Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

[Andrew]

18z NAM farther west and shows a good amount of moisture coming our way at the end:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ticka1]

Passes the kleenexes around.....saying and singing "ITS CRYING TIME AGAIN".

That's why we should NEVER watch the models until they are 48 hours away.

[jeff]

Also Jeff, while you are here what is your thinking of this storm getting farther west before the steering currents break down? I know (especially this year) the models have been pretty bad when trying to pin down the change in steering currents.

I would not discount the system getting farther west. I am somewhat surprised about how fast mets are nowdays to jump on the model swings. I understand they all jumped NE, but nearly all were pointing WSW and SW yesterday at this time except the GFS. I like to see at least 1-3 runs of the same general thinking before jumping on board. Weak steering can really cause some issues..have seen it before. One must also expect the potential for center relocations toward the deep convection in a sheared envirnoment, although the shear is forecast to weaken in the next 24 hours. I still think the stall and SW motion is still possible, maybe not as likely as this morning, but still possible. It is also possible the system may move WNW and reach the SE TX coast before stalling and turning NE.

Weak steering equals big uncertainty almost always and it can give you some "crazy" tracks in the end.

[jeff]

Better res satellite loop of the system that won't rain on us, enhance dry Northeast flow, wamr us through subsidence, and maybe cause some tragedies at the beaches with swell and rip currents.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

Cannot stress enough that if the LA track shold fire weather over the entire weekend and much of next week is going to be really bad. Could be near RFW conditions Sun-Mon and we have been burning hundreds of acres with much less wind and higher RH all week. Cloud get some really big unstoppable fires with this pattern. Hopefully the system will get close enough to bring some rainbands and help ease this threat...if not look out.

[Andrew]

Also Jeff, while you are here what is your thinking of this storm getting farther west before the steering currents break down? I know (especially this year) the models have been pretty bad when trying to pin down the change in steering currents.

I would not discount the system getting farther west. I am somewhat surprised about how fast mets are nowdays to jump on the model swings. I understand they all jumped NE, but nearly all were pointing WSW and SW yesterday at this time except the GFS. I like to see at least 1-3 runs of the same general thinking before jumping on board. Weak steering can really cause some issues..have seen it before. One must also expect the potential for center relocations toward the deep convection in a sheared envirnoment, although the shear is forecast to weaken in the next 24 hours. I still think the stall and SW motion is still possible, maybe not as likely as this morning, but still possible. It is also possible the system may move WNW and reach the SE TX coast before stalling and turning NE.

Weak steering equals big uncertainty almost always and it can give you some "crazy" tracks in the end.

I was thinking the same thing. Thank you again for taking time out of your day to answer my questions and get on the board. I know you must be busy. As always your information is highly valuable to all of us.

Also keep those emails coming! They really help me a lot as a student and as a weather enthusiast.

[jeff]

Also Jeff, while you are here what is your thinking of this storm getting farther west before the steering currents break down? I know (especially this year) the models have been pretty bad when trying to pin down the change in steering currents.

I would not discount the system getting farther west. I am somewhat surprised about how fast mets are nowdays to jump on the model swings. I understand they all jumped NE, but nearly all were pointing WSW and SW yesterday at this time except the GFS. I like to see at least 1-3 runs of the same general thinking before jumping on board. Weak steering can really cause some issues..have seen it before. One must also expect the potential for center relocations toward the deep convection in a sheared envirnoment, although the shear is forecast to weaken in the next 24 hours. I still think the stall and SW motion is still possible, maybe not as likely as this morning, but still possible. It is also possible the system may move WNW and reach the SE TX coast before stalling and turning NE.

Weak steering equals big uncertainty almost always and it can give you some "crazy" tracks in the end.

I was thinking the same thing. Thank you again for taking time out of your day to answer my questions and get on the board. I know you must be busy. As always your information is highly valuable to all of us.

Also keep those emails coming! They really help me a lot as a student and as a weather enthusiast.

I just got off my afternoon suite of conference calls and everyone has calmed down a bit, so I am not getting inundated with phone calls and e-mail like earlier today. Everyone will get going aagin once NHC puts out a track and error cone, I really thought they were going to pull that trigger at 400pm.

[srainhoutx]

Jeff, I wanted to say thanks for dropping in. We are fortunate to have you, wxman57 and our other Pros that contribute to our board. Our community is all the better for the input you guys provide and for that, we are grateful. We look forward to future updates over the long Holiday weekend and thanks for taking the time and interest for the local SW LA/SE TX folks. Appreciate it, Sir.

[Andrew]

Also Jeff, while you are here what is your thinking of this storm getting farther west before the steering currents break down? I know (especially this year) the models have been pretty bad when trying to pin down the change in steering currents.

I would not discount the system getting farther west. I am somewhat surprised about how fast mets are nowdays to jump on the model swings. I understand they all jumped NE, but nearly all were pointing WSW and SW yesterday at this time except the GFS. I like to see at least 1-3 runs of the same general thinking before jumping on board. Weak steering can really cause some issues..have seen it before. One must also expect the potential for center relocations toward the deep convection in a sheared envirnoment, although the shear is forecast to weaken in the next 24 hours. I still think the stall and SW motion is still possible, maybe not as likely as this morning, but still possible. It is also possible the system may move WNW and reach the SE TX coast before stalling and turning NE.

Weak steering equals big uncertainty almost always and it can give you some "crazy" tracks in the end.

I was thinking the same thing. Thank you again for taking time out of your day to answer my questions and get on the board. I know you must be busy. As always your information is highly valuable to all of us.

Also keep those emails coming! They really help me a lot as a student and as a weather enthusiast.

I just got off my afternoon suite of conference calls and everyone has calmed down a bit, so I am not getting inundated with phone calls and e-mail like earlier today. Everyone will get going aagin once NHC puts out a track and error cone, I really thought they were going to pull that trigger at 400pm.[/quote]

Yea I think they are waiting for recon to fully explore the system. Looks like recon is really close to finding a center.

[jeff]

I was thinking the same thing. Thank you again for taking time out of your day to answer my questions and get on the board. I know you must be busy. As always your information is highly valuable to all of us.

Also keep those emails coming! They really help me a lot as a student and as a weather enthusiast.[/quote]


I just got off my afternoon suite of conference calls and everyone has calmed down a bit, so I am not getting inundated with phone calls and e-mail like earlier today. Everyone will get going aagin once NHC puts out a track and error cone, I really thought they were going to pull that trigger at 400pm.[/quote]

Yea I think they are waiting for recon to fully explore the system. Looks like recon is really close to finding a center.[/quote]

Yea, what would we do without recon.

[jeff]

Looks like they closed off a center on the last pass. Pressure around 1008mb, with 34kt flight level winds (but those were well NE of the center) NO surprise there based on the satellite images.

[tireman4]

I think they may.....

211330 2600N 09053W 9588 00446 0079 +258 +235 212001 002 021 000 00

[srainhoutx]

It looks like we have a rather sharp wind shift. Just perhaps enough to close this off...

000
URNT15 KWBC 012130
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 32 20110901
212030 2613N 09116W 9591 00440 0077 +258 +226 189008 008 022 000 00
212100 2614N 09117W 9587 00443 0077 +258 +228 185007 008 021 000 00
212130 2615N 09119W 9588 00442 0077 +257 +230 184007 007 020 000 00
212200 2616N 09121W 9589 00442 0077 +258 +230 172007 008 020 000 00
212230 2617N 09122W 9587 00445 0078 +258 +234 164005 005 019 000 00
212300 2618N 09124W 9589 00443 0079 +257 +230 145005 005 018 000 00
212330 2619N 09126W 9588 00443 0080 +255 +232 154005 006 018 000 00
212400 2620N 09127W 9589 00445 0080 +257 +227 153005 006 016 001 00
212430 2621N 09129W 9589 00445 0081 +256 +233 154005 006 017 000 00
212500 2622N 09131W 9589 00445 0080 +256 +230 161003 004 017 000 00
212530 2622N 09132W 9589 00443 0079 +260 +220 190002 003 017 000 00
212600 2623N 09134W 9589 00443 0079 +261 +219 003002 003 017 000 00
212630 2624N 09135W 9588 00443 0078 +260 +219 006002 003 018 000 00
212700 2625N 09137W 9588 00442 0078 +260 +221 350004 004 018 000 00
212730 2626N 09139W 9589 00442 0077 +261 +220 339005 006 017 000 00
212800 2627N 09140W 9589 00440 0076 +257 +225 332006 006 019 000 00
212830 2628N 09142W 9588 00441 0077 +254 +232 341006 007 021 000 00
212900 2628N 09144W 9589 00442 0078 +255 +231 345006 007 021 000 00
212930 2629N 09145W 9588 00442 0077 +254 +236 341007 007 019 000 00
213000 2630N 09147W 9588 00441 0076 +254 +236 342006 006 019 000 00

[tireman4]

Here we go folks. Buckle up. It could get bumpy....for some people...

[Andrew]

Yea I think we should have a special advisory soon enough. Should be very interesting to see what the models do tonight now.

[biggerbyte]

Thanks to Jeff and Andrew for restoring proper thinking. Everyone who knows me, knows that models have never been my choice for forecasting anything. However, myself, and most folks in this forum who desperatly need rain are in a panic state. Every negative turns into a life or death battle in our minds. I've personally never been so pessimistic.

You guys are right, and I should have known better. It is what it is, and models are what they are. Back to the, "models are basically useless", camp. At least that gives us all a renewed hope.

[tireman4]

Yes, let me echo this. Thanks to Srain, Wxman 57, Jeff and Andrew ( and others too Candy Cane...eg) for being great amateur and pro mets and helping out with we weather watchers. I want to apologize for giving up on Summer, the tropical season and calling this the WORST SUMMER EVER. I had too much Dr Pepper before my post and I was a little under the weather. Thanks for listening. Back OT...

[jeff]

Yes, let me echo this. Thanks to Srain, Wxman 57, Jeff and Andrew ( and others too Candy Cane...eg) for being great amateur and pro mets and helping out with we weather watchers. I want to apologize for giving up on Summer, the tropical season and calling this the WORST SUMMER EVER. I had too much Dr Pepper before my post and I was a little under the weather. Thanks for listening. Back OT...

Well it is the worst summer ever and one of the worst droughts ever...we are at the breaking point and need releif

[Andrew]

Thanks to Jeff and Andrew for restoring proper thinking. Everyone who knows me, knows that models have never been my choice for forecasting anything. However, myself, and most folks in this forum who desperatly need rain are in a panic state. Every negative turns into a life or death battle in our minds. I've personally never been so pessimistic.

You guys are right, and I should have known better. It is what it is, and models are what they are. Back to the, "models are basically useless", camp. At least that gives us all a renewed hope.

It is all good dude. I mean Jeff and I aren't saying we will get a lot of rain but we just don't want anyone to jump off the bridge. With the LLC we should have a really good run tonight and along with the fact that we are dealing with weak steering currents, it could be a tricky forecast.

[desiredwxgd]

LCH AFD:

"THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS WEAKENING ACROSS
THE BROAD LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. A NOAA
PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...FROM EAST-TO-WEST. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...A TIDAL PILEUP IS EXPECTED DEPENDENT ON THE DURATION
OF THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.

THIS EVOLVING SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY."

[mckinne63]

I am trying to remain hopeful. Really I am.

Thanks so much to all the weather folks here posting. While I don't understand it all, I am and have been following this forum. Of course, my friends think I am now a weather person as I repeat most of what I have read here.