Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

[srainhoutx]

Lake Charles radar:

[kellybell4770]

Lake Charles radar:

if only that could move just a bit west

[Rip76]

Not trying to be funny here, but is Lee starting to move west?

[randybpt]

Rip, I'm here southeast of beaumont and we got a good rain already and if radar is right this thing is headed due west I may be wrong. But looks like I will get some beneficial rain.

[srainhoutx]

Well if the 12Z NAM is to be believed, a turn W and then back out in the Gulf S of Lake Charles is in the offing...

[Rip76]

Could just be "filling in" to the west, but I'm looking at the center too..

[Bluefalcon]

The last 30 mins of radar loop shows a definite westward movement.

[singlemom]

Not trying to be funny here, but is Lee starting to move west?

Looking at radars, it's pretty clear cut to me that the bands are indeed moving west. But, it'd be our luck that all the outer bands in the world could be forcing their way towards Houston and the death ridge will set up a road block at 59. Does anyone else see that or am I just wishcasting?

[tireman4]

I am looking at the radar. Now, I am dumber than a box of rocks, but I swear the rainbands are moving west. I swear I am seeing a whole bunch of something heading our way. Now, I am sure I am wrong. Some amateur or professional meteorologist please confirm or correct what I am seeing. (Srain, Wxman 57, Jeff, Candy Cane....).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

[srainhoutx]

Let's see what the GFS and the Euro offer. There have been subtle hints that Lee would head a touch further W than expected during the stalling phase and that the trough is not as strong as suggested the past few days. We will see. That said, many have suggested that a stalled tropical system near the Coastal areas of TX/LA can throw curveball or two...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE APPROACHING ATCHAFALAYA BAY...HEAVY RAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES LASHING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY
ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H AND A GUST TO
54 MPH...87 KM/H WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE NOAA BUOY LOCATED
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND A
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS
METROPOLITAN AREA THIS MORNING.

A STORM SURGE OF 4 FEET WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT SHELL BEACH
LOUISIANA. A SURGE HEIGHT OF 3.5 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AT NEW CANAL STATION...AND A SURGE HEIGHT OF 2 FEET
HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[biggerbyte]

Radar shows Lee coming our way. Folks, it is so close now. Oh, dear God, can it be? Here at the final hour? Somebody tell me it is real? Nature can't be this cruel...@?@

[Rip76]

I still think if it does, dry air wins.

[srainhoutx]

RECON center pass suggests a slight shift W, if that. Latest visible imagery would seem to suggest that as well...

Edit to add: There ate two vorts rotating around the broad center that can be seen on visible imagery...

NHC discussion snip:

THERE ARE TWO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORWARD MOTION OF 005/05 KT
IS BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION BETWEEN THOSE TWO VORTICES...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE RECON 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER.

[jeff]

I am looking at the radar. Now, I am dumber than a box of rocks, but I swear the rainbands are moving west. I swear I am seeing a whole bunch of something heading our way. Now, I am sure I am wrong. Some amateur or professional meteorologist please confirm or correct what I am seeing. (Srain, Wxman 57, Jeff, Candy Cane....).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

The rain sheild on the west side is expanding some to the west, but the movement of the mean center is still north and faster than expected. This ting is already on the coast, much sooner than was expected yesterday. Outflow is expanding to the NW due to the upper trough interaction with the system.

Rain shield could get into Liberty and Chambers counties and then pull up stationary. This is following closely what was expected to happen with the best chances for rain tonight and Sunday before a cold front heads southward on the backside bringing in very dry air.

Of note is gusty winds this morning over the area 15-25mph with gust to 35mph...fire danger is critical and RFW are now in effect W of I-45

[skidog38]

it sure does seem like an eye is forming off the coast

[jeff]

it sure does seem like an eye is forming off the coast

No eye...dry air is overspreading the core and exposing the multiple vort centers. Mean motion of the broad grye is off toward the north with the vorts moving around the broad center. System is looking more sub-tropical than tropical

[biggerbyte]

Radar depicts a different story. And if this rain stops just shy of Montgomery and Harris Counties, I will personally drive over and slap somebody named Lee.

[Bluefalcon]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 15:34Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 15:13:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°05'N 92°16'W (29.0833N 92.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 79 miles (128 km) to the S (190°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,355m (4,446ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 151 nautical miles (174 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 220° at 32kts (From the SW at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the ESE (122°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:14:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (80°) from the flight level center

[jeff]

12Z NAM does show a vort moving into extreme SE TX late tonight pushing some rain across Gavleston Bay and SW (possibly getting into Harris County). Then it sends the system southward deep back into the Gulf? Based on WV images showing very dry air pouring SSE over TX, I am not sure that rain will be able to make it west of Liberty. Will be close, what falls will also mainly be light.