2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[srainhoutx]

I see JB is hinting at some early action possibilities for the Caribbean. Models are suggesting a mighty deep trough sinking near the Caribbean in a week or two. Perhaps that early start that some have mentioned?

http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?category ... _home_page

[srainhoutx]

A very deep trough looks to settle across the Gulf and pressures lowering in the Caribbean. And of course the Canadian sniffs out some tropical development near Jamaica….

[cisa]

just curious...what are the GOM temps right now?
Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

just curious...what are the GOM temps right now?
Thanks!

Nothing out of the ordinary...

[srainhoutx]

An early indicator that the NALT 2011 Tropical Season is getting closer...

...TROPICAL WAVE...

THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NE BRAZIL WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 7N38W TO 2N42W. THE WAVE IS
DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON SATELLITE
DATA WITH THE WAVE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA ON MAY 12. THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS THIS WAVE LACKS OF CYCLONIC
CURVATURE...WITH NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS.
VERY WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

[srainhoutx]

Reminder: NOAA is scheduled to release their Atlantic Tropical Outlook for 2011 on Thursday @ 10:30 AM CDT

[srainhoutx]

NOAA Releases 2011 NALT Hurricane Outlook...

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

•12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:


•6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:


•3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html

[unome]

did TCEQ have the Atlantic shot last year or is that new?



ps - I have tried & tried to use the "add attachment" for images, can't get it to work, but right-clicking & choosing "open in new tab" lets you see the whole thing

[srainhoutx]

The easiest way for me to post attachments is to save the image to my computer and then use the board image attachment feature. I've not tried saving any images from my iphone, nor will I.

[srainhoutx]

National Hurricane Preparedness Week is upon us. Never too soon to have a friendly reminder that Tropical Season is getting close.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/prepared_week.shtml

[srainhoutx]

The Euro long range outlook is concerning for our area. Looking at July, August and September, both lower pressures and higher rainfall are predicted by that model. Looking out a bit further into October, the Euro suggests lower pressures across the MDR (main development region) allowing for favorable conditions for long track storms...

[srainhoutx]

The GFS has been sniffing lowering pressures across the Western Caribbean near the first of June for almost a week now. The past few runs in la la land (beyond 240 hours) have suggested possible storm development across that part of the Basin. We will see, but we are nearing that time of year and consistency with that model does raise an eyebrow, somewhat.

[Ptarmigan]

The GFS has been sniffing lowering pressures across the Western Caribbean near the first of June for almost a week now. The past few runs in la la land (beyond 240 hours) have suggested possible storm development across that part of the Basin. We will see, but we are nearing that time of year and consistency with that model does raise an eyebrow, somewhat.

Perhaps we could see rain.

[srainhoutx]

It maybe time to keep an eye on the Caribbean next week. Models have been suggesting a spin up N of S America during that time frame. The euro ensembles do suggest lowering pressures. With Hurricane Season starting next Wednesday, eyes turn toward the tropics for the next 4 months or so...

[srainhoutx]

The Euro ensembles continue to advertise lower pressures in the Western Caribbean and a possible mid/upper low in the Gulf...

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS continues to advertise lower pressures as well as a possible area of disturbed weather in the W Caribbean for next week. The NOGAPS as well as Canadian are also 'sniffing' out that area. The operational Euro has suggested a weak disturbance as well. Something to monitor as we head toward the start of tropical season.

[srainhoutx]

NHC Marine MSLP experimental forecast for the W Caribbean does look a bit interesting for later next week, for what it's worth...

[Ptarmigan]

NHC Marine MSLP experimental forecast for the W Caribbean does look a bit interesting for later next week, for what it's worth...

Should be interesting. Perhaps it will head towards us................................

[srainhoutx]

The Operational Euro is sniffing something albeit weak, so we'll need to keep eye on things I suppose...

[srainhoutx]

It looks like a monsoonal trough setup in the W Caribbean to me. Virtually all the models are sniffing something, but as we say last year when a monsoonal gyre became established, it takes a while for any development to form in that kind of pattern.