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Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Tornado Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
736 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
ARC023-045-085-145-260100-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0102.000000T0000Z-110426T0100Z/
LONOKE AR-FAULKNER AR-WHITE AR-CLEBURNE AR-
736 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL CLEBURNE...SOUTHWESTERN WHITE...EAST CENTRAL FAULKNER AND
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LONOKE COUNTIES...
AT 735 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR VILONIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
THIS TORNADO HAS BEEN SIGHTED AND HAS DESTROYED A CHURCH AND DAMAGED
BUILDINGS AT THE INTERSECTION OF PLUM ROAD AND HIGHWAY 365 NORTH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SEARCY AND
VILONIA.
LAT...LON 3502 9217 3502 9220 3511 9229 3549 9196
3520 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 227DEG 42KT 3516 9212
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
734 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
ARC045-085-119-145-260115-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0104.000000T0000Z-110426T0115Z/
PULASKI AR-LONOKE AR-FAULKNER AR-WHITE AR-
734 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WHITE...SOUTHERN FAULKNER...NORTHWESTERN LONOKE AND
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES...
AT 735 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CAMMACK VILLAGE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AUSTIN...
CABOT...CAMMACK VILLAGE...GIBSON...GRAVEL RIDGE...JACKSONVILLE...
MAUMELLE...NORTH LITTLE ROCK...SHERWOOD AND WARD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 3519 9207 3492 9184 3471 9235 3487 9248
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 230DEG 37KT 3487 9226
$$
BORGHOFF
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING
ARC029-045-105-119-125-260100-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0103.110426T0025Z-110426T0100Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CONWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT
* AT 724 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF LAKE BALBOA...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BENTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
WEST LITTLE ROCK... SW LITTLE ROCK... SHERWOOD...
N LITTLE ROCK ARPT... NORTH LITTLE ROCK... LAKE MAUMELLE...
DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK... LITTLE ROCK ARPT... BRYANT...
WILLIAMS JUNCTION... TOAD SUCK... SYLVAN HILLS...
ROLAND... PROTHRO JUNCTION... PINNACLE MTN...
PARK HILL... OTTER CREEK... MORGAN...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 116 AND 142.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 133 AND 161.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3453 9270 3475 9296 3516 9260 3474 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 234DEG 50KT 3468 9276
$$
225
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE
Historic Multi Day Tornado Outbreak. 4/25-28/2011
-
mwbwhorton
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:57 pm
- Location: Bastrop,Louisiana
- Contact:
-
mwbwhorton
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:57 pm
- Location: Bastrop,Louisiana
- Contact:
memphis has taken over for little rock due to hit on nws little rock very bad situation in little rock area heavy damage and cars and 18 wheelers blown off I 40.....pavement has been lifted from some roads due to possible tornado winds....
its been confirmed pavement scoured in this storm.....
its been confirmed pavement scoured in this storm.....
live broadcast http://www.todaysthv.com/news/article/1 ... ow-on-THV2
Code: Select all
TORNADO WARNING
TXC225-260215-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0002.110426T0127Z-110426T0215Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
827 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT
* AT 822 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAPELAND...OR NEAR
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STORM. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A TORNADO IN LEON COUNTY.
* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GRAPELAND...LATEXO AND CROCKETT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE WARNED AREA.
&&
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3159 9534 3148 9524 3134 9519 3114 9535
3139 9571 3144 9572 3147 9575 3148 9574
3150 9575 3152 9573 3153 9567 3155 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 305DEG 17KT 3144 9560
$$Tornado Warning in Houston county. No storms or let alone rain developing west of us.
-
mwbwhorton
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:57 pm
- Location: Bastrop,Louisiana
- Contact:
Well so much for se texas not being affected as some have said.....
-
mwbwhorton
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:57 pm
- Location: Bastrop,Louisiana
- Contact:
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Tornado Watch 207
< Previous WW
Public (Test) | Counties | Probabilities | Aviation | Warnings | Initial RADAR
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205...WW 206...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AR HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE E/SEWD INTO CENTRAL MS. WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
AND MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOS IN THE SQUALL LINE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205...WW 206...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AR HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE E/SEWD INTO CENTRAL MS. WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
AND MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOS IN THE SQUALL LINE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205...WW 206...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AR HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE E/SEWD INTO CENTRAL MS. WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
AND MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOS IN THE SQUALL LINE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 260220
WOU7
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
TORNADO WATCH 207 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC003-017-260900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0207.110426T0225Z-110426T0900Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
LAC035-041-065-067-083-123-260900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0207.110426T0225Z-110426T0900Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
MOREHOUSE RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
MSC007-011-015-043-051-053-055-083-089-097-125-133-149-151-155-
163-260900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0207.110426T0225Z-110426T0900Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE MADISON
MONTGOMERY SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YAZOO
ATTN...WFO...JAN...
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 207 TORNADO AR LA MS 260225Z - 260900Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNW GWO/GREENWOOD MS/ - 55WSW JAN/JACKSON MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /31N SQS - 50SW JAN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 33958901 32008966 32009223 33959162
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 207 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
Top of Page/All Current Watches/Forecast Products/Home
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Site Map News Organization Search for: NCEP All NOAA
Search by city or zip code. Press enter or select the go button to submit requestLocal forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Links
Contact Us
SPC Feedback
Tornado Watch 207
< Previous WW
Public (Test) | Counties | Probabilities | Aviation | Warnings | Initial RADAR
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205...WW 206...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AR HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE E/SEWD INTO CENTRAL MS. WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
AND MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOS IN THE SQUALL LINE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205...WW 206...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AR HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE E/SEWD INTO CENTRAL MS. WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
AND MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOS IN THE SQUALL LINE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205...WW 206...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AR HAVE EVOLVED INTO A
SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE E/SEWD INTO CENTRAL MS. WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES
AND MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOS IN THE SQUALL LINE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 260220
WOU7
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
TORNADO WATCH 207 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC003-017-260900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0207.110426T0225Z-110426T0900Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
LAC035-041-065-067-083-123-260900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0207.110426T0225Z-110426T0900Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON
MOREHOUSE RICHLAND WEST CARROLL
MSC007-011-015-043-051-053-055-083-089-097-125-133-149-151-155-
163-260900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0207.110426T0225Z-110426T0900Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
GRENADA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
ISSAQUENA LEFLORE MADISON
MONTGOMERY SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YAZOO
ATTN...WFO...JAN...
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 207 TORNADO AR LA MS 260225Z - 260900Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNW GWO/GREENWOOD MS/ - 55WSW JAN/JACKSON MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /31N SQS - 50SW JAN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 33958901 32008966 32009223 33959162
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 207 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.
Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Moderate
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
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-
mwbwhorton
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:57 pm
- Location: Bastrop,Louisiana
- Contact:
and the warnings continue now for the lufkin texas area....
weather.gov
National Weather Service
Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Tornado Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING
TXC225-455-260300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0004.110426T0218Z-110426T0300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
918 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
* AT 914 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATEXO... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PENNINGTON...APPLE SPRINGS...KENNARD AND CROCKETT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR A TORNADO - TAKE COVER NOW!
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE WARNED AREA.
&&
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3132 9496 3124 9485 3117 9482 3105 9496
3133 9555 3149 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 297DEG 41KT 3136 9540
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
Disclaimer
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE
weather.gov
National Weather Service
Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Tornado Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TORNADO WARNING
TXC225-455-260300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0004.110426T0218Z-110426T0300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
918 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
* AT 914 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATEXO... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PENNINGTON...APPLE SPRINGS...KENNARD AND CROCKETT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR A TORNADO - TAKE COVER NOW!
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE WARNED AREA.
&&
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3132 9496 3124 9485 3117 9482 3105 9496
3133 9555 3149 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 297DEG 41KT 3136 9540
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 2, 2009
Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE
-
mwbwhorton
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:57 pm
- Location: Bastrop,Louisiana
- Contact:
anyone want to take this can ,will be back tommorrow as a second and possibly more dangerous round is expected here....
-
weatherguy425
- Pro Met
- Posts: 830
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:45 pm
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
- Contact:
Nice outflow boundary moving out of the Angelina County storm, along with new convection firing north of the Bryan/ College Station area...not a favorable time of day for storms but I guess we'll see...
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
A High Risk from SPC for parts of NE TX/SE OK/NW LA/AR...
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...AND THE SRN HALF OF
AR...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD SWATH FROM THE SRN
PLAINS EWD/NEWD TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...DANGEROUS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX ENEWD TO THE MS RIVER...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO/IL WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER
MI TODAY...WHILE AN INTENSE UPSTREAM JET STREAK PROGRESSES ESEWD TO
THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. MORNING SUBSIDENCE OVER AR /IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING WAVE/ WILL BE REPLACED BY ASCENT BEGINNING ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/SRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EWD THIS EVENING INTO SE OK/NE TX AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET. THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING SLY/SSWLY LLJ FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS E TX...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ORIGINATING TO THE W...WILL PROVIDE MODERATE-STRONG WARM SECTOR
INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE A STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHICH APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A DANGEROUS
TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK.
...S/SE AR INTO NW MS TODAY...
INITIAL WARM ADVECTION STORMS WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ALONG AND N
OF THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS S/SE AR AND NW MS...AS LOW-LEVEL
WAA INCREASES WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 200 M2/S2 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...ARKLATEX/SE OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OVER AR/NW MS LEFT AN E-W OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TODAY. FARTHER
S...A WEAKENING MCS OVER SRN LA/MS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/E TX...BUT AN UNIMPEDED FEED OF LOW 70S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS REMAINS TO THE W OF THIS CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX. THE SE
TX MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD TODAY AS THE SRN LA STORMS
DISSIPATE...WHILE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE W. THESE PROCESSES...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG IN THE NE TX WARM SECTOR...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER
INSTABILITY FARTHER E ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR...AND FARTHER N INTO SE
OK.
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
N/NE TX...ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE TO THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF
THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD SW AR/NW LA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE STRONG INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60
KT...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2...AND A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES
WITH DISCRETE AND CLUSTER SUPERCELLS INTO THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
NIGHTTIME HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS.
...NRN LA/SE AR/NW MS/WRN TN TONIGHT...
AS THE STRONG SYNOPTIC CYCLONE PROGRESSES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...INTENSE CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN NE TX/SW AR AREA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE INTENSE
MCS/S...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD/INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS TORNADOES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD/NEWD TO THE MS RIVER LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ENEWD.
...OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
THE EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BROAD SWATH OF
MODERATE-STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...ABOVE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION MAKE THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TODAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION...THOUGH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/26/2011
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...AND THE SRN HALF OF
AR...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD SWATH FROM THE SRN
PLAINS EWD/NEWD TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...DANGEROUS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX ENEWD TO THE MS RIVER...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO/IL WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER
MI TODAY...WHILE AN INTENSE UPSTREAM JET STREAK PROGRESSES ESEWD TO
THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. MORNING SUBSIDENCE OVER AR /IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING WAVE/ WILL BE REPLACED BY ASCENT BEGINNING ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/SRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EWD THIS EVENING INTO SE OK/NE TX AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET. THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING SLY/SSWLY LLJ FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS E TX...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ORIGINATING TO THE W...WILL PROVIDE MODERATE-STRONG WARM SECTOR
INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE A STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHICH APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A DANGEROUS
TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK.
...S/SE AR INTO NW MS TODAY...
INITIAL WARM ADVECTION STORMS WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ALONG AND N
OF THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS S/SE AR AND NW MS...AS LOW-LEVEL
WAA INCREASES WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 200 M2/S2 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...ARKLATEX/SE OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OVER AR/NW MS LEFT AN E-W OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TODAY. FARTHER
S...A WEAKENING MCS OVER SRN LA/MS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/E TX...BUT AN UNIMPEDED FEED OF LOW 70S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS REMAINS TO THE W OF THIS CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX. THE SE
TX MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD TODAY AS THE SRN LA STORMS
DISSIPATE...WHILE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE W. THESE PROCESSES...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG IN THE NE TX WARM SECTOR...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER
INSTABILITY FARTHER E ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR...AND FARTHER N INTO SE
OK.
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
N/NE TX...ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE TO THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF
THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD SW AR/NW LA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE STRONG INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60
KT...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2...AND A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES
WITH DISCRETE AND CLUSTER SUPERCELLS INTO THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
NIGHTTIME HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS.
...NRN LA/SE AR/NW MS/WRN TN TONIGHT...
AS THE STRONG SYNOPTIC CYCLONE PROGRESSES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...INTENSE CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN NE TX/SW AR AREA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE INTENSE
MCS/S...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD/INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS TORNADOES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD/NEWD TO THE MS RIVER LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ENEWD.
...OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
THE EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BROAD SWATH OF
MODERATE-STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...ABOVE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION MAKE THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TODAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION...THOUGH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/26/2011
- Attachments
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
13Z HRRR suggests a very rough evening across the Dallas Ft Worth Area and point ENE. Paris/Tyler/Texarkana/Shreveport/El Dorado certainly appear to have a very rough evening ahead. Wow!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Keep an eye on the boundary draped W to E across E TX, S of Dallas/Ft Worth. That area may well be the initiation of some super cell activity later today...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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mwbwhorton
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:57 pm
- Location: Bastrop,Louisiana
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Ok im back will be on and and off line today hope i can keep up with warnings like last night if it gets to crazy by all means anyone who can post any warnings i miss....also since im so close to that high risk area ill be watching the local weather closer
than usual if any warnings (tornado) occur ya'll take it for me as today's storms are likely to be much more severe than usual here...
than usual if any warnings (tornado) occur ya'll take it for me as today's storms are likely to be much more severe than usual here...
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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High Risk area to be expanded to include Memphis...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN AR/SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHERN MS
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 261551Z - 261645Z
THE EXISTING CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...WHILE ADDING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
TN/NORTHWEST MS INTO A HIGH RISK. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
DISCUSSION...SEE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED
BY AROUND 1630Z.
..GUYER.. 04/26/2011
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN AR/SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHERN MS
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 261551Z - 261645Z
THE EXISTING CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR...WHILE ADDING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
TN/NORTHWEST MS INTO A HIGH RISK. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
DISCUSSION...SEE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK THAT WILL BE ISSUED
BY AROUND 1630Z.
..GUYER.. 04/26/2011
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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mwbwhorton
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:57 pm
- Location: Bastrop,Louisiana
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High risk area expanded to include nw mississippi and western tenn... twc tor con 9/10 for those areas now ...wow...
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Very concerning...potentially very dangerous 24 hours or so ahead...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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mwbwhorton
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:57 pm
- Location: Bastrop,Louisiana
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thanks for the help guys im trying to get the word out up here any way i can i post on several forums so i need it thanks again
hoping anyone that might be here in north louisiana and reading this takes it seriously as lives are at stake over the next 24 or so hours i believe....
hoping anyone that might be here in north louisiana and reading this takes it seriously as lives are at stake over the next 24 or so hours i believe....
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
SPC Update...High Risk expanded NE...Moderate Risk expanded SW...
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...THE SRN HALF OF
AR...SOUTHWEST TN...AND NORTHWEST MS...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK/EAST TX INTO MUCH
OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND INTO PA/NY...
...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES...WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURES TRACKING
ACROSS THE NATION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS
AND OH VALLEY AND WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS PORTIONS OF NY/PA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER CO/NM AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE
INTO OK/TX BY EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY.
...OK/TX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY RETURNING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NORTH
AS SOUTHERN AR. THE 12Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG AND A WEAKENED CAP OVER NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST
LA/SOUTHWEST AR. ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER TX...LEADING TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHEAST OK BY EARLY
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR/LA
/ROUGHLY THE SAME AXIS AS THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS/ AND WILL BE IN A
MUCH MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR RISKS OF
STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES.
TONIGHT...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN AR/NORTHWEST MS/WEST TN NORTHWARD INTO IL/IND. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS AS THEY
PROGRESS INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE STORMS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE
ACROSS AR WITH A RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...OR THEY MAY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO WITH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN EITHER
CASE...CONDITIONS ARE CLEARLY FAVORABLE A HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
HIGH RISK FARTHER EAST.
...TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM IL/IND INTO MS/AL. A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING...BUT IS LIKELY TO REJUVENATE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE CAPE WILL
LEAD TO A RISK OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER A RELATIVELY
BROAD AREA FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD INTO PA/NY. DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREAS OF THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED THROUGH THE DAY IN
FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.
..HART/GRAMS.. 04/26/2011
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...THE SRN HALF OF
AR...SOUTHWEST TN...AND NORTHWEST MS...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK/EAST TX INTO MUCH
OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND INTO PA/NY...
...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES
AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES...WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURES TRACKING
ACROSS THE NATION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS
AND OH VALLEY AND WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS PORTIONS OF NY/PA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER CO/NM AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE
INTO OK/TX BY EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY.
...OK/TX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY RETURNING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NORTH
AS SOUTHERN AR. THE 12Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG AND A WEAKENED CAP OVER NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST
LA/SOUTHWEST AR. ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER TX...LEADING TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SECOND ROUND OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHEAST OK BY EARLY
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR/LA
/ROUGHLY THE SAME AXIS AS THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS/ AND WILL BE IN A
MUCH MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR RISKS OF
STRONG/DAMAGING TORNADOES.
TONIGHT...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN AR/NORTHWEST MS/WEST TN NORTHWARD INTO IL/IND. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS AS THEY
PROGRESS INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE STORMS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE
ACROSS AR WITH A RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...OR THEY MAY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO WITH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN EITHER
CASE...CONDITIONS ARE CLEARLY FAVORABLE A HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
HIGH RISK FARTHER EAST.
...TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM IL/IND INTO MS/AL. A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING...BUT IS LIKELY TO REJUVENATE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE CAPE WILL
LEAD TO A RISK OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER A RELATIVELY
BROAD AREA FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD INTO PA/NY. DETAILS ON SPECIFIC
AREAS OF THIS THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED THROUGH THE DAY IN
FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.
..HART/GRAMS.. 04/26/2011
- Attachments
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Are the ingredients there for long-lived, EF4 or EF5s?
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mwbwhorton
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:57 pm
- Location: Bastrop,Louisiana
- Contact:
yes it is likely to be a dangerous late afternoon and evening over ne texas ,s arkansas,n louisiana and w tenn and west miss....texoz wrote:Are the ingredients there for long-lived, EF4 or EF5s?