W of HWY 6. CFVFD was running like crazy out W along FM 529 and I witnessed transformers blowing while in line at KFC for some dinner take out.ejburas wrote:Where along 529? I'm just south of 529, along Fry Rd and it was pretty rough over here for a bit.
August Weather Discussion
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srainhoutx
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These storms can be tracked all the way back to Arkansas early this morning in association with an upper level disturbance riding around the edge of the ridge of high pressure. Extreme daytime heating allowed these storms to hold together and move southwest all the way down into our area where they did weaken, but still saw some pretty strong storms in spots.sleetstorm wrote:Does anyone know what caused those showers and thunderstorms to form?
The storms missed me to my west by about 5 miles; however it looks like that might have been a good thing seeing that radar is indication 60-70mph winds with the storms moving southwest across western Ft. Bend county. Did film an incredible lightning show!
Yeah, I saw transformers going all around me too.
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biggerbyte
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Wow! I'm really happy some of you got some rain. So many did not. I was one of them. It was so close. The line split as it approached my part of Montgomery County. The wind was terrible. Everything that a thunderstorm brings, except the rain. Totally heartbreaking.
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srainhoutx
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Good to see a couple of short waves bring some showers this morning to our drought parched area. Perhaps some additional activity with daytime heating for this afternoon as well. Fingers crossed...
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Upper ridge has finally given just enough ground to place the area on its eastern flank allowing showers/thunderstorms to move into/across the area.
Storms raced across the area last evening with lots of lightening and wind damage (See reports below).
Additional waves of energy on the eastern side of the massive upper high continue to slide SW across the region his morning with numerous showers/thunderstorms affecting areas mainly along and NW of US 59. Storms continue to fire in a region of convergence near Lufkin and then move rapidly SW across the northern half of SE TX. Current batch is along a line from College Station to Humble with additional development upstream just NE of Lake Livingston currently. Fast forward motions are producing gusty winds along the leading edge of the storms, but nothing like many saw yesterday evening (60-80mph). Overall rainfall this morning is light due to fast forward motions, but we will take what we can get at this point!
Overall trend in the next 4-5 hours will be a weakening of the activity, with the possibility of additional activity developing later this afternoon both along the seabreeze and leftover outflow boundaries from the morning activity. Where the best chances of rain will be this afternoon is up for debate based on how boundaries move about this morning. 4km WRF shows the seabreeze being the main focus, but this model is not handling the current activity incoming from the NE right now very well. Feel at least 40% is needed for this morning, but not confident enough to go any higher for this afternoon given the questions on where/if storms will develop.
Damaging winds threat will be greatest with any afternoon thunderstorms as the air mass becomes increasingly unstable and hot and the sub-cloud layer dries…much like yesterday afternoon. Would favor areas west of I-45 and SW down US 59 for this potential where heating may be greatest today. Other threat is lightening induced grass fires as seen yesterday across the area and then the strong outflow winds pushing these fires quickly through the dead/dry brush.
Other item today will be high temperatures as clouds/rain this morning may finally snap the 100 degree day streak at IAH. While the forecast is for 101-103, it is going to be hard to reach those levels if clouds linger into the late morning. We shall see…yesterday was day 24!
Excessive Heat:
After today, the massive heat ridge over the SW US begins to build back eastward over TX, while a weak frontal boundary slips southward across the region and offshore. This will greatly lower dewpoints and afternoon RH will fall to less than 20% for both Saturday and Sunday. Impressive mid level warming and subsidence will result in strong heating and weak to moderate N to NE flow at the low levels will keep the seabreeze right along the coast allowing very warm afternoon highs over the weekend. Guidance (especially the NAM) continues to produce 105-111 across the region for this period which would be approaching the all-time records for several climate sites. While the NAM has performed very well this summer with the heat, we must see how much wetting rains we get today to help “cool” the ground and possibly add a little water for evaporation, which could temper temperatures some over the weekend. If the rains remain fairly scattered, then the NAM guidance will likely become the end result.
Fire Weather:
Several areas north of I-10 saw decent rainfall of .5-1.0 inch yesterday evening…enough to wet the dust. Numerous lightening strikes and strong winds help produce several grass fires which burned very fast in the dry/dead brush/grass. Additional rains ongoing this morning will help wet the top 1-2 inches of soil a little more possibly helping to green-up what vegetation if still alive. Extreme fire weather threat this weekend may have been knocked back some by the rainfall, but very low RH and slightly stronger NE winds over the weekend may still support an elevated risk. If winds are forecast any stronger than about the current 10mph over the weekend, a Fire Weather Watch may be needed given the large amounts of dead fuels and very low RH.
Wednesday Severe Reports:
Livingston: Trees down of roadways
Bryan: 60mph winds recorded at KTBX TV station in Bryan, numerous trees downed
Snook: 69mph wind recorded by home weather station
Brookshire: 60mph winds recorded by Houston Executive Airport ASOS station.
Sealy: trees down along Columbus Rd
Bellville: power lines down
Conroe: estimated 70-80mph winds just south of Lake Conroe Dam, numerous trees and power lines down.
Cypress: lightening strike on a house resulting in a fire
Spring: lightening strike on trees which in turn caught on fire threatening several homes
Palestine: several power lines down along with lightening strikes caused 11 forest fires to develop. Multiple structures were burned
Upper ridge has finally given just enough ground to place the area on its eastern flank allowing showers/thunderstorms to move into/across the area.
Storms raced across the area last evening with lots of lightening and wind damage (See reports below).
Additional waves of energy on the eastern side of the massive upper high continue to slide SW across the region his morning with numerous showers/thunderstorms affecting areas mainly along and NW of US 59. Storms continue to fire in a region of convergence near Lufkin and then move rapidly SW across the northern half of SE TX. Current batch is along a line from College Station to Humble with additional development upstream just NE of Lake Livingston currently. Fast forward motions are producing gusty winds along the leading edge of the storms, but nothing like many saw yesterday evening (60-80mph). Overall rainfall this morning is light due to fast forward motions, but we will take what we can get at this point!
Overall trend in the next 4-5 hours will be a weakening of the activity, with the possibility of additional activity developing later this afternoon both along the seabreeze and leftover outflow boundaries from the morning activity. Where the best chances of rain will be this afternoon is up for debate based on how boundaries move about this morning. 4km WRF shows the seabreeze being the main focus, but this model is not handling the current activity incoming from the NE right now very well. Feel at least 40% is needed for this morning, but not confident enough to go any higher for this afternoon given the questions on where/if storms will develop.
Damaging winds threat will be greatest with any afternoon thunderstorms as the air mass becomes increasingly unstable and hot and the sub-cloud layer dries…much like yesterday afternoon. Would favor areas west of I-45 and SW down US 59 for this potential where heating may be greatest today. Other threat is lightening induced grass fires as seen yesterday across the area and then the strong outflow winds pushing these fires quickly through the dead/dry brush.
Other item today will be high temperatures as clouds/rain this morning may finally snap the 100 degree day streak at IAH. While the forecast is for 101-103, it is going to be hard to reach those levels if clouds linger into the late morning. We shall see…yesterday was day 24!
Excessive Heat:
After today, the massive heat ridge over the SW US begins to build back eastward over TX, while a weak frontal boundary slips southward across the region and offshore. This will greatly lower dewpoints and afternoon RH will fall to less than 20% for both Saturday and Sunday. Impressive mid level warming and subsidence will result in strong heating and weak to moderate N to NE flow at the low levels will keep the seabreeze right along the coast allowing very warm afternoon highs over the weekend. Guidance (especially the NAM) continues to produce 105-111 across the region for this period which would be approaching the all-time records for several climate sites. While the NAM has performed very well this summer with the heat, we must see how much wetting rains we get today to help “cool” the ground and possibly add a little water for evaporation, which could temper temperatures some over the weekend. If the rains remain fairly scattered, then the NAM guidance will likely become the end result.
Fire Weather:
Several areas north of I-10 saw decent rainfall of .5-1.0 inch yesterday evening…enough to wet the dust. Numerous lightening strikes and strong winds help produce several grass fires which burned very fast in the dry/dead brush/grass. Additional rains ongoing this morning will help wet the top 1-2 inches of soil a little more possibly helping to green-up what vegetation if still alive. Extreme fire weather threat this weekend may have been knocked back some by the rainfall, but very low RH and slightly stronger NE winds over the weekend may still support an elevated risk. If winds are forecast any stronger than about the current 10mph over the weekend, a Fire Weather Watch may be needed given the large amounts of dead fuels and very low RH.
Wednesday Severe Reports:
Livingston: Trees down of roadways
Bryan: 60mph winds recorded at KTBX TV station in Bryan, numerous trees downed
Snook: 69mph wind recorded by home weather station
Brookshire: 60mph winds recorded by Houston Executive Airport ASOS station.
Sealy: trees down along Columbus Rd
Bellville: power lines down
Conroe: estimated 70-80mph winds just south of Lake Conroe Dam, numerous trees and power lines down.
Cypress: lightening strike on a house resulting in a fire
Spring: lightening strike on trees which in turn caught on fire threatening several homes
Palestine: several power lines down along with lightening strikes caused 11 forest fires to develop. Multiple structures were burned
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Looks like southern sections may get a taste of precipitation, hopefully.
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txflagwaver
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Rain!
Yup, good thunderstorm with heavy rain. Nice to hear and see.
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sleetstorm
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The rain is a very welcome sight. 
Rain and a cool 75 degrees!
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sleetstorm
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I will be totally astonished if the temperature peaks at 100 or higher today after the clouds bocked most of the sunlight this morning.
Hurray! That is a streak worth breaking!Ed Mahmoud wrote:I think we're going to come up a degree or two short and break the streak.tireman4 wrote:At Hobby, I agree with you. Down near you, I agree with you. Around Bush and Humble, we may have a shot. We are at 94 and going up.
Gettin ready for our run at breaking our all time temp this weekend. I don't think we will quite break it but will come close or tie it. Figure if we are having a summer of records, might as well take a shot at the all time high as well LOL.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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All Time Record Tied...for now
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011
.DISCUSSION...
ALL TIME RECORD HIGH OF 109 HAS BEEN TIED AT IAH (PREVIOUSLY SET
ON 9/4/2000) @ 244 PM. TEMP SPIKED THEN WENT BACK DOWN. STILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS TO BREAK THAT. SADLY...DON`T SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE
TOMORROW WITH A REALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. WRF/NAM12
SHOW ABOUT THE SAME READINGS AS TODAY. (GLS MIGHT SEE A SLIGHTLY
EARLIER START W/ SOUTH WINDS THEREFORE LOWER TEMPS). A LIGHT S/SE
FLOW RESUMES AREAWIDE MONDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET BACK DOWN
TO 100-106.
THERE IS HOPE.
LOW & MID LEVEL RIDGES PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SLUG OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM
THE CARIBBEAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO SE TX - ARRIVING WED NIGHT
AND QUITE POSSIBLY PERSISTING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS
SHOW AN INVERTED TROF OR WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVELS SITUATED JUST
TO OUR WEST WHICH IS HISTORICALLY A GOOD SIGN FOR SUMMERTIME RAIN.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY - POSSIBLY EVEN WIDESPREAD AT TIMES
IF THE ECMWF IS ON TARGET WHICH SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA (SEVERAL INCHES). WILL NUDGE POPS UPWARDS DURING
THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK AND SUSPECT THEY MIGHT NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE BUMPED UP AS FCST CONFIDENCE INCREASES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011
.DISCUSSION...
ALL TIME RECORD HIGH OF 109 HAS BEEN TIED AT IAH (PREVIOUSLY SET
ON 9/4/2000) @ 244 PM. TEMP SPIKED THEN WENT BACK DOWN. STILL HAVE
A FEW HOURS TO BREAK THAT. SADLY...DON`T SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE
TOMORROW WITH A REALLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. WRF/NAM12
SHOW ABOUT THE SAME READINGS AS TODAY. (GLS MIGHT SEE A SLIGHTLY
EARLIER START W/ SOUTH WINDS THEREFORE LOWER TEMPS). A LIGHT S/SE
FLOW RESUMES AREAWIDE MONDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET BACK DOWN
TO 100-106.
THERE IS HOPE.
LOW & MID LEVEL RIDGES PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SLUG OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM
THE CARIBBEAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO SE TX - ARRIVING WED NIGHT
AND QUITE POSSIBLY PERSISTING WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS
SHOW AN INVERTED TROF OR WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVELS SITUATED JUST
TO OUR WEST WHICH IS HISTORICALLY A GOOD SIGN FOR SUMMERTIME RAIN.
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY - POSSIBLY EVEN WIDESPREAD AT TIMES
IF THE ECMWF IS ON TARGET WHICH SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA (SEVERAL INCHES). WILL NUDGE POPS UPWARDS DURING
THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK AND SUSPECT THEY MIGHT NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE BUMPED UP AS FCST CONFIDENCE INCREASES
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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