February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[tireman4]

Yep...Thursday/Friday...yes.....

[tireman4]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including the KHOU Forum. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's not hurricane season yet

I know. Just covering my bases. I did want anyone to conclude that what I say is fact or based on sound data.

[Mr. T]

I see lake charles discussion took chance of snow out of forecast for us here in beaumont. Said was siding with the warmer euro. And was.to be all rain. Kfdm has high 38 and 20% rain friday. Hmmmmm any thoughts

If the 12z NAM were to verify, you're in the game

This run also gives some snow to College Station and just NW of there

[redneckweather]

Yes. Snow chances are now in the 'likely' category. I suspect they will only increase as the genesis of the low beings to take shape. I'm not sure why HGX is saying south of I-10. Thins appear to be further inland this time.

I was trying to remember who said this yesterday. I think you said your buddy over at HGX was thinking places north of I-10 would see the better accumulations? A different tune this morning and I see Jeff is also saying south of I-10. Man, I'm not liking this south talk......AGAIN!

Also, I'm guessing the winds will increase as the day goes on? They aren't very strong right now. I dropped to 39 soon after the frontal passage came through and it is still sitting on 39 degrees. The wind might be gusting to 15 to 17 mph.

[Rich]

I was wondering if anyone knew, does one model stand out more than the others in regards to estimating precipitation totals?

[southerngale]

I see lake charles discussion took chance of snow out of forecast for us here in beaumont. Said was siding with the warmer euro. And was.to be all rain. Kfdm has high 38 and 20% rain friday. Hmmmmm any thoughts

I'm not sure where you saw that for KFDM, but this morning, they definitely mentioned snow/sleet possible for Thursday/Friday.

Also, I'm not sure what to think about NWS LCH, but the HOU discussions have been MUCH better. They (LCH) seem to gear everything more toward Louisiana and not put as much thought into those of us in extreme SE TX covered by them, but I could be wrong. It just seems that way sometimes. Anyway, I'm about 5 miles outside of Beaumont, along Hwy. 105 and there's snow in my NWS forecast.


Thursday Night...Cloudy. A chance of light freezing rain and sleet in the evening...then a chance of light freezing rain...rain...sleet and snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. A chance of light freezing rain and snow in the morning...then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Friday Night...Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s.

According to the models I've seen, which could change of course, I think they're being conservative. They usually are, though. 95% of the time, my temps are at least several degrees colder than my point forecast.

[srainhoutx]

The winds has increased again rather dramatically in the past 15 minutes here, redneckweather. Getting gusts in the 30+ range again after an hour lull, if you can call it that.

[harpman]

Looks like I'm going to have to live vicariously through you folks for this snow event......

[TexasMetBlake]

The winds has increased again rather dramatically in the past 15 minutes here, redneckweather. Getting gusts in the 30+ range again after an hour lull, if you can call it that.

Mr T and I agree that there is another front to our north...a polar boundary that is currently moving through College Station. They dropped 4 degrees last hour while we rose a degree to 44. I suspect we're going to see the temps tank here once the boundary arrives. I still think we'll be at freezing by 4pm.

[djmike]

I see lake charles discussion took chance of snow out of forecast for us here in beaumont. Said was siding with the warmer euro. And was.to be all rain. Kfdm has high 38 and 20% rain friday. Hmmmmm any thoughts

I'm not sure where you saw that for KFDM, but this morning, they definitely mentioned snow/sleet possible for Thursday/Friday.

Also, I'm not sure what to think about NWS LCH, but the HOU discussions have been MUCH better. They (LCH) seem to gear everything more toward Louisiana and not put as much thought into those of us in extreme SE TX covered by them, but I could be wrong. It just seems that way sometimes. Anyway, I'm about 5 miles outside of Beaumont, along Hwy. 105 and there's snow in my NWS forecast.


Thursday Night...Cloudy. A chance of light freezing rain and sleet in the evening...then a chance of light freezing rain...rain...sleet and snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. A chance of light freezing rain and snow in the morning...then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Friday Night...Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s.

According to the models I've seen, which could change of course, I think they're being conservative. They usually are, though. 95% of the time, my temps are at least several degrees colder than my point forecast.

Yup....snow/sleet still in my forecast for the Beaumont area...KFDM still has it posted aswell...NWS shows 20% for our area (BPT)and I'm seeing HOU went up to 60% for snow. I do wonder if our percentages will go up aswell for the BPT area. Do you guys think it will?

[djjordan]

Cold arctic air will continue to "blow" in this morning and afternoon. Austin is reporting 29 and overcast/windy right now .... College Station is at Freezing ... Brenham at 34 .... I agree that we should be at freezing later this afternoon and setting up for a frigid night across SE Texas.

[tireman4]

And frigid week.......

[Paul]

Yes. Snow chances are now in the 'likely' category. I suspect they will only increase as the genesis of the low beings to take shape. I'm not sure why HGX is saying south of I-10. Thins appear to be further inland this time.

I was trying to remember who said this yesterday. I think you said your buddy over at HGX was thinking places north of I-10 would see the better accumulations? A different tune this morning and I see Jeff is also saying south of I-10. Man, I'm not liking this south talk......AGAIN!

Also, I'm guessing the winds will increase as the day goes on? They aren't very strong right now. I dropped to 39 soon after the frontal passage came through and it is still sitting on 39 degrees. The wind might be gusting to 15 to 17 mph.

it all depends where the bands set up....could be south could be north...no one is going to know until the event. Remember 2009? They were expecting widescale accumulations 2-3inches....but the heavy band set up south and as it moved north it rang itself dry.....I suspect we will all see something...

[redneckweather]

The winds has increased again rather dramatically in the past 15 minutes here, redneckweather. Getting gusts in the 30+ range again after an hour lull, if you can call it that.


Yep, that seemed to be sort of a lull I guess. I'm at my office now in the Spring area and wind seems to be picking up. What CC said makes sense with the cold air holding back just a hair but should be entering our area shortly.

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at Impact Weather have updated their video. Hold on to your hat, it's going to be an interesting ride...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

[singlemom]

(quote Paul) I was trying to remember who said this yesterday. I think you said your buddy over at HGX was thinking places north of I-10 would see the better accumulations? A different tune this morning and I see Jeff is also saying south of I-10. Man, I'm not liking this south talk......AGAIN! (quote)

Awwww....don't tell me there's a chance of *south of I-10 **ONLY** * snow in the forecast????? Really?????

[Paul]

(quote Paul) I was trying to remember who said this yesterday. I think you said your buddy over at HGX was thinking places north of I-10 would see the better accumulations? A different tune this morning and I see Jeff is also saying south of I-10. Man, I'm not liking this south talk......AGAIN! (quote)

Awwww....don't tell me there's a chance of *south of I-10 **ONLY** * snow in the forecast????? Really?????

My quote was not this one..I was saying it is where the bands set up...North or South right now have equally good chances...

[Rich]

I was wondering if anyone knew, does one model stand out more than the others in regards to estimating precipitation totals?

[srainhoutx]

The American models as well as the others are struggling, folks. I'd be very cautious regarding 'finer details', right now.

[TexasMetBlake]

Temp fell from 44 to 41 at IAH last hour! The polar boundary is arriving.