our forecast may be very different than what folks in Dallas might see. It would be sad to get someones hopes up thinking that this or that is going to happen here.
So much potential for all of Texas. Some more than others. Gosh, it is going to be so disappointing if our area is left out of the fun.... Again! Come on the weekend.
If Louisiana people are allowed over here than SURELY Dallas people are
My intent of posting what our local mets are forecasting is to give people an idea of what may/may not be possible in Houston. wxman and others may disagree, but you can get somewhat of an idea as to how cold Houston may get based on how cold Dallas is expected to get (just like how we can keep an eye on OKC).
Alright folks. We have a full plate. The weekend looks wet and then... The NAM should shed some light on the possible events ahead. It's great to see the interest again and nearing the 1 year anniversary of the new platform (2/3). Who knows, AZ.? Perhaps Dan has arranged a celebration.
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Hey y'all. CPC shows an interesting HWO update. Heavy "precip" outlined for the area Feb 2-3, as well as "Much below normal temps" for the entire state of TX and then some.
harpman wrote:No one ever mentioned the 18Z GFS....... Still warmer than the euro?
18z GFS was warmer than the 12z GFS. Probably why no one mentioned it. The 6z/18z runs do not include much new data from what i understand, another reason they aren't talked too much about. The 00z/12z runs are the big ones. A little under two hours until the 12z GFS runs.
Just saw TWC showing an analysis for Tue/Wed....shows a low pressure system with abundant moisture sitting over us while the arctic blast slams southward over the area.
I am new to the forum. I have always had a strong passion for weather, and I appreciate everyones input regarding past weather events as well as the present topic that is being discussed. I have been following this upcoming surge of arctic air for early next week; and there are several things that jump out at me. If you all remember this past weekend the GFS was basically showing what the Euro/Canadian models are showing now. The GFS has since backed off the brutal cold air. As we all know the GFS has a tendency to back off these events only to bring them back right before the event itself. I am very surprised that the NWS is hugging the GFS solution so much. I thing we will be in for some major forecast adjustments over the next day or so. This one is going to catch a lot of people by surprise. At the current moment the GFS is the outlier solution. If I have missed anything here feel free to correct me. FUN DAYS AHEAD!!!
Welcome to the weather family Mark. I am waiting until Sunday to see what will pan out for next week. I lived and died by models for many years......made me old
Mark25 wrote:I am new to the forum. I have always had a strong passion for weather, and I appreciate everyones input regarding past weather events as well as the present topic that is being discussed. I have been following this upcoming surge of arctic air for early next week; and there are several things that jump out at me. If you all remember this past weekend the GFS was basically showing what the Euro/Canadian models are showing now. The GFS has since backed off the brutal cold air. As we all know the GFS has a tendency to back off these events only to bring them back right before the event itself. I am very surprised that the NWS is hugging the GFS solution so much. I thing we will be in for some major forecast adjustments over the next day or so. This one is going to catch a lot of people by surprise. At the current moment the GFS is the outlier solution. If I have missed anything here feel free to correct me. FUN DAYS AHEAD!!!
Welcome Mark. I agree with you about the GFS. I have noticed that our HGX NWS has a tendency to make a last minute call a lot of times, sometimes changing the forecast the day before the event or on the day of the event (I.E; December 24, 2004). NWS FWD from what I've noticed usually seems to get a good grip on the situation a couple days before we do. Seems a lot of folks in the Houston area that I've talked to can hardly ever believe that we do get winter weather down here, and can get caught off guard especially if there isn't enough advanced warning. However, due to the infrequency of major winter storms, I am doubtful our area is equipped to handle something too severe. We shall see what happens.
biggerbyte wrote:Yes, I know. I just want the local guys and gals to realize that our forecast may be very different than what folks in Dallas might see. It would be sad to get someones hopes up thinking that this or that is going to happen here.
So much potential for all of Texas. Some more than others. Gosh, it is going to be so disappointing if our area is left out of the fun.... Again! Come on the weekend.
If Louisiana people are allowed over here than SURELY Dallas people are
My intent of posting what our local mets are forecasting is to give people an idea of what may/may not be possible in Houston. wxman and others may disagree, but you can get somewhat of an idea as to how cold Houston may get based on how cold Dallas is expected to get (just like how we can keep an eye on OKC).
Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers after midnight. Colder. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wednesday Through Thursday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs around 50. Lows in the upper 20s.
They see a freeze too looks like. Lot of uncertainty.
Mark25 wrote:I am new to the forum. I have always had a strong passion for weather, and I appreciate everyones input regarding past weather events as well as the present topic that is being discussed. I have been following this upcoming surge of arctic air for early next week; and there are several things that jump out at me. If you all remember this past weekend the GFS was basically showing what the Euro/Canadian models are showing now. The GFS has since backed off the brutal cold air. As we all know the GFS has a tendency to back off these events only to bring them back right before the event itself. I am very surprised that the NWS is hugging the GFS solution so much. I thing we will be in for some major forecast adjustments over the next day or so. This one is going to catch a lot of people by surprise. At the current moment the GFS is the outlier solution. If I have missed anything here feel free to correct me. FUN DAYS AHEAD!!!
Welcome Mark. The GFS is the model that goes up to 16 days. It tends to forecast what the Euro/Canadian does. GFS has had better track record when it comes to hurricane season. I am thinking we will see a freeze. I cannot rule out frozen rain.
Though I won't get my hopes up, I sure am liking these recent model trends.
C'mon Cypress!!