February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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wxdata
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Only AccuWx subscribers can see AccuWx graphics. When I go to my PPV site from a new computer, I have to log in, and get a cookie, to see the PPV stuff.


But if discretion is the better part of valor, well, I understand.


You are 100% correct- "Only AccuWx subscribers can see AccuWx graphics" It states such on the site. In fact one cannot even quote anything from Joe Bastardi's column. It has to be done in paraphrase form.
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Mr. T
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brazoria_county22 wrote:
Mr. T wrote:Awesome:
Plotter.png
Who knew we'd see something like this for the second time this winter season? This is easily the best winter of my life living in the Houston area. I don't know how we'll ever beat 09-10.
will b razoria county be included in this some time later on? r they just waiting for more info or is it pretty dead for us?
Only a trace of snowfall is expected that far south, so a winter weather advisory is not needed. However, you are still going to see some snow!
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Mr. T
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hlewis wrote:
Mr. T wrote:Awesome:
Plotter.png
Who knew we'd see something like this for the second time this winter season? This is easily the best winter of my life living in the Houston area. I don't know how we'll ever beat 09-10.
What does the purple stand for??
Winter weather advisory
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Mr. T
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Harris zone:

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COOLER. HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S. TEMPERATURE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN THE
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED FLURRIES LATE. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO
1 INCH. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 40 PERCENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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Who is giddy with anticipation now?
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srainhoutx
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HGX thoughts vi the afternoon AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
258 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL.

A COOL AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH AND
WARMER NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED. CHILLY AIRMASS
OVER KS/OK WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH OVER
AZ SWINGS EAST INTO NM/EXT W TX. THE 12Z MODELS ALL SWINGING THE
LEAD S/W OVER EXTREME SE AZ INTO THE NW ZONES TUESDAY MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD KICK OFF THE RAINS GIVEN THE WARM PROFILE BUT THE
PROFILE NORTH WONT HAVE TO COOL MUCH TO SWITCH TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX
THEN SNOW. DURING THE AFTERNOON EXPECTING A LARGE SWATH OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS EXPANDING SOUTH DURING THE
EVENING. VERY TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS THESE WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON THE ACCUMULATIONS...SO FOR NOW 2-4" AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO AROUND NEW WAVERLY TO LIVINGSTON LINE. SOUTH
OF THIS LINE SLUSHY WET SNOW ON GRASS TYPICALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
AS FOR THE METRO AREA RAIN/SNOW SHOULD BE GOING ON BY 4-6 PM WITH
ANY ACCUMULATIONS STICKING AFTER 10-11 PM. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 3 AM WED. IF TEMPERATURES DO
FALL TO THE EXPECTED 30-32 DEGREES IN THE ADVISORY AREA THEN ICY
BRIDGES SEEM POSSIBLE...OVER THE WARNING AREA LONGER BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CRUSTY SLUSH/ICING OF THE
ROADS. TEMPERATURES START TO RISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IF SKIES
IMPROVE AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED THEN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA
SHOULD BE BACK TO OR ABOVE FREEZING BY 9-10 AM. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GET RID OF THE MELTWATER ON
ROADS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REFREEZE
ISSUES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO BELOW FREEZING FOR THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-10.

THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES EAST
THURSDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS. THE
NEXT SURFACE LOW DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING NEAR DFW THEN SHIFTS DOWN
GALVESTON AS THE S/W INTENSIFIES. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A
CHANCE OF RA/SHRA BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AS
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ABOUND. EVEN WITH THE
DIFFERENCES SATURDAY THEY SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD ANOTHER
CHILLY RAIN EVENT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY ARE LOW.


THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICE FOR THE COORDINATION AND
COMMENTS ON THE EVENT.
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I am getting soooooo excited!!!! My son arrives from Iraq today. We are celebrating Christmas on Wednesday with him!!!!!!!!! Could almost be a white Christmas for him! How awesome is that?
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ticka1 wrote:Who is giddy with anticipation now?
yes
jabcwb2 wrote:I am getting soooooo excited!!!! My son arrives from Iraq today. We are celebrating Christmas on Wednesday with him!!!!!!!!! Could almost be a white Christmas for him! How awesome is that?
I'm not sure where you are located in the Houston area, but chances are good your son will see some snow tommorow. Good luck!!
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jabcwb2 wrote:I am getting soooooo excited!!!! My son arrives from Iraq today. We are celebrating Christmas on Wednesday with him!!!!!!!!! Could almost be a white Christmas for him! How awesome is that?
That is awesome jabcwb2 :D Thank him for his service and enjoy your time with him. ;)
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For the record, there is still ample time for things to shift around. Don't lose hope!
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Thank you all for the good wishes! We are in Gleannloch Farms, near Hooks airport, Spring, TX. I will absolutely pass on your messages. THANK YOU!
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srainhoutx wrote:
jabcwb2 wrote:I am getting soooooo excited!!!! My son arrives from Iraq today. We are celebrating Christmas on Wednesday with him!!!!!!!!! Could almost be a white Christmas for him! How awesome is that?
That is awesome jabcwb2 :D Thank him for his service and enjoy your time with him. ;)
WOW! That is awesome! Well, Merry Christmas, guys. I hope you get so much snow, it bury's your car! LOL. Good luck!
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E-mail Update from Jeff...
Major Winter Storm heading for SE TX

Significant accumulations of snow expected on Tuesday/Tuesday night over the area.

Winter Storm Warning issued for Tuesday: Brazos, Burleson, Madison, Houston, Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto, Grimes, Montgomery, Walker

Winter Weather Advisory issued from 200pm Tuesday to 600am Wednesday: Harris, Austin, Colorado, Fort Bend, Liberty, Waller, Wharton


Discussion:

Overall consensus today has been to push the snowfall and accumulations southward which now brings Harris County more under the threat for accumulations. Models are still hammering away at some fairly hefty banding features over the northern ½ to 1/3 of the area and feel some surprisingly high totals may be had in the area bounded by College Station to Livingston. Will likely also see snow all the way to the coast mixed with the rain Tuesday night.

Will start to see accumulations by mid morning Tuesday up north and then spread southward during the day on Tuesday. Will see rain start to mix and change to snow from NW to SE during the afternoon on Tuesday with many areas having all snow by Tuesday evening. Ground temperatures are warm and some of the snow will melt on impact. Heavy snow bands will help mitigate the warm ground allowing for quick accumulations over our northern counties. Additionally, as surface temperatures fall toward and to freezing Tuesday evening greater accumulation and formation of glazing of area bridges/overpasses appears likely. Would like to see lower dewpoints for IAH on Tuesday to support accumulations, but it looks close enough especially if moderate/heavy snow falls for some quick accumulation even with surface temperatures above freezing…similar to Dec 4, 2009.

Accumulations:

College Station to Livingston northward:

Accumulations of 2-4” with higher amounts (6+” possible).

Columbus to The Woodlands to Humble northward:

Accumulations of 1-3” with isolated amounts to up 4 inches

Katy to downtown Houston to Liberty northward:

Accumulations of .5-1”

Sugar Land to Pearland to High Island northward:

A dusting to ½ inch of accumulation.

South and West of Sugar Land to High Island:

Snow will mix with the rain, but no accumulation is expected
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From the Lake Charles AFD:

THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW MAY REACH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.AT PRESENT...BELIEVE THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE PINEY HILLS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

HOWEVER...REMAIN UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES.
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jabcwb2 wrote:Thank you all for the good wishes! We are in Gleannloch Farms, near Hooks airport, Spring, TX. I will absolutely pass on your messages. THANK YOU!
Ah, you'll probably see at least a dusting, then...
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Candy Cane wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
jabcwb2 wrote:I am getting soooooo excited!!!! My son arrives from Iraq today. We are celebrating Christmas on Wednesday with him!!!!!!!!! Could almost be a white Christmas for him! How awesome is that?
That is awesome jabcwb2 :D Thank him for his service and enjoy your time with him. ;)
WOW! That is awesome! Well, Merry Christmas, guys. I hope you get so much snow, it bury's your car! LOL. Good luck!

Starting to cry! Thank you so much!!!!!!
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18Z GFS says congrats Portastorm.
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18z GFS has a subtle shift southward, too, and also colder upper air temps at 0z wednesday (tuesday evening)

Faster start time with the snow in Houston
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Mr. T wrote:18z GFS has a subtle shift southward, too, and also colder upper air temps at 0z wednesday (tuesday evening)

Faster start time with the snow in Houston
The coastal is a bit closer to Galveston this run as well. H5 Vort appears to pass right over the Middle/Upper TX Coast.
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The coastal is a bit closer to Galveston this run as well. H5 Vort appears to pass right over the Middle/Upper TX Coast.
While they would mean better lift and more moisture, wouldnt that also mean warmer temps?
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